Paul Zwick from the University of Florida presents urban and regional modeling scenarios for Orange County, Florida, through the MyRegion Regional Visioning Project.
00:01 What I'd like to present, was asked today to present an idea or concept we've been working on.
00:05 And I was kidding with Carl the last time I saw him at a presentation. I love this, at least this time it's 35 minutes…
00:12 …but I love this thing where they say, You have 15 minutes; tell us about your life's work.
00:16 Okay, we'll give it a shot, okay. So the…we've been working on this for a good while.
00:22 Peggy Carr is one of the most creative people I think I've ever met in my life. She's a landscape architect.
00:27 We work with architects, engineers, environmental scientists, those people like that.
00:31 My background is civil engineering, systems ecology, and urban planning, so I'm seriously schizophrenic.
00:39 And before I start, I'd, I'd really like to just take a short time to give this little anecdotic story that I think sets where we're at.
00:49 And it's, it's not meant to be funny, but it's meant to pontificate without actually looking like I'm doing that, I guess.
00:57 So there's a sparrow and a robin and they're up north. And this…it's, winter is approaching and the sparrow says…
01:06 …to the robin, "We better get going. You know, I mean, it's…winter's going to set in; we're going to be in trouble."
01:10 And the robin says, "No sweat, don't worry, I've got it. I know the system. I'll take care of you. I'm your friend."
01:17 A little while later, a big storm comes in and it's starting to snow and freeze, and the robin goes…
01:21 …"Wow, we got to get out of here. We're in trouble." And they start flying south and the sparrow says to the robin…
01:27 …"Robin, my wings are icing. I'm in trouble." And the robin says, "You're on your own."
01:31 About that time, the sparrow starts spiraling down out of the sky and he falls in this really big pile of steamy…
01:38 …moist, wet, soft cow manure. And he's going, "Man, I'm going to die and I'm in a pile of manure."
01:46 And he realizes it's melting his wings, okay?
01:48 And he's going to be able to live. And he starts to chirp and sing and everything and a cat comes by and eats him.
01:54 And there's some, there's some morals to this, okay. And the first moral is, not everybody that says they are your friend is, okay.
02:02 Secondly, not everybody that tells you they know the system does.
02:06 And the corollary here is, all models are bad, some models are useful, okay.
02:12 Another one is that every time you fall in a pile of manure, it's not necessarily a bad thing.
02:19 And the last one is, when you're warm and happy, keep your mouth shut, okay.
02:22 And I'm always scared when somebody asks me to do this, 'cause I'm up here starting to sing and I'm waiting for this cat, okay, so.
02:30 So with that, I'll try to go on. There are significant people that have helped us over the years.
02:34 Peggy and I started doing this. Abdulnaser Arafat is one of my doctoral students.
02:38 He's now a postdoc at the University of Florida. I like to tease Naser - we call him Naser - that I'm Doctor Arafat's chair, okay.
02:45 And then the other one is Iris Patten, who's now faculty member at the University of Arizona. And where did I point this?
02:52 Oop, I'm pointing the wrong thing, okay.
02:54 The presentation today, I want to start with a little bit of an understanding about Florida so you know where we're coming from.
02:59 Talk a little bit about why I believe geodesign's important.
03:02 Look at the MyRegion project, which I think helped some of that.
03:05 Talk to you about what we're doing with LUCIS Plus. LUCIS is the land-use conflict identification strategy…
03:11 …and the students came up with this really cool idea of planning land-use scenarios, so that's where the Plus came from.
03:17 And now they got land-use W and land-use E for water and energy and stuff like that.
03:21 And the fun part about being in academics is you allow your students the freedom to, to play.
03:26 And then what lessons are learned.
03:28 How geodesign, what the geodesign educational opportunities are in the school of landscape architecture…
03:33 …and planning at U of F.
03:34 And then an interesting geodesign problem that I hope I can get to, but I'm a classic academic, more…
03:39 …slides than I probably should have. So why geodesign?
03:44 I think it's first and formidably the best solution for this problem that we have that's called disjointed incrementalism.
03:51 And what disjointed incrementalism does, and I'm going to paraphrase Carl here, and Carl said that geodesign is…
03:58 …geography changing, change by design.
04:00 Well, disjointed incrementalism is geography changed by institutional happenstance.
04:05 And the incremental changes that occur over time are done so in such a local decision way that with the absence…
04:12 …of no regional context. And so what happens is you get what we call Florida sprawl.
04:17 And by the way, we do Florida sprawl really well, okay.
04:20 And what happens is you get this occurring, and you don't know it's occurring until all of a sudden it's there.
04:26 And to paraphrase Doug Olson yesterday, he might say that, that disjointed incrementalism is the vector…
04:33 …for the global disease that he was talking about. So what happened?
04:38 How did we get all started? We did a lot of green waste planning and stuff like that. People started to ask us how…
04:43 …land-use changed. And then he asked us to take a look at what Florida might look like in 2060.
04:49 And so we have this way that we deal with, and the population was going to go from roughly 18 million people…
04:54 …to 36 million people, projections. That's not going to change much.
04:59 Florida has, even with the economic downturns and the, and the…the housing market doing what it's doing and everything else…
05:06 …Florida is not going to change that much.
05:08 There will be something changing, but it won't be this idea that people are not coming to the state of Florida for that particular reason.
05:16 And it's interesting to look at.
05:17 What we did with this is, we looked at, at urban densities, but we looked at them a different way.
05:21 We started to look at gross urban density.
05:23 We started to look at what the total population was and what the urban footprint was, and how could we use that?
05:28 Could we use that in a very, very large regional context, which was Florida.
05:33 And the interesting part here is, in people per acre, not units per acre, not square foot of commercial infrastructure…
05:40 …or those kinds of things. People per acre. Alachua County has 1.7 people per acre.
05:46 Per - in the urbanized area - 1.7 people per acre, okay.
05:51 Miami Dade, and I don't know if you've been to Miami, but Miami is pretty dense. Miami Dade is about 15 people per acre.
05:56 Orange County is about 4. Gilcrest County, half a person per acre. And if all of a sudden they start, oh, you get to spill over…
06:04 …and they start developing at a rate, they're developing it, that historic rate of a half a person per acre…
06:09 …and you're eating up land like you wouldn't believe, and so what happens is, that's what Florida looks like in 2005.
06:16 The light blue is water. The green is existing conservation lands. We bought a lot of conservation lands in the state of Florida.
06:23 And then the brownish-red colors are the current development. The 2060 projection looks like that.
06:30 It pretty well puts to rest that inverted U that is supposed to be the megalopolis that starts in Miami…
06:35 …goes up to I-4, crosses I-4, and comes back down.
06:38 The whole peninsula is going to be a megalopolis, by the way, by the turn, unless we do something different.
06:44 And that means we're going to have to structurally change the way we look at the world and the way we look at government.
06:50 If you did what, if you looked at what we did, we actually went from 6 million acres of urban to 13 million acres of urban.
06:56 We held the conservation lands constant in this model for a reason. They asked us to.
07:01 They wanted to know what the development would look like on places where they were proposing new conservation…
07:05 …lands, and the only way to do that was to look at the modeling structure. So, how is…what is LUCIS?
07:12 Okay, what does it do? It's a process for land-use analysis and population allocation, which comes after the identification.
07:19 Using traditional suitability is, and to try and identify conflict.
07:23 So it's essentially a traditional suitability model with some really nice additions, I think.
07:30 The MyRegion project was done for East Central Florida Regional Planning Council.
07:34 And I want to give Phil Laurien, the director of East Central Florida, who's now retired…
07:38 …and Claudia Paskauskas - that's a mouthful - credit for doing a lot of what we did. Taking what we did and adding, and adding to it.
07:48 Doing environmental, some environmental analysis, looking at REMI models for economic data and those things.
07:56 And so the project, to cut it short 'cause I want to go by some slides so I can talk more about others.
08:01 They really believed in this idea that their region was, was developing in this disjointed incremental fashion.
08:08 That it was the typical sprawling development within the areas. The view was that it was environmentally unhealthy.
08:14 The urban environment wasn't efficient and wasn't particularly exciting.
08:18 There was nothing about that urban environment with, with unit after unit after unit with a palm tree in the front yard and…
08:23 …some stuff like that, that was particularly exciting. Nice weather, not particularly…
08:27 'Course, if you've been at Florida in July and August, I'm not necessarily sure it's nice weather, okay. So this is what it looked like.
08:34 And if we kept doing, since…since the year 2000, the region added 300,000 new housing units and over a half a million…
08:41 …new residents, and it looked like that. In 2050, with some of the stuff we looked at, if we continue to develop…
08:52 …the way we do, we'll have built 2,340,000 new units, single-family housing mostly, okay.
09:00 We'll commit to a pattern of commuter that will double the road network and traffic will get worse.
09:06 We'll have 344 square miles of sensitive habitat that will lost to urbanization in just this MyRegion area…
09:12 … and you'll see where that's at in a minute.
09:14 I apologize for that. And we'll consume 2,577 additional square miles of urban land.
09:20 And at the time, we don't know what the heck gas prices are going to be in 2060, we have no idea.
09:29 MyRegion, the strategic planning task force had seven senior members on it and the regional board had 226 members…
09:36 …as Doug was talking about. You get a chance to interact with people.
09:39 And these people are real estate agents, they're developers, they're environmental scientists, they're…
09:44 …environmentalists, they're planners, they're just interested general public, okay.
09:49 And if you've ever been in a land-use meeting, the four-letter words come flying.
09:54 Okay, when you start to tell somebody that you're not going to allow them to develop or do something on their private property…
10:00 …the way they want to do it, you can actually have your life threatened.
10:04 I was in Monroe County at one time when I was a graduate student, we were working on critical lands of state concern.
10:09 There were two highway patrols on either side of myself and my major professor.
10:13 And this person came up and said, "I'd like to give you both 100 acres of my land."
10:17 And John said, "Well, I can't do that. That's a bribe." And the guy said, "No, no, no, no. I want you to have 100 acres…
10:23 …of my land 'cause I want you to understand what it really means to me for what you're talking about doing."
10:29 And John said, "I'm sorry, we do understand, and, but we can't take the land."
10:33 And he said, "In that case, don't come down here, 'cause I'll bury you on it."
10:37 And I went, "That's a wallet issue. That's a…." When you're dealing with people's private property and you're doing…
10:44 …land-use analysis, you're going to deal with some really intense issues, and I think Doug got to that the other day.
10:49 He had a person screaming. I'm a tenured faculty member of the university, I can say it differently, I think.
10:56 So what did it look like in 2005? The 2005 snapshot looked like this.
11:00 Now the color, I took these right out of their report, which, by the way, you can go online at…
11:06 …eastcentralfloridaregionalplanningcouncil.org, or ecfrpc.org, and you can get the summary report for this thing.
11:13 It has a DVD in it, too. The urban area is 2,600 square miles. The habitat destroyed during that process was roughly 394 square miles.
11:23 That indicator I don't really understand very well.
11:28 Green acres, the green areas was about 2,100 square miles, or 24 percent.
11:31 Thirty-four-mile average speed for what's commute. Zero miles of passenger rail.
11:38 A hundred and 18 billion dollars of gross regional product in 2000 dollars, and the average wage was about $35,000.
11:46 And the existing urban density centers looked like this. So that's an area.
11:50 Seven counties. It's Volusia County; Seminole County; Lake County; Orange County; Brevard County,…
11:56 …which is where Cape Canaveral, Cape Kennedy is; Polk County; and Highlands - or Osceola County, excuse me.
12:05 And one of the areas of interest that later on is to do here, that, there's a big huge development that's been proposed…
12:10 …down there called Destiny. I'm not sure, way out in the middle of nowhere like that, that would be my destiny.
12:16 I hope it's not, but the reality is there is that going on. So I apologize. You now know I am not a designer…
12:23 …'cause there wouldn't be a designer in the world who would put up a colored map that would look like that, okay.
12:28 But what happens is, we ran the LUCIS process and we find out, we get conflicts, and I'll tell you exactly how…
12:33 …that's done in a second. But it turns out that white area and the black area is preferred for urban use the way we look at it.
12:40 It's about 18.8 percent of the area, agriculture's about 10.2 percent, conservation is about 28.7 percent…
12:47 …and then we deal with minor and major conflicts for a total of about 2 million 460-some thousand acres of land…
12:54 …there, and it's, in that total area. And so what happens is, they began to look at these, these ideas.
13:02 And we always deal with a trend, 'cause there are no perfect plans. There's no such thing as a perfect plan.
13:08 If you don't have something to compare it to, so we start off with a trend and we compare everything we do to…
13:12 …that trend to try and figure out what it is we've got.
13:15 And if you look here, the description of the trend says most development occurs in suburbs farther from traditional centers.
13:21 Most housing is single story, single family. They're on one-third to one-half acre lots.
13:26 There are a few bike paths and no leafy walking trails - well, no walking trails.
13:30 People drive to jobs, schools, doctors, stores, and strip malls. We do strip malls really well.
13:36 The very young and very old have to depend on people to get them around. There are limited bus services…
13:40 …commuter run miles in this scenario was 43 miles from DeLand to Kissimmee.
13:46 There was about 344 square miles of conservation areas that would have been lost - sensitive wildlife areas…
13:54 …about the size of Manhattan. We would… The area would increase about 1.7 times to the size of Rhode Island, okay.
14:06 And it would double if the land area urbanized that started in 1565 with the Native American Indians, all the way to 2005.
14:14 And I don't want to spend a lot of time on this, but the economic growth in the area doubled to about $421 billion…
14:21 …and it would employ roughly 3,768,000 people.
14:28 So that was the, some of the economic analysis, and that's the trend.
14:31 Now the yellow up here, that yellow, that gray is the existing, the yellow is all the new urban development.
14:37 And you can see that the people are really going to do this. Now once you do that, you start to ask people questions.
14:44 Is this what you want? And virtually everybody, including even real estate people, do not really want to see that.
14:51 They really don't want sprawl. They want some other way to deal with what's going on.
14:56 And so what happens is, we brought in 3,000 people, we had two visioning games, they put down 65,000 dots…
15:03 …of where they thought the density ought to go, and we integrated that to try and come up with these places where…
15:07 …density could be. Now you can game this.
15:10 There's no doubt about it, and as I think Doug would tell you and Carl will tell you, it's easy to game the system…
15:14 …and in fact, you can see that the people that were interested in what was going on down there in, in Destiny…
15:21 …were gaming the system. So because you bring the general public in doesn't mean it's the absolute correct…
15:27 There is no absolute correct answer.
15:29 On the other hand, if you bring the people in and you get people involved, and we had this, by the time we were done…
15:35 …it was presented on the regional TV for about four hours. There were, there were general public voting on this kind of thing…
15:42 …for the particular scenarios that they enjoyed.
15:46 So the three scenarios were green area scenario, a center scenario that was pretty much cities, towns, and villages…
15:52 …connected by basic rail, okay. And then there was this corridor idea, which was intense light rail, street cars, commuter rail…
16:00 …representations, and that.
16:01 And these were just visions of what they would like to see or what they thought they might be interested in.
16:07 The green area scenario turns out that instead of developing the way it would, the region turned out to have…
16:14 …39 percent urban and 51 percent conservation, with 10 percent undeveloped, which was a significant saving.
16:22 There was 2,483 square miles of proposed new conservation lands, and an addition of 4,627 square miles…
16:30 …of conservation land equaling one-half the size of the state of Vermont.
16:35 They really, they really began to want that. This is just the green area scenario. It didn't win, by the way.
16:40 The wildlife routes are preserved. There's greenbelts. There's connectivity.
16:44 You can see that the connectivity in the dark areas are the existing conservation, the light greens are…
16:50 …the corridors, okay. The gray, again, is the same urbanized area.
16:55 It turns out that the air quality didn't get a whole lot better in any one of these scenarios.
17:01 In fact, it got worse than 2005. Water consumption was 8 percent less than the trend.
17:06 As a result of the increased density in urban areas, there were 200,000 more jobs than the trend, and the economic…
17:13 …value was $448 billion worth of gross regional product, which is 6 percent, 6 1/2 percent larger than…
17:20 …trend, and there were 3,966,000 employees, or employment.
17:26 And the urban areas began to look like that. The…they became denser, obviously.
17:32 So we did the same thing with the center scenario. And the center scenarios, they began to work with this idea of…
17:37 …where would they want centers? And as you can see, Destiny didn't win out as one of the centers, but the…
17:43 …other places began to say, We would really like to be urbanized areas.
17:47 And when we looked at this, the development, it got, got denser. It grew vertically as well.
17:53 In the Garden Cities areas, there are greenbelt conservation, 4,198 square miles, or 47 percent of the region was still in greenways.
18:04 Air quality was 17 1/2 percent better, and the water consumption was 8 percent less.
18:09 So it didn't change the water consumption much.
18:11 People were…you had biking, you had transit opportunities and those kinds of things.
18:16 The total employment was 4,123,000 people, which is 355 thousand more.
18:23 And the gross domestic product was $460 billion.
18:29 Now I'm doing this rapidly, I understand that, but that's what happens in 35-minute presentations.
18:34 And the center areas looked like this, in terms of their densities.
18:38 So then they went and said, okay, let's look at the corridors.
18:41 And the corridors turned out to have a massive amount of transit, which wasn't realistic…
18:46 …but the…the 226 people wanted to see what that will look like. So transit is the transportation backbone of the region in this scenario.
18:56 Cities are encouraged to create taller, one-third mile of transit stops - taller development within one-third miles of transit stops.
19:04 Many vacant strip centers became new, new town centers.
19:08 There is a 413-mile system of commuter rails, light rails, and that. That's an incredible amount, you know, of rail, to say the least.
19:16 The average person spends 1.3 hours per day in the car, which is less than what was going on at 1.5 hours per...
19:23 …day in the car with, with the trend.
19:26 Residential side streets generally remain intact.
19:29 The buildings were taller, the neighborhoods looked and are similar to the centers but were more like a…
19:33 So this is sort of their idea at the time of a really mass-transit TOD operation.
19:39 Because the urban footprint is denser along the rail lines, the amount of urban land consumed from 2005 to 2050…
19:45 …is just 660 square miles. It's not in the thousands. We cut it into basically someplace in the range of about a third.
19:56 The region is 36 percent urban. Total conservation land is 3,816 square miles, and there's 42 percent of the region.
20:03 Twenty-one percent of the region remains undeveloped. Air quality is 9 percent better. Water is, is 9 percent less. Consumption is 9…
20:11 The economy is stimulated by the ease of moving people. More affordable housing choices are in the mix of land uses.
20:18 The gross domestic product is $513 billion, 22 percent more than the trend, and there are 4,225,000 employees…
20:30 …employment for the same number of people.
20:35 The urban centers, clearly you can see, and that's Orlando in the center right there, that's Orlando in the center.
20:41 Well, it turns out that they then went back and they started to look at the results.
20:45 And what they found out was - and this blue, this light blue here, is always going to be the trend…
20:49 They calculated some acres wrong so I hid them, so I covered up their mistake.
20:54 So what happens is, you have a population of 3,500,000 to start with.
20:58 You end up with 7,123,000 people in the region when you get done.
21:03 The developed, or committed urban lands, it…in, existing is 2,600 acres, the trend is 5,000 acres…
21:12 …the green area is 3,500 acres; the centers is 3,400 acres; and the corridors, 3,200 acres.
21:20 Again, you can see along the way, in terms of the number of persons per acre, is 2.15, at this time,…
21:27 …and it increases from 2.15 to 3.15 to 3.22 to 3.44.
21:32 Not a huge amount of, of people per acre in gross urban density.
21:39 The environmental indicators, it turns out again that conservation lands, there was 2,144.
21:45 The trend didn't add any existing conservation lands.
21:48 And by the way, the State of Florida has just stopped its land purchase at this particular time because of the economy.
21:53 So they really aren't buying lands now.
21:56 The green acres has 4,600, the centers has 4,200, and the corridors has 3,800, so it has less conservation lands.
22:05 Again, if you look at what's going on in terms of threatened and endangered species habitat areas, there was 394.
22:11 That's an additional 344 square miles. Instead it went to 44, 45, and 28.
22:19 We didn't…by the way we developed, the pattern that we chose to help them develop with, and the pattern they chose…
22:24 …that we helped implement, or model, reduced the loss of endangered species, biodiversity…
22:31 …habitat that supported endangered species, wetlands, any number of other things.
22:35 I think it was Doug the other day, said about wetlands, it turns out, why would a farmer drain a wetland?
22:42 Well, in Florida, it's not necessarily a farmer. We've got lands that are called agricultural lands not zoned for agriculture.
22:50 Interesting title, right? What does that mean?
22:52 That means that as an agriculture person, I can declare it a wetland, then I can develop it, okay.
22:58 So you can't develop, you can't clear wetlands in Florida to do development, but you can clear wetlands in Florida…
23:04 …for agricultural use.
23:05 And so what happens is, there's now a code in the property parcel dataset that says, "agricultural lands not zoned for agriculture."
23:11 Or if you want to leave your lands in agriculture and collect an agricultural exemption, okay, there's a place…
23:19 …in this area and it's called The Villages. It's an incredibly interesting place for retirement.
23:24 Everybody's driving around with their Gator flags and their Auburn flags and their Harvard flags.
23:28 I don't think they do Harvard flags, okay. But what happens is, they're driving around in their golf carts with…
23:32 …these flags and everything else, and they're golfing and doing all this stuff, and they're…they got the biggest real estate program…
23:38 …in the nation, and they bring people in and they're developing.
23:41 A man owns 24 square miles down there and he's got a couple of the square miles down there with a buffalo on…
23:47 …each of the square miles and he gets an agricultural exemption, okay, to defer the costs.
23:54 Transportation indicators, okay. The one I think that's interesting here, you…I'll be glad to go over this…
24:02 …but I think it's more important to look at the cost of what adding that new, all those new rail in, okay.
24:08 The trend, no out of beltway and with some 43 miles of that is $22 billion worth of…
24:15 …and this, you'll notice, I think this is the 2000, this is 2060, or 2050, there's $22 billion worth of development.
24:24 In the green areas, there's $34 billion worth of development for the new roads, okay and the…
24:30 …new transit opportunities, or the new transit. The centers has 44 billion, and the corridors has 44 billion.
24:39 So in other words, that big jump in the economic indicators that we're talking about, okay, didn't all…
24:44 …occur because they were building rail.
24:47 So there were new jobs that were created that were permanent jobs, not jobs created to just generate rail…
24:52 …but there was a significant amount of economic opportunity that occurred in building the rail.
24:57 And then clearly, there is a private-sector investment that goes all along rail that's unbelievable.
25:02 In fact, all you have to do is look at Portland, Oregon, and they've got a couple billion dollars' worth of…
25:07 …private-sector investment along their rail areas. Again, some indicators. The average speed…
25:15 You notice, the trend is, is basically 33 miles per hour, the, or I mean, today it's 33. The trend is 21, 21, 25, and 23.
25:27 It doesn't change that much, 'cause urban area…the most amazing places in the world - New York, Paris, San Francisco,…
25:35 …Boston - they're congested because they're cities. Cities are congested.
25:41 Some of the most creative places are congested.
25:43 The solution, in my opinion, and here's the academic in me, is not to go try to figure out how to do new roads…
25:48 …but let's get some mass transit into here. And you're still not going to decrease the congestion…
25:53 …'cause cities are going to be congested. It's, it's the, it's the, the way that cities work. That doesn't mean they have to be bad, okay.
26:01 That doesn't mean you can't get to where you work faster or those kinds of things.
26:06 It depends on your mode choice for how you want to get there. The economic and water indicators, okay…
26:13 …17 hundred million gallons a day on the trend, 1,500 and 70 million gallons a day for the green acres…
26:20 …1,560 and 1,550. The water consumption doesn't change that much. That's going to require other kinds of technology.
26:26 It doesn't change based on the land uses as much.
26:31 So population projections. This was really interesting because it, it started a general discussion that some…
26:36 …people would actually be better doing the sprawl than they would be in doing the other alternatives.
26:41 And so what happens, if you look at Brevard County under the…the BEBR moderate projections by 2050…
26:47 …they would have 932,000 people. The green acres was 914. The centers would be 958. They would go up…
26:54 …because they have an attraction of more. The corridors would be 967, and the trend would be 888.
27:00 They wouldn't actually get as much in the trend. They would begin to attract because of the centers.
27:04 A tract development attracts some people, attract job opportunities, and attract other activities based on the fact…
27:11 …that they were developing in some center particular strategy. So how does LUCIS work? Now I showed you what it is.
27:19 We won a national award for best, best use of technology by a university. And My Region won best use of technology…
27:25 …by a regional planning, planning organization from the APA for that project.
27:31 And so, LUCIS really is not…it's…and Peggy…Peggy is an incredibly interesting person.
27:39 I wanted to call it LUCAS, L-U-C-A-S, for land-use conflict analysis strategy.
27:44 Peggy wanted to call it land-use conflict identification strategy. You know who wins in these discussions, okay?
27:50 I've been married 40 years, I'm well trained, okay. I tease my students, I'm a magic wallet. Money shows up in it.
27:57 I have…my wife's an accountant. I have absolutely no idea where, where any of our investments are or anything like that, you know.
28:04 I'm the reverse. If she dies, I don't know where to go. There's a, there's a safe, and I'm supposed to go in there and do something, okay.
28:10 So the LUCIS project, we…we start by developing goals, objectives, and subobjectives, and we model those.
28:16 We model suitability reflecting those goals, objectives and subobjectives.
28:20 We create preference from suitability, and I'll show you how to do that.
28:22 We either normalize or transform that preference into a way that we can…we collapse it into categories of high,…
28:29 …medium, and low, and then we use those collapsed preferences to help us identify land-use conflict and land-use alternatives…
28:35 …or land-use opportunities, as well. So here's just some example, okay.
28:42 So with a, a subobjective, three goals. We have these three major goals. For greenfield development…
28:48 …we look at agriculture, we look at conservation, we look at urban.
28:52 Depending upon where we're at, conservation might actually be titled ecological significance…
28:56 …'cause people do not like to hear the word conservation. I'm not exactly sure why.
29:01 They just don't like to, to have it that way. So rather than argue about a miniscule point, we change it.
29:06 But I work with doctoral students, and so you'll notice that that process is in alphabetic order…
29:12 …agriculture, conservation, and urban. That way they can't forget it.
29:16 Okay, so when we're dealing with these numbers, the reality is, keep it the KIS method, keep it simple.
29:23 And so we model things like multifamily use, we model single-family use. We model commercial, retail,…
29:29 …service, industrial, institutional, entertainment. That's just in the urban area.
29:34 We model biodiversity, species biodiversity, habitat biodiversity, surface water, underground water.
29:40 We model connectivity, habitat connectivity. In agriculture, we look at the various different forms of agriculture…
29:47 …including the orchards, including high intensity like cattle and pigs, chickens.
29:55 We model low intensity. The horses, the horse farms that we have and those kinds of things like that.
29:59 We model each and every one of those. There's 500 different models, I think, in this.
30:04 And by the way, it's not…it's going to be easier to use than it actually is right now.
30:09 Like problem with working with doctoral students, okay. The suitability for the goals, then, and that's - there's one of our models.
30:16 I like, I like our…we decided to have our models go from bottom to top, 'cause everybody else's goes from left to right, okay.
30:23 And I'm at a university and I can't figure out how to go from the left to the right. It just never, I don't do that very well.
30:29 So what I…that must have missed everybody, okay, yeah. I don't go conservative, okay, so.
30:35 So what happens is, we model this. And this is the noise for single family.
30:39 And when…what you look at is, we're looking at airports, the regional parcels. What kind of parcels might generate noise?
30:44 Active rail, interstates, major roads, power plants, water treatment facilities, sewer treatment facilities.
30:51 This is a deterministic model. This is not a stochastic model.
30:55 I don't know how many times I've gone into a land-use meeting and I've said, in fact, I will do it right here.
31:01 How many of you would like to live next to a prison? Oh, my God.
31:04 How many of you would like to live next to a prison? How many would like to live next to a sewage treatment plant?
31:11 Right? You run a stochastic model, those are going to come up not significant.
31:15 Nobody in here except Carl said he would like to live next to a prison, okay.
31:18 I would suggest that's a significant variable, and the way to deal with it is, is these deterministic models.
31:24 So now I'm going to have to go real fast, 'cause I have five minutes.
31:26 That's what that model looks like, and it turns out that up in Seminole County, there's a lot more noise.
31:32 So we look at the standard stuff. Oops.
31:34 We look at the standard stuff - hazards, air quality, floods - to do the physical, and we weight those…
31:39 …okay, and so weighted suitability model. We do the same thing for prisons, entertainment, water and sewer facilities, okay.
31:46 Existing single family, retail, environmental amenities; and this is a single-family model that I'm dealing with.
31:53 Major roadways and services, and we weight those. And then we look at the existing land uses.
31:59 What land use is good for single-family residential? In Florida, agriculture. But some agriculture isn't.
32:05 If you're raising palm trees, that's a very, very valuable land…
32:09 …especially if you're putting those palm trees as part of the landscaping for the various single-family residential…
32:15 …properties that are current.
32:16 We model the density and we look at three, three decades of density. We model a historic growth over a three-decade period of time.
32:24 And then we take this, the physical, the proximal, the existing land uses, the density, and the growth history…
32:30 …and we turn that into an existing category.
32:34 Next, we take the stakeholders and we ask them to help us.
32:37 And then they, they help us determine what's important among those categories.
32:41 This is those people in the, in communities. This isn't experts.
32:44 This is the 3,000 people, or the people who are beginning to work on, on…that you're beginning to work with.
32:49 And when we're done with that, if this goes forward, you get an urban category.
32:54 Now we have urban, we have agriculture, and we have conservation.
32:59 We also have single-family residential, multifamily residential, we have all those available.
33:04 And so what happens now is, we can collapse those. And one way to collapse those is you can just do these natural breaks.
33:09 You can collapse what you've got in that raster…raster and vector.
33:13 You can use natural breaks, you can use manual method, you can use equal intervals.
33:17 I've become a proponent of equal intervals. I used to be a proponent of standard deviation…
33:21 …but I've become a huge proponent of the equal intervals. It keep everything in the same scale much better.
33:27 When you get done with it, you take this kind of a thing and you begin to drop it into three categories…
33:31 …where the green is high preference, the yellow is low preference, and the red is, or I mean the yellow is…
33:37 …moderate preference and the red is low preference.
33:39 And so that's what a natural break looks like.
33:41 And you can see between those three, just trying to give you this idea, it does matter how you do it.
33:48 The next part of this is, we identify the conflict. And this is the very…this is simple. It requires math.
33:54 Anything you do with rasters requires some kind of math.
33:57 So we take the ag categories of "three-two-one" and multiply them times 100. This is graduate-level PhD math, okay.
34:05 You take the three-two-one, you multiply it by a hundred. For the…for the conservation, okay, it's ACU.
34:11 You take the three-two-one; you multiply it by 10; and the urban, you leave it alone.
34:15 Now you add them all together and you end up with numbers that look like three-three-three.
34:19 That's a high preference on all three of those categories. That's conflict, okay.
34:24 Where you get a three-two-one, you have a high agricultural preference, a moderate conservation preference…
34:27 …and a low urban preference, okay. Probably not going to develop really quickly. So you end up with 27 categories.
34:35 I'm not going to go through all of them, okay, but what happens is, you can see that that gives you a really, really…
34:40 …flexible way to look at things on very incrementally small areas.
34:45 The next one is, you try to keep it in the same category.
34:48 So now you're looking at commercial, multifamily, and retail for mixed-use opportunity, and you can do exactly the same thing.
34:55 So now, inside of urban areas, we can begin to look at what we've got for mixed-use opportunities…
35:01 …using exactly the same thing. And I love the one-one-ones. Everybody goes, Why the one-one-ones?
35:13 Three-three-three is a high preference. If I'm looking for mixed use, that three-three-three is a really good place.
35:21 So one of the things we do next is, we start to do scenario development.
35:25 And our scenario development turns around and says, let's look at a mixed use redevelopment.
35:29 And we…the students love these ideas. Well, it turns out, I guess, the dashboards are these spreadsheets, too.
35:36 And so what happens now is, we create spreadsheets.
35:38 And we'll do something like use census blocks and transportation analysis zones 'cause the person who was from…
35:43 …California the other day got up and did this presentation and said, "I have to know stuff in these really little areas."
35:48 Well, we have to be able to summarize it back up. So all this locational stuff helps us summarize it back up.
35:54 The next thing we do is, we add in that conflict. Right over here is the conflict. And we add in the, the suitability levels.
36:01 And after the suitability levels, we can add in the acres that we're working with and the actual parcel acres.
36:06 We have parcel IDs, so we can flip back and forth between the actual vector datasets as well as the raster datasets.
36:13 And from there, we use this, this allocation by year and population. We can allocate employment, we can allocate population…
36:19 …we can do it by year. We have gross urban densities and those kinds of things. So we jump into this spreadsheet.
36:25 And that spreadsheet's pretty interesting, 'cause it's got 5.5 million records.
36:29 So you've got some real interesting suitability out there, and you've got it at small scale.
36:35 And I've got a feeling I'm about ready to go off, so. Here's the redevelopment mask. I'm going to go up for one more minute.
36:41 I'm just - I'm going to pull a Carl. Stop. Okay, so.
36:44 And what happens is, now I can look inside the redevelopment areas for the mixed use.
36:48 And that right there is redevelopment commercial. This is redevelopment retail. That's redevelopment multifamily.
36:58 You put them all together and I want you to look, oops. I want you to look at this area right in here, okay.
37:05 The redevelopment retail, the multifamily, and right here you can see there's those points.
37:11 It automatically comes along and tells you where, where your mixed-use opportunities are best. We've put it together with greenfield.
37:20 That's what the trend looked like with the 7.1 million. This is a composite. They…they couldn't do the, the rail…all that rail.
37:27 So they asked us to put together the composite. We put it together the way I just described.
37:32 We did the next one, and it turns out we put seven million people on one quarter the area.
37:37 We saved the entire ecological plan, and we never even really did the…had to run into conflict with any of the ecological areas.
37:46 Now if you go to a land-use meeting, you walk into that meeting, and that large developer has that…
37:50 …land out there and you go, "We just saved all that development on the land you want to develop,"…
37:54 …they're not necessarily happy. Do you want me to quit?
38:00 Okay. This is a very interesting mix. We can take that and try to figure out, what, what would be the mix when you did it?
38:07 So this idea of, of, if you believe in suitability, we have commercial, retail, and multifamily, we can come up…
38:13 …with what a commercial mix looks like. Look at this area, this area, and this area. That's the commercial percentage.
38:20 That's the retail percentage, and that's the multifamily percentage. So watch this right here.
38:26 That's…that's multifamily. Not really good for retail, but really good for commercial.
38:32 There's commercial office place and mixed-use residential opportunity in that whole entire area right there.
38:37 And we know what percentages that, that development might, might look at.
38:45 This is a new way of doing a proximity. Those are all the multifamily units in the, the area. That's all the commercial opportunity.
38:55 There's all the transit centers on the rail, or I mean, not on the rail, on the bus routes, okay.
39:01 And we now look at walkability to those areas and then we do network analysis to come up with network…
39:07 …accessibility from multi - all the multifamily units to all the commercial activity. That's built into the model.
39:15 And so, lessons learned, and this is where I'll stop for you.
39:19 Regional urban form can be determined using GIS. It really is a matter of using technology.
39:28 Regional geodesign models can produce results that are summarized to local areas, making geodesign proactive,…
39:34 …flexible, and community based, and I took that directly from your work.
39:38 Existing land-use plans can be compared to multiple regional geodesign scenarios and assist decision makers.
39:46 Regional geodesign allows the development of policy alternatives that do not restrict design creativity.
39:52 I'm going to say something affectionately here about architects because I'm an associate dean in a program that…
39:57 …has a lot of architects, but landscape architects and almost all designers, you're out there all the same.
40:04 Most of those schools are called schools of architecture, okay. So that's SOA, okay.
40:09 Well anybody ever watch the program Sons of Anarchy? If you've ever been in on an architecture faculty meeting, it, it…
40:17 …you're not going to go to a designer and say, "Here. Here's a form base. I want it to look this way." It's not going to happen.
40:24 You have to allow them the creativity to practice their profession, but you have to have some kind of regional context…
40:29 …that guides that. This process, I think, we're…hopefully, this process is useful in that particular method.
40:36 Planners and urban designers can analyze and identify important regional parameters and still allow designers…
40:41 …the freedom to create exciting urban spaces, and regional geodesign has the potential to change our antiquated…
40:51 …disjointed incremental development policies. And if we do that, we've done a really big thing in just geodesign as it is. Thank you.
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