Lynn Wombold addresses what we can learn from the new census, including changes in the population and geographic base.
00:01 Welcome to Census 2010 and the Data User
00:03 I'm Lynn Wombold with Esri.
00:05 I'm a demographer, and the other geographers allow me to sit in once in awhile.
00:15 This morning we're gong to talk about Census 2010…
00:18 …which is the benchmark of all demographic data for the next decade.
00:24 Before we get too far into this, I'd like to tell you yes, I have a lot of tables…
00:29 …and facts and figures and things in here.
00:32 These presentations are going to be available online.
00:36 There will be a conference proceedings CD, but you will also be able to get this online.
00:41 So don't make yourselves crazy trying to copy down all the facts and figures.
00:45 You'll be able to get it later.
00:48 Okay, let's get started here.
00:51 When last we met, last year, we were talking about what we expected to happen with Census 2010.
00:58 This time we can talk about what's actually going…
01:02 …what has happened and what is still happening with Census 2010.
01:06 So I'm going to speak a little bit about what's new…
01:09 …and we're going to take a look at the counts themselves.
01:13 What we expected to find, what we've actually found…
01:17 …and, of course, the change over the past ten years.
01:21 The wonderful thing about a decennial census is that it gives you pause…
01:25 …to turn and see some of the longer term trends.
01:30 Sort of seeing the forest as opposed to just looking at the trees.
01:34 You see the big picture.
01:36 Demographic change tend not to be sudden.
01:39 It's not economic change, come on.
01:42 A lot of the trends occur over a very long period of time.
01:45 And if you're not a demographer, you can miss them.
01:48 So I'm here to help you see what we think are the big trends that we've seen so far.
01:53 And of course, what would we be without looking at geographic change, eh?
01:59 So. First of all, what to expect.
02:06 The data that's been released so far, we've got first the reapportionment counts.
02:12 We have gotten the redistricting data.
02:16 And those are the main reasons for the census.
02:18 We could actually just pretty much stop right now.
02:21 The apportionment counts are what you need.
02:23 That's your constitutional mandate for the census.
02:27 And the redistricting data is all released on time.
02:32 That's what a lot of the presentation this morning will be about, so…
02:40 The reapportionment counts we got actually 10 days early.
02:45 They're due by December 31st of the census year…
02:47 …we picked them up 10 days early, thank you Census Bureau.
02:52 And that's what's going on right now, is reapportioning the House of Representatives.
02:59 Oh, my gosh.
03:03 I see what the problem is. My apologies. This is last year's presentation.
03:11 This is where we are in terms of what's new with this census.
03:18 Right now we have the apportionment counts, we have the redistricting data.
03:22 Summary file one is in progress.
03:24 As of about a week ago, I think we had 12 states there.
03:29 So what's new with this particular census…
03:31 …just you haven't been paying attention, weren't here last year, whatever.
03:36 When they finish with releasing Summary file one…
03:40 …state by state, that's pretty much going to be it.
03:44 There is no sample beta with this particular census.
03:47 We're done now.
03:48 Short form only, there you go.
03:51 So. It also happens to be the most expensive census to date.
03:56 Not surprising there.
03:58 It did come in under budget.
04:00 According to the bureau, everything came in under budget, so we're good.
04:04 But 14.5 billion by comparison in 2000, it was 4.5 billion.
04:14 So you're looking at an increase, either total or per capita of about 200 percent.
04:21 That's more or less how it breaks down over the past hundred years or so, quite an increase.
04:27 So when you look at the difference, the decrease in the number of questions and the amount of data…
04:33 …the increase in the cost, I think if you put the two trends together…
04:38 …maybe they could just text it to us the next time and save a little bit of money.
04:43 Anyhow, let's take a look at the counts and what we've got going on here.
04:55 Reapportionment counts, like I said, we got early.
04:58 The redistricting counts we also got a little bit early.
05:01 Those are due out, again, by federal law, Public Law 94171.
05:06 Have to be released within one year of the census and so they were.
05:10 The Census Bureau has been releasing a little bit earlier.
05:14 So question of the day is, What did we expect?
05:20 For reapportionment, these numbers were put together by Kim Brace of Election Data Services…
05:27 …but they were based upon our state population totals.
05:32 And prior to receiving the accounts, it was last fall that they put this out…
05:36 …this is what they expected to see in terms of reapportionment of the House of Representatives.
05:42 As you can see, quite a gain in Texas.
05:47 Quite a gain across the south actually.
05:50 Loss in the Midwest, loss in the northeast, and the west picking up a few states.
05:57 The trick with Congressional reapportionment, though, is that it is not just total population.
06:03 By law they also have to take into account federal military…
06:08 …and civilian employees overseas and their dependants.
06:12 At least that can be allocated back to a state.
06:15 So the formula is a bit more complex than just state resident population totals.
06:21 So this is what we expected to see.
06:26 This is what we see.
06:29 This is exactly what happened.
06:30 Kim Brace got the numbers exactly right.
06:34 If you look at the changes by region, that's what you get.
06:37 A net gain of seven in the south, the west picked up four seats, and the losses, of course…
06:45 …continue to be concentrated primarily in the northeast.
06:48 They lost five seats there, and the Midwest, they lost six seats.
06:53 I should point out, though, among the states that are losing seats…
07:00 …they didn't really lose population except for Michigan.
07:02 That was the only state that actually had a decline in population.
07:07 The loss of a seat has more to do with population size…
07:11 …relative to the other states than it does to loss or gain of the population.
07:18 The other thing that was projected accurately…
07:21 …was that they thought maybe North Carolina was close to picking up one more seat.
07:28 As it turns out, the last seat in the House was assigned to Minnesota.
07:33 North Carolina was close primarily because of the military overseas population…
07:38 …that actually would be assigned back to North Carolina.
07:43 They picked up the last seat in 2000, barely edging out Utah.
07:47 So I guess it was Utah's turn this time.
07:50 Maybe in 2020 they will get another one.
07:53 But that's what we see in terms of reapportionment.
07:57 Right now what you see is virtually every state and local entity now dealing with redistricting data.
08:05 We don't really do redistricting, my team doesn't…
08:08 …but what I'm going to show you is what we have seen in the data so far…
08:13 …that will certainly affect them.
08:15 Now a year ago, we told you this is more or less what we expected to find…
08:19 …for population counts from 2010 Census.
08:24 We expected the total pop would be around 310 million as of April 1 based upon our updates.
08:31 We expected that almost 76 percent of the population would be voters 18 and over…
08:38 …and that's what we expected to see in terms of the race and Hispanic origin distribution.
08:45 And what I should point out here is that the tables and the graphs…
08:49 …that I will be showing you, I'm showing race as non-Hispanic.
08:55 In other words, there's no double-counting going on here, zero-sum gain.
09:01 So this is what we expected, and this is what we found.
09:08 Little high in the population, it came in slightly under at 309 million…
09:14 …rounding of course; 76 percent are voters.
09:18 And as it turns out, the race Hispanic origin distribution…
09:22 …is virtually identical to what we had projected.
09:35 What it shows us though, moving on, is one of the major trends…
09:40 …that demographers have seen for quite some time.
09:43 Whether all data users take a look at or not over the course of the decade I'm not too sure.
09:49 But I can tell you that everybody dealing with redistricting now is going to be looking at it.
09:55 One of the major trends, really, is the increasing diversity of the U.S. population.
10:00 And that's one of the things that I wanted to focus on today.
10:05 Now this is taking the same pie chart that I showed you before…
10:08 …but here I'm showing you the proportion of change by race and Hispanic origin.
10:16 The net gain for the U.S. was 27.3 million.
10:22 And what you can see here is that well over half of that net gain is due to…
10:28 …the increase in the Hispanic origin population. 56 percent.
10:35 A distant second place, of course, would be the Asian Pacific Islander population.
10:42 And what you see is the White non-Hispanic population contributing only eight percent…
10:50 …of the net increase in the U.S. population.
10:54 If you look at the growth rates, you can see the difference.
10:59 Hispanic origin, that's 43 percent of the course of the decade.
11:05 What you see is the White non-Hispanic population increased only 1.2 percent.
11:13 That is not an annual number.
11:15 That's for the 10 years.
11:19 So the overall change in the total population was not even 10 percent for the entire decade.
11:27 64 percent of the population is White non-Hispanic or Anglo is a term we use in New Mexico.
11:37 Basically pulls down the growth rate.
11:41 Hispanic population of 43 percent but, as you can see, the Asian Pacific Islander…
11:46 …the base is smaller but the rate of growth is almost the same at 42.7.
11:52 Other rapidly growing groups, the multiracial population, of course.
11:58 Almost a 30 percent increase over the course of the decade.
12:03 And this is, of course, the first decade that we've had the opportunity to measure it.
12:07 It was Census 2000 that introduced the possibility of reporting more than one race, so.
12:15 The only thing you can conclude from looking at this and looking at the growth rates…
12:20 …over the course of the past decade is that diversity is the key.
12:24 That is the future.
12:25 That's what's going on.
12:29 Now if you want to measure diversity, what we did was we came up with an index…
12:33 …after 2000 that we thought would help us out.
12:36 In effect what this index does is it shows us the likelihood of two people from the same area…
12:44 …drawn at random, being from different race ethnic groups.
12:49 That's all it is.
12:51 The values range from zero, which is absolutely no diversity…
12:56 …everybody in the area, same race or ethnic group.
13:00 It doesn't say anything about the composition…
13:02 …it doesn't tell you which group, it just says they're all the same.
13:05 To one hundred.
13:07 At one hundred it means that the population of the area is equally divided…
13:12 …among all the race ethnic groups.
13:15 As you can see, the U.S. diversity index has definitely increased in the past 10 years.
13:21 And for the record, yes, we estimated a diversity index of 61 before we saw the census.
13:29 If you really want to see what's going on, though, it does help to drill down and look at…
13:34 …this is county-level data, the diversity index in 2000.
13:38 The first year.
13:39 As you can see, the most diverse areas are definitely along the southern border and up the coastal areas.
13:50 Points of immigration, no doubt.
13:54 In 2000, there were four states where White non-Hispanics became the minority.
14:05 New Mexico, California.
14:08 For the purposes here we treat the District of Columbia as a state.
14:11 Definitely the District, and Hawaii.
14:17 2010, another state joined the list…Texas.
14:23 And we have a few other states that are definitely headed in that direction.
14:28 If these trends continue, you can expect to see Florida, Georgia, Maryland, and Nevada join the list.
14:36 The thing of it is, 15 states experienced a decline.
14:41 Not necessarily in overall population, but in the White non-Hispanic definitely.
14:45 While the Hispanic population actually doubled in nine states.
14:51 What makes it interesting, though, is if you can look at the actual change.
14:58 The areas that were the least diverse…back one…that's 2000.
15:07 As you can see, the areas that are least diverse are up in New England, West Virginia, North Dakota.
15:15 2010, and there's your change.
15:21 All aspects, all areas, the diversity of the population is definitely increasing.
15:28 It is a clear trend, and if this hasn't convinced you, take a look at it by age.
15:37 This particular graph shows you the change for the total population and the population 18 and over.
15:44 The adult population.
15:47 And the growth rates are quite a bit different.
15:51 For most of the groups, the population 18 and over appears to be growing more quickly.
15:58 This quite frankly is just an effect of aging, that's all it is.
16:02 The population's getting older, deal with it.
16:04 It's also reflecting immigration.
16:09 Where you really see the contrast, though…
16:11 …is when you look at the under 18 population compared to the over 18 population.
16:20 And what we see here, plain and simple, is that in the under 18 population…
16:26 …White non-Hispanic, black non-Hispanic, American Indian non-Hispanic…
16:33 …the children are decreasing.
16:39 Adults still growing, but children, not so much.
16:43 Where you see the growth in the under 18 population and the children, multiracial, definitely.
16:53 Asian Pacific Islander, Hispanic origin.
16:59 The fastest growing group here is the multiracial group.
17:03 It is the youngest.
17:05 Of course, we've only been tracking it recently, but it is showing the fastest growth.
17:14 Again, looking at the pie chart and looking at children.
17:18 Population under 18 by race.
17:20 Hispanic origin, this is what we see as of 2010.
17:27 If you remember, there were five states now in which White non-Hispanic became a minority.
17:33 But when you look to the children…
17:34 …there are now 11 states in which White non-Hispanic has become the minority.
17:42 The proportion, too, is different.
17:45 Among children, it's only 54 percent.
17:50 If you look at adults only, it's 67 percent.
17:56 And the proportion of Hispanic children, it's almost one in four.
18:01 Whereas, if you look at it for the adult population, it's only 14 percent.
18:06 It's quite a bit different.
18:08 If you want a glimpse of the future.
18:13 On the one hand, we have current voters population 18-plus…
18:17 …on the other hand we have future voters population under 18.
18:23 This is what you're looking at in terms of the diversity of the population of voters in the future.
18:33 Now this isn't really a projection.
18:35 I'm not extrapolating births here or immigration trends.
18:40 These people are already here, they've already been born, that's the future right there.
18:47 Increasing diversity.
18:51 Now it will change over time, to be sure.
18:55 Because frankly, we are looking at changes in immigration rates and changes in fertility.
19:01 That kind of goes without saying.
19:06 Immigration has cut back.
19:09 In fact, immigration from the United States has increased.
19:13 It's entirely possible there are some early signs right now…
19:16 …that we are now looking at net outflow in terms of migration streams.
19:23 The diversity is there, though, as you can see.
19:26 Birth rates are dropping, migration is changing.
19:30 So whether or not it continues in the same vein will be interesting see over the course of the decade.
19:36 I can tell you yes, that birth rates are dropping for all race origin groups.
19:42 Not multiracial, we don't have that data yet.
19:45 They actually introduced a change to the birth certificate in 2003.
19:50 But as of 2008, only 30 states are actually reporting it…
19:55 …so you don't really get a feel for multiracial fertility rates just yet.
20:01 Right now though, they're pretty much down across the board.
20:04 Seriously, if you want to see how the economy is doing…
20:11 …forget the Index of Consumer Confidence, just look at the birth rates.
20:15 Trust me, it's a great early warning signal.
20:18 Okay, now, let's see if you've all been paying attention.
20:22 Pop quiz time.
20:28 You've seen the trends in diversity so far.
20:32 When do you think that children in all areas…
20:35 …well, let's just say for the U.S. as a whole, will become minority White non-Hispanic?
20:41 Any guesses? 2016? Anybody? Too early, you're right. 2040? It's too late, you're right.
20:53 2023? A few votes for 2023. All right, 2032. It's moving quickly.
21:05 On the rise, current trends, the decline in immigration and fertility rates change it.
21:11 Okay, now we know the pop under 18 is moving more quickly.
21:15 What about adults?
21:18 And here we're looking at just when the children become minority, when do the adults follow suit?
21:24 When can you expect that? Ten years later? No takers. Twenty? A few. Twenty-five.
21:38 Anybody going for the long run?
21:42 Another twenty years after the children.
21:46 Okay. Now for the bonus round.
21:50 When will the Hispanic population become the majority group?
21:55 Any guesses? 20 years? Okay? 50 years? 30? 40? Ah, 40 has it.
22:14 You have been paying attention.
22:15 Now, either that or I've stacked the deck fairly well.
22:22 Diversity, as I said, is one of the major trends.
22:26 The other one that we're going to take a look at is housing.
22:31 Let's face it, this was the predominant trend in the past decade.
22:36 Fascinating stuff.
22:37 Now you understand I'm still just working off of the redistricting data that we got.
22:42 So I have total housing units, occupied housing units…
22:47 …which the Census Bureau added this time to the redistricting data.
22:51 Thank you, Census Bureau.
22:53 And there are also a few profiles out there for higher levels, the U.S. and the states that I've looked at.
22:59 But most of this data really is based upon dual housing units/occupied housing units.
23:07 Now the trend in diversity has been going on for years.
23:10 The change in the housing market, we are really looking at the past.
23:15 And as you will see, the present and probably the future for the next few years.
23:23 What Census 2010 is going to do is document both the rise and fall in the housing market.
23:30 So I'm going to take you back a little bit to the point…
23:35 …at which the housing market really started to change.
23:38 And that would be in 2005.
23:41 For anybody who has been reading our trend analysis annually…
23:45 …I'm sure you all have…fascinated by demographic trend analysis.
23:50 2005 is when we started to call warning shots.
23:55 The housing market was booming.
23:57 Home value appreciation was incredible.
24:01 But that's what started us wondering.
24:03 We took a look at it and said, Really?
24:07 Because the appreciation in home value was way exceeding the change in household income.
24:16 And yet we were also seeing rates of home ownership increase…problem!
24:23 …So we did take a look at the mortgage market.
24:26 We did take a look at who was buying and where.
24:30 And we did expect that appreciation was going to start to slow down.
24:34 What we were saying was, there is a problem here.
24:38 Home value cannot appreciate that rapidly that fast for that many years.
24:43 And it had been going up.
24:45 So the Federal Reserve Board, fortunately, saw the same thing…
24:49 …and they had fired the first warning shot.
24:51 Hello, we're going to increase interest rates.
24:55 And yes, that was one of the accelerants in this trend, low interest rates.
25:01 So, 2006, the question was, What's the future of the housing market?
25:07 Mortgage rates were definitely rising now.
25:11 The inventories were going up too.
25:14 And it was at this point in time that construction really had contributed…
25:20 …enormously to the housing inventory.
25:24 It had kept the economy going.
25:26 It was one of the few growth sectors in the economy at the time.
25:29 We weren't adding that many jobs.
25:32 However, like I said, the warning shots were there.
25:35 And 2006 is when everybody started to see it fall apart, no doubt.
25:42 Slower growth, definitely.
25:44 New home sales were already down.
25:47 However, as of 2006 we hadn't seen the economic fallout.
25:53 We saw that in 2007.
25:56 Then the question become, What just happened?
26:00 And did somebody get the number of that bus?
26:04 Mortgage rates were increasing, and at this point in time, we saw the side effect.
26:09 The change in the housing market touched the economy.
26:13 GDP dropped one percentage point.
26:17 And when it's growing at three percent a year, one percentage point matters.
26:22 And there was a problem.
26:23 There was very serious problems indicated.
26:27 In hindsight, yes, the National Bureau of Economic Research did say…
26:32 …that the Great Recession started in December of 2007.
26:36 This is based upon our updates, which we did a little bit earlier.
26:39 And like I said, the warning signs were there.
26:42 A lot of people assumed that we were headed into recession at this point in time.
26:47 By 2008, however, what we saw was that the problem was much larger than anybody had anticipated.
26:56 Where a lot of people were expecting it to start getting better, it was getting worse.
27:02 More things were coming to light, it was more or less like…
27:06 …watching Rupert Murdoch's newspapers fall apart.
27:11 It became deeper, it became more endemic.
27:15 It was touching every aspect of the economy.
27:18 And what you had then was the housing market setting up a feedback group.
27:23 Because at this point in time, you still had delinquencies, interest rates were going up…
27:28 …there were foreclosures, and now people were losing their jobs which was adding to the foreclosures.
27:37 So it became a vicious cycle, and it became problematic.
27:42 2008, in fact, was the first year that we actually saw home value decline.
27:49 It has in the past, but it hadn't in 10 years, so it was something to see.
27:55 What we also saw here, too, were that the inventories had continued to grow.
28:00 It took the construction industry quite a while to actually slam on the breaks.
28:06 And really, for about a year what we had were gross sectors…
28:10 …in things like lawyers to get you out of real estate contracts.
28:17 People who were paying attention in tracking foreclosures.
28:21 Talk about depressing! But yes, those were the growth sectors.
28:26 At this point in time, too, population growth slowed.
28:30 Fertility rates were down.
28:31 I mean, we didn't have the numbers then, but demographer, hello, studied them for years.
28:37 I knew they were down. Everybody did.
28:40 The population just flat-out quit moving.
28:43 They didn't move into attractive areas, areas where home value depreciated.
28:49 They didn't move out of areas that they had been leaving.
28:53 Out-migration stopped, in-migration stopped.
28:56 Everything slowed down.
29:00 So by 2009, what people were saying was, What recovery?
29:07 Technically the Great Recession did end in June of 2009.
29:12 That's how the economists called it, 18 months long.
29:17 The problem we have, of course, is the unemployment.
29:21 It is what they call a lagging economic indicator.
29:24 It is not the first sign of a recession.
29:28 But it will certainly knock the steam out of recovery…
29:30 …if you do not get unemployment down and job growth back up.
29:36 It's really fairly straightforward.
29:41 What we had on top of all of this, first the interest rates.
29:46 When those went up, then we had a problem.
29:49 A lot of people did go into foreclosure.
29:52 It was creative financing.
29:55 It was the imbalance between household income and home value.
30:01 But when the housing market collapse touched the entire economy…
30:05 …now you have unemployment driving foreclosures.
30:09 What all of this did was to produce an enormous increase in vacancies…home vacancies.
30:17 And that's the problem that we're looking at now.
30:21 The vacancy rate in 2000 was 9 percent.
30:25 That's fairly low.
30:28 By 2008, it was up at 10.5 percent.
30:33 So based upon all of this, what did we expect?
30:37 We expected to find 132 million housing units, we expected the vacancy rate…
30:44 …would be closer to 12 percent, we expected to find a little over 116 million households.
30:54 In a nutshell, we expected an increase of 15.8 million in the housing inventory…
31:02 …and an increase of 4.6 million in the number of vacant housing units.
31:07 In other words, almost 30 percent of the total.
31:11 We also expected that owner occupancy would decrease.
31:19 It was 66.2 percent in 2000 and we knew it was going down.
31:24 So what do we actually find?
31:31 Fewer housing units if Census 2010 actually counted them all correctly.
31:38 Vacancy rate a little bit lower than what we had anticipated.
31:43 Number of households almost exactly what we were calling.
31:48 And the rate of home ownership actually down below what we had.
31:52 Hah! And they thought we were pessimistic.
31:57 So that's what we found.
31:59 So what was the net effect over the whole decade?
32:02 The rise and fall of the housing market?
32:07 This is what we expected in change based upon our 2010 updates that would be in the orange there.
32:15 What we actually see according to the census is, of course, in the white.
32:24 The changes were very close.
32:27 Looks like we over estimated vacant units a bit but, again, that depends upon…
32:31 …whether or not Census 2010 got it all right.
32:34 Unfortunately, median home value is no longer available.
32:39 We can't calibrate that.
32:41 However, since that was one of the culprits behind the change in the housing market…
32:45 …I had to throw it up there.
32:48 To understand what these trends convey, though, you need to break it down geographically.
32:55 What you see here is a disparity.
32:58 There is a difference between population change and housing change.
33:03 Now to a certain degree, that can be expected.
33:08 But the regional differences do emphasize the gap…
33:12 …particularly in the northeast and the Midwest as you can see.
33:16 There are some reasons why you can see housing unit growth increase.
33:22 If an area in 2000, for example, had a fairly good sized demand…
33:29 …a good, robust housing market, they probably had a low vacancy rate and room for more building.
33:37 The other thing you need to take into account with vacancies, of course is seasonal units.
33:41 According to the census, a seasonal unit would be tabulated as vacant…
33:48 …because it is not occupied all year round, usual place of residence.
33:53 So. And there was definitely an increase in the number of seasonal units…
33:58 …over the course of the decade.
34:01 Some of what fueled boon was demographic change.
34:06 You had the coming of age of Gen Y, and you had the Baby Boomers looking at it going…
34:11 …Oh, my gosh, look at the increase in home value.
34:15 I'll put my retirement money in real estate.
34:19 So yes, they did.
34:21 So you had investment opportunities…
34:23 …there were second homes, there were demographic changes that affected this as well.
34:30 And that has to do with some of the discrepancies.
34:32 So let's break it down a little bit more.
34:36 There you see the change in vacant units versus total housing units.
34:41 Yipes. There definitely is a gap there.
34:48 But can we account for it?
34:52 Here we're looking at seasonal housing units as well.
34:58 There was quite a bit of a growth market there.
35:02 But what you can see from this is that the seasonal vacants do not account…
35:08 …for the incredible growth of vacant housing units.
35:13 In fact, the increase in seasonal units represents only 23 percent of the total increase in vacant units.
35:23 That's not what was going on here.
35:26 What's going here is over-building, plain and simple.
35:32 And there you have it.
35:33 The past decade, the current problem, and the next few years.
35:40 Vacant units are still sitting out there.
35:42 There is a huge inventory sitting out there of homes.
35:47 And home value isn't going to change.
35:49 Things aren't going to change until that inventory comes down a little bit.
35:54 Ironically, there are still some growth markets out there.
35:58 They're for rentals.
36:01 Some cities are now coming up with shortage in their rental housing market…
36:06 …but overall for single family homes and owner-occupied homes, no.
36:14 Until the inventory comes down, there's your problem.
36:18 The housing unit growth way exceeded population demand.
36:23 And again, these trends do become clearer when you take it down.
36:27 There we have Census 2000, those are the vacancy rates.
36:33 The darker areas that you see on this map are highlighting primarily seasonal areas, really.
36:41 If you look at the upper portion of Michigan, if you look at Colorado…
36:47 …you practically see the ridgeline of the Rockies right there.
36:52 Seasonal units for the most part.
36:54 Areas that are very light here, where you have a very low vacancy rate.
36:59 Could be one of two things.
37:00 Either very little activity at the time or an area in which the vacancy rate…
37:06 …had grown too low because of higher demand.
37:12 There's the same map in 2010.
37:16 A little bit darker, a little bit different.
37:21 And yes, it is showing areas of growth from 2000 to 2010.
37:27 Where you can really see it, though, is when you look at the change…
37:32 …2000 to 2010 the increase in vacancies.
37:36 At this point in time a lot of your seasonal areas have dropped off the map.
37:41 What you're looking at here are housing markets that overheated and over built.
37:50 Quite simply, here in the darker areas the housing activity exceeded…
37:54 …either demand or they ability to pay the mortgage.
38:01 And this is going to dampen activity in the near future.
38:04 Until this inventory comes down, it is going to affect housing change in the near future.
38:11 Because the bottom line is this, this is a maturing society.
38:16 Growth rates are coming down.
38:19 Fertility rates are coming down.
38:21 Birth rates are down right now.
38:26 National trends, of course, don't affect every market equally.
38:32 There's your population change.
38:36 You can see areas of activity on there, to be sure, in the south, along the coast, and the west.
38:43 But as you can see, for most of the country, there isn't that much in the way of population change.
38:50 Variation in local markets, to be sure.
38:54 But hopefully this has shown you a little bit about…
38:57 …how these national trends can affect your local markets.
39:03 So finally, let's take a look at geographic change.
39:09 Very important if you want to compare 2000 to 2010.
39:14 Keep in mind, please, all areas are subject to change.
39:19 The Census Bureau got very busy in the past decade, and you will see all areas changing.
39:28 They've adjusted state lines, they've adjusted county lines.
39:32 There are differences here.
39:37 The statistical areas, oh for Pete's sake, those are always subject to change.
39:41 You know that.
39:42 Tracts tends to be fairly constant.
39:44 Block groups, not so much.
39:48 CDP census designated places.
39:51 Ah, they're not incorporated so technically they're statistical.
39:56 They come and go with every census to there's always change there.
40:02 Metropolitan areas will not change just yet.
40:05 But that's coming.
40:06 And of course, all of the favorite areas, at least judging by what users call for on our website ZIP Codes…
40:16 …polygons, that sort of a thing, they are all subject to change as well.
40:21 Because the underlying geography has changed.
40:27 So this little table shows you change in inventory, inventory only.
40:38 Yes, there are a couple new counties in Alaska.
40:40 Alaska does tend to be rather casual with their counties.
40:45 Tracts, yes. Block groups…blocks.
40:48 The Census Bureau got real busy with the water blocks.
40:51 A lot of those are water blocks.
40:53 But as you can see, and this is just changing inventory, this isn't change in the boundaries of these places.
41:01 And you need to be careful if you're going in to do a comparison.
41:09 Quite simply, you can have an area that has exactly the same geocode, same everything…
41:18 …and yet the boundary has changed.
41:21 You really do need to pay attention to what you're looking at.
41:28 So, we're to expect these? Yes.
41:30 Because the underlying blocks and block groups have changed.
41:34 If you look at a new ZIP Code, if you run a new polygon, a new circle…
41:39 …if you're a favorite site, your numbers will be different.
41:45 What you need to bridge the two is a correspondence file.
41:53 We're building that right now.
41:55 We're using boundary files, we're using coordinates, that's how we know that there are so many changes.
42:01 We are also using the Census Bureau's tabulation block to tabulation block correspondence file.
42:07 Basically everything we can get our hands on.
42:11 Why do you need a correspondence file?
42:13 This is a great example.
42:16 This little block group is shown in black in one corner.
42:21 That's your 2000 boundary.
42:26 In Cyan there, the larger boundary, that's the 2010.
42:32 It's a little block group in California.
42:36 It's in the same neighborhood, it has exactly the same geocode.
42:42 2010 and 2000.
42:44 But as you can see, it is not the same block group.
42:50 Don't go by the geocodes.
42:53 You need a correspondence file if you're going to do the comparison.
42:57 Just be careful.
42:58 Like I said, the Census Bureau did realign a lot of the boundaries.
43:02 They invested a lot in it, and we see changes.
43:06 We have seen blocks that were assigned to one county now being assigned to a different county.
43:12 So yeah, there was a lot of realignment of blocks and really yes, you do need to pay attention to it.
43:19 So, what are our coming attractions?
43:23 New Congressional Districts, the point of the whole census…
43:26 …will be introduced in 2013 with the 113th Congress.
43:31 They're busy redoing the redistricting…they're redistricting right now.
43:35 Revised metropolitan areas for those of you who like micropolitan, metropolitan.
43:41 Basically the core base statistical areas.
43:44 Those will be realigned in 2013 as well.
43:49 The release of SF1 will be done in August.
43:55 And what's going on right now is the CQR count question resolution program.
44:01 This is where local communities have the opportunity to challenge their Census 2010 counts.
44:07 And yes, there may be changes.
44:11 That will be forthcoming.
44:13 So we have my team, the data development team.
44:18 We do appreciate your interest in demographic data and Census 2010.
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