00:01Philip Murphy, also from the Redlands Institute at the University of Redlands.
00:11Waiting for my talk to magically appear..
00:15Oops, we're a little further in there,, should be...mmmm, let's go back one.
00:22I hope you're all sated with geo goodies, because I'm putting you on a diet.
00:27There will be no maps, there'll be no visualizations, there'll be no excellent, cool videos.
00:33This is a project that's sort of wrapping up right now, the DIS common period...
00:39...just ended the third of December.
00:41It's a project that I was brought into as...many projects will last five or six years by a collaborative mediator...
00:49...Carie Fox out of Portland. This was work done with the Institute of Environmental...
00:53...Conflict Resolution, which I now know is a danger sign.
00:58They only ever called us if it was very big D, as in, it was already lots of trouble...
01:05...and they needed some innocents to go down there and get involved.
01:13So I'll talk a little bit about Giant Sequoia National Monument, I mean, believe it or not...
01:20...it will come as a surprise, there were trees there long before we were.
01:24Giant sequoias, these are the trees that are 3,000 years old in places.
01:29But we've been planning and building and living and dying in that area for many years.
01:33But, in recent history, back in 1990s, there was an MSA, a mediated settlement agreement...
01:43...with the Forest Service and local communities about how this area should be managed for the good of all.
01:52In 2000, it was sort of formalized and President Clinton made a monument of it.
01:57If you make a monument of an area as distinct from a national park or a forest, you create a proclamation.
02:04And a proclamation is an interesting document that sort of says that, here will be this area, this is the area.
02:11It also puts in a fair amount of management suggestions - well, I see, I guess more like constraints and rules...
02:18...about how it should be managed.
02:21The forest, one of the things that was in that proclamation was that the Forest Service, one of the key things...
02:25...was that if you look at the area and, again, there will be no maps shown in this presentation - but if you were to look at a map...
02:31...there's a big, giant sequoia national forest, and right beside it, Giant Sequoia National Park.
02:38The monument is a small area that sort of connects the two, and one of the questions when they were created...
02:44...this monument was, who would get to run it?
02:47What turned out to be quite controversial, it was given to Forest Service.
02:51The Forest Service was told to come up with a management plan, which they duly did in 2004 after multiple suits...
02:58...it was remanded back by judge to the Forest Service to try again.
03:02The word "incomprehensible" was bandied around in that.
03:07And in 2007, the process which I'm now part of...and Carie dragged me into - I'll blame her, was another attempt to...
03:16...okay, given all of that, we have to come up with a plan revision.
03:20Some of the driving issues will be no surprise to many of you who look at natural resources...
03:26...and yes, there are no big urban areas involved in this work out here, this is natural resource areas.
03:32The fire fuels build up.
03:33As you know, the Forest Service is incredibly successful in fighting fires and suppressing fires over...
03:37...the last 50 years, and one of the unfortunate side effects is that you now have a lot of forests...
03:43...have an awful lot of dead and semi-dead timber in it, small trees and medium-sized trees...
03:49...that burn very nicely if you get a good fire going.
03:52In the case of the giant sequoia, that's a great interest.
03:56Sequoias are fire-loving trees.
03:58They only regenerate when they have a good fire.
04:00The reason for that is that small sequoia saplings don't compete very well with other trees.
04:05So, the fire has two great purposes; it burns all of the vegetation around from underneath the trees...
04:10...and it also gets the pinecones to open up and drop their seeds.
04:16So seeds fall in nice, bare area where they can get established, and off you go for another couple thousand years.
04:22So, as fire fuels, that was of great concern, there's a lot of people living in the monument area...
04:24...have houses and have lived there for a long time, and they are concerned about being burnt out of it.
04:31One way to get the rooms, any room, you have a public meeting and to quickly shift into two groups...
04:34...is to talk about tree removal.
04:36Under what circumstances should a tree be cut?
04:39If you want to reduce fire fuels, you want to get stuff out of there, including medium-sized trees.
04:44Are you going to cut those trees to get them out of there?
04:46Do you want to let natural fire burn those trees away?
04:49How do you get the forest back to what's called a fire-resilient state?
04:52Or, it can go back to loving fire but not being consumed by fire.
04:56Access and recreation in 2007, those who were involved in the very long and torturous MSA agreement back in 1990...
05:06...want to know where the heck have all the things you promised to do back then, where are they now?
05:09You still haven't done them.
05:11So, we all have our nice little three-ring circuses; here's my attempt.
05:17And of course I'm using maps and geodesign as the thing.
05:20The three parts that Carie and I have sort of found, were looking every time is the thing I call governance.
05:24And governance...well, let's start with an easy one. Social ecology, you all know, that is the landscape...
05:29...the people, the fauna, the flora, the trees, how they all work together, how they operate.
05:33Obviously we change, and of course, this change, whether it's a design change or not design change.
05:38Part of what's really putting the pressure on the giant sequoia is climate change.
05:43If you ever see a map of where the last remaining giant sequoias are, it's a very thin strip...
05:48...a hundred, a couple hundred miles long, at the crest of the Sierra Nevadas.
05:52They need moist soil, but not too moist, and generally they've been retreating up and up and up...
05:58...where they're sort of running out; there's no "up" to go anymore.
06:01So you're looking at these 2,000-year-old trees that are, you know, they're endangered.
06:05And so, climate change, we could go either way.
06:08It might help, it could hinder them.
06:10So, some of the change you get is not what you designed but what's actually happening to your resources.
06:15And of course, some we hope to design.
06:17Governance is a word that I use and I can't stand and I'm delighted if someone could help me come up...
06:21...with a better one, but it incorporates all of the issues around who governs this?
06:24What documents govern this?
06:26How do you make a decision?
06:27Who will make a decision?
06:29I noticed in Carl's taxonomy he had to pick an organization.
06:35In this case, what's key, and what I said before, it's the documents.
06:38There are now about five or six documents; there were a couple of regional and national forest plan guidance things...
06:44...passed over the same years as the list I gave you.
06:47So one of the problems that faces the forest supervisor is, we have all these competing documents...
06:51...telling us how to run this place; how are we going to do it?
06:53If you have a public meeting, everyone quotes the proclamation.
06:56So, one of the things we quickly realized is that, so, but this stuff, we've seen plenty enough so we're not going to mention it...
07:02...the overlap is very interesting.
07:05How should we evaluate it, how might the accident, okay, we all know this stuff..
07:08For me, how should we evaluate the proposed actions?
07:11How are we going to do that when it's not just about, you know, we have our normal...
07:17...we do our simulations and so forth.
07:19But for us, the key is how are we going to actually decide what's a good-looking outcome.
07:24It's big D in the sense that the people in the room, in these public meetings be finding for 25 years...
07:29...and there were many different groups with many different historical connections.
07:33So we very quickly, the assessments going down that left-hand side and that's what facilitators/mediators do very well.
07:39They go in, they talk, they have coffee, they have tea.
07:42They do very quickly to get down to what's the meat of what's going on here what has to be done?
07:48What has to be thought about?
07:49Having got that, of course, everyone's very interested in how you might change the landscape because they all have ideas...
07:54...about why they have a good way to do it.
07:56Some would like to garden the landscape back into submission, others would like to let fire just burn.
08:01See what falls out of there.
08:03And so, and how we need to evaluate.
08:05So that was the key part we wanted to focus on, and the very first thing, oh yes, the word is going to be geo goodies.
08:11There's utility and incredibly deep forest simulations being done. There's fire shed simulation and all sorts of stuff...
08:15...that has been done by the Forest Service.
08:17There's also the great Forest Service-generated tools to show different management practices...
08:22...how that would change over, how that would affect the ecosystem over 100 years.
08:27We were promised air quality because one of the unfortunate things is if you burn, if you let fires burn in the monument...
08:33...you're sending people to hospital down in San Joaquin Valley.
08:35So, you have to really find those few good days a year when you can burn.
08:39So, when I left here last year, I was totally not convinced that geodesign had anything to say to me.
08:48After a year of actually thinking, which I find does actually help, I've got a couple of strong things, issues...
08:57...the thing I'm talking about today, which was the place of decision making in this.
09:00And the second is, that particular, I know it's only one flow; that flow goes down and up and down...
09:06...and down again is actually critical.
09:07If you want to figure out, I don't have time to go through it now, but if you think about that...
09:12...if you think about different idea about they are different designs, the different design methods over there...
09:17...eight or nine or ten or however many there are, in a sounder ecoprocess there's about...
09:20...five design methods going simultaneously by different groups.
09:23There are that whole up/down three-hour stuff, and...you try and do all of those in one shot and everyone...
09:29... is amazed about it the time you get to DIS and the alternatives, you often don't have the best alternatives.
09:33And so, at least staying away from this, I now know in the future how we're going to change that.
09:38So, I'd like to try and change it.
09:41We've had many places there this is typical legal process; we had a number of places where we...
09:45...decided we would try and intervene on this.
09:47The very first thing we did was we actually put up, the proclamation is only five pages so we put it up on the web.
09:52We made it simple that you could click on any part of the five pages.
09:56Notice also that - actually, I've jumped over - Thom Cheney's wonderful artwork.
10:00One thing facilitators/mediators do, and they think it's so natural they can't understand what's wrong with technology.
10:04They don't have meetings in ugly rooms.
10:07It's just a thing you don't do.
10:08Not unless you're, you know, absolutely desperate.
10:09You try to make nice rooms.
10:10So we hired an artist; I mean, a revolutionary idea.
10:13And so all of the stuff you see around this... For us, technologists, it's only art, background, I mean, let's get to the engine.
10:19This really doesn't matter to people as to how they feel about what you're inviting them to participate in.
10:25So, we took the proclamation.
10:29You can imagine after 10 years of fighting that lots of people have written lots about what the proclamation means.
10:33I should, the proclamation had many - this is, for instance, the proclamation says we want to preserve objects.
10:42No kidding. The word "objects" appears right there.
10:43So, you can imagine the argument about that.
10:46What the heck is an object?
10:47Is an ecosystem an object?
10:48Is a pebble an object?
10:49Is an acorn an object?
10:50What's an object?
10:51How do we preserve it?
10:52So, there were commentaries that have been developed over the year, how we gather those together...
10:55...we made it clickable so you could go see those individual commentaries, what people talked about...
10:59...you could comment on the thing itself.
11:01As I said, there's lots of...what the heck's an object?
11:06So these were ways to get people to start thinking, but what are the documents governing this?
11:10Before you start saying, well, the proclamation says that you can't drive your car into the forest or you can't take...
11:13...your snow ski in there. Have you read it?
11:16Have you thought about it? Have you looked at all the parts?
11:17'Cause it's a very conflicting document.
11:19And again, with the science of IGIS being developed over 25 years...
11:24And about a hundred people, I would say, got online, started reading this stuff, started getting the impact.
11:28So, at least there was a conversation going.
11:32Engaging on action design.
11:34What might actions look like?
11:35I know it's not just a question of do I burn it or do I cut it?
11:38But that's where everyone wanted to start with. You know, are you going to cut the tree...
11:41...or are you not going to cut a tree?
11:42So, to do that, we have to talk about, well, there are other things that you need to think of...
11:46...that you want to worry about, any action you're going to take on this forest.
11:51So, we wanted to develop a decision framework to look at all those criteria.
11:55Now some of those criteria come easily out of your, how would you call it, when you evaluate the socioecology...
12:03...and you've got some metrics from that.
12:04But there are other metrics.
12:06Some of the key metrics on the right-hand side of those intersecting circles are things with trust.
12:10The Forest Service has really blown trust in that area over 25 years.
12:13There's a lot of people with relations, whose relation with the Forest Service and with their neighbors have been very damaged...
12:18...by arguments and fights that have occurred.
12:20So, when we built, when we're looking at this in framework, we're not just looking at those things that...
12:25...come straight out of you know, if you can imagine how the future will look with these changes in place...
12:30...how's my evaluation going, how am I doing?
12:33Okay. Back to this. Okay.
12:36So, you're not really meant to see this; this is a blurry thing, 'cause it was a very moving target.
12:41But one thing I want to point out about this, and I do have this cool green light thing, so we have stuff like...
12:46...protecting visual objects.
12:47'Cause was the key thing in the proclamation, so that appeared in this, and we broke it down to...
12:51...smaller things - the water, the object, et cetera.
12:52Well, the thing I want to bring your attention to is increasing enjoyment in the monument.
12:56That's written in the proclamation; it's a beautiful thing, and it's written right there, you know?
13:00They foster socioeconomics; there are many communities depending on that forest...
13:03...and if you spend much time in forests where people are using them, they're suffering and so this is critical.
13:08I mean, people's livelihoods are at stake.
13:10Made cost-effective, create a compelling plan; this is not what you're thinking, might expect to see there.
13:16This threatens partnerships, this threatens connection to place.
13:20Why a compelling plan?
13:22Because it became very clear that a whole bunch of people don't want to see another planning process...
13:25...that ends up with a plan to get sued the day after it's published.
13:27What's the point? Why should I participate in that?
13:30So these are things that are about process, about relationships, and not necessarily about the straight substantive...
13:34...stuff we often focus on.
13:37So, we began to realize we were having a problem.
13:39We were trying to tell them we're going to build these criteria to help you evaluate plans.
13:43A lot of public, you're going, Eh? How's that going to work?
13:46Meanwhile, the Forest Service themselves were getting nervous, began to realize, wait a minute...
13:50...you're going to think about the decision model we're going to use at the end and use that to tell us...
13:54...what data to think about and to do research on?
13:57Yes, that's what we want to do, I mean, that's, that's, I think the point, that's why what I said...
14:03...as that year went by and I thought about what I'd seen here, in particular, that flow from Carl...
14:06...okay, fine, I’m not the only person that thinks decisions are actually important when you're trying to design the data you want...
14:11...and the process you want to analyze.
14:13So what we did was we decided to sketch the decision process.
14:16This is the scoping, this is long before you [unintelligible].
14:18We've got the Forest Service.
14:19We came up with three crazy alternatives.
14:22One of them was, let it burn, just let nature take its course and stay out of the way.
14:26Another one was to cut everything in sight; go gardening.
14:29And the third was to let every natural fire, was to manage with fire, but in a more sensible way.
14:35We took a subset of those criteria that we have there, and then we got the Forest Service to do something very brave.
14:40We asked each, for those three crazy alternatives, against those alternatives.
14:43We asked the Forest Service experts, would you just give us a quick idea of roughly how you think this might work...
14:53Talk about it.
14:54And so immediately, you guys have all seen it.
14:55When we started at, a - they had some great conversations themselves, b - the public began to realize...
15:00...you're going to tell us how it actually works and why you think about, instead of just waiting...
15:03...until the end and giving us the final alternatives.
15:06And so, this started conversations, and it also showed how a decision would work at the end of the day.
15:12We then went on and I'm running out of time here, but these are all different ways where we got the Forest Service...
15:16...to write down, how do we think about this?
15:18And they themselves are great.
15:19I mean, for instance, this one is about jobs.
15:21The assumption was when they started writing this, oh well, you know, cutting trees will be the best way...
15:24...to keep jobs going in the area.
15:26By the time they finished, they had figured out putting out fires would actually be a better way.
15:29They'll tell you how more people it actually involved and keep controlling the fires smoothly as they tried to bring it back.
15:35And then we get, you know, public online, they put it in their own ways to play with this, they saw how it went, et cetera.
15:36...they sat down with these pieces of paper with the public and with the forest people and said...
15:40Then we took it into big workshops.
15:42And now, you've got real alternatives coming with real analysis, and we sat, and again, they took their...
15:50..."Why did you give it that rating? Why not this rating?"
15:52And then they though it through again, what are the processes that are working?
15:55I'd love to say it all worked out beautifully and that everyone's happy.
15:59But, what happened to the geo goodies?
16:01Well, time and budget knocked resource review assimilation.
16:04There are a bunch of nasty people who claim that because we spent so much time thinking about how we should...
16:08...actually decide the alternatives within the time to do lots of analysis to the alternatives.
16:12It could happen.
16:13But more importantly, planning was determined problematic. The Forest Service themselves...
16:17...realize that what they really need, what they wanted most was not specific actions, but to figure out which...
16:22...documents really guide this forest.
16:24And so it's totally more of a problematic level.
16:29Let's skip over to summaries, I'm out of time, I want you through this more important piece.
16:33Finally, just to wrap up, there's some connections and I wanted to point is Carie Fox and Thom Cheney's art.
16:40If you want, if you like the WPA type art and you'd like to have it in projects, call Tom.
16:46Thank you very much.