Transcript

00:01I'd like to talk to you about three things this morning, assuming I don't use up all my time...

00:04...talking about completely irrelevant topics.

00:08One, that I believe that we're at a moment in the evolution of this nation, the United States of America...

00:16...and of our planet, where we have to have a different type of conversation and, unfortunately...

00:21...one that's become quite unfashionable.

00:23So I'd like to talk to you about the merits of being unfashionable. I've been asked to talk a little bit about...

00:29...innovation and I would enjoy that because I think this is actually necessary to get geodesign from the shiny object...

00:38...cute toy stage to the "it really actually matters to society and civilization and where we're all going."

00:45Now by the way, if you don't do that, I would argue, it will happen anyway.

00:49So if you all just sit there grinning and have nothing to do with, you know, leaving here inspired...

00:56...by the people you've met and the projects they're doing and go create in the marketplace to make...

01:00...geodesign happen, it will happen anyway, but it will take longer and as a result, especially the old farts might miss it.

01:08So part of what I want to talk to you today about is, you could actually make a really big difference personally...

01:15...in how fast this all happens.

01:17And the fact that geodesign is now being talked about, which means people are actually considering it...

01:23...as being a thing is an important step forward and that that conversation is sustaining.

01:29But then the question is, What are you going to do about it?

01:31So I'd like to talk about, what do you want to do, you know?

01:33How do you actually make things actionable in a way that can have impact and a difference...

01:38...in the course of human events, and I also put a little list together because...

01:45...I did the first time around, and I was asked to do it again, your new big six.

01:49What are the six things, if you believe anything I tell you in this talk, that you might want to focus on...

01:53...and think about as how you make them happen.

01:56Just to actually do you.

01:59To me, this notion of design - I mean, design is a great privilege.

02:03Excuse me, I have my daughter's latest cold.

02:08My daughter is in a preschool where we live and she is a human petri dish.

02:13So she gets and brings to me and sneezes in my face with a big smile...

02:19...so excuse me if I start dripping during the [UNINTELLIGIBLE] of this.

02:22It was actually an interesting thing, you know, this "you're getting older" thing.

02:26When I signed her tuition check to her preschool - best as I can understand, preschool is where...

02:30...they teach them to eat crayons.

02:32So I think if you summed up the curriculum, that's basically it.

02:37And the check I sent was exactly the same as my tuition to MIT.

02:40So you know, when you have those kind of calibratory moments where you're saying, "Ooh, we're not in Kansas anymore."

02:49Anyway, stated simply, I think there are only three types of design.

02:55And everything we see in urban design, architecture, et cetera, is some combination of those three...

02:59...primal, first principal forms of design.

03:02The first one is what I would reality-based design, where understanding a sensibility of human beings...

03:07...and what they appreciate, you create things that feel real.

03:10You're in a room like this, try to give a sense of openness and air and daylight.

03:14You're outside, corridors of trees, green spaces, vistas, the underpinnings of [UNINTELLIGIBLE], a whole bunch of other things...

03:21...how do you create things which are [UNINTELLIGIBLE], that's reality-based design.

03:24How do you bring nature into the equation or how do you exclude it from the equation...

03:28...depending on what you're trying to achieve, and that's reality-based design.

03:33The next big element of design is fantasy-based design, where you basically say, screw that...

03:38...I'm doing anything I want, and I want to create worlds and visions and fantasies and whether it's a theatrical...

03:44...Cirque du Soleil vision, a Disneyland vision of a place to bring your family and share experiences that...

03:50...are positive and create lifelong memories, whether it's a restaurant which creates a romantic ambiance...

03:57...or some combination of other things, fantasy-based design is basically saying, Reality isn't good enough...

04:03...I've got a better idea of what could be, and we will cause that set of impressions to happen.

04:09And then the third type of design is bad design.

04:12Unfortunately, it is the dominant form of design and everything I've seen is some combination of...

04:18...these sort of three primal forces.

04:21And as design professionals, I would argue that avoiding bad design might actually be something...

04:27...to hang your hat on as being fair, but the problem is doing that in the real world is really, really hard...

04:35...because most of you don't wake up in the morning and say, "Let's go design something bad."

04:40But you do, as do I.

04:42And it's been a long time since people have decided to crawl in out of the, you know, rain, and find shelter.

04:49How many great houses have you seen?

04:51Why, out of hundreds of millions of houses, you know, all over the place, why are a handful of them great houses?

04:58Why are spaces that you're in, such a small number of them great spaces?

05:01If it turns out that it's very hard, and you actually have to come to a series of understandings and the...

05:07...forces of nature, the forces of government, the forces of a whole bunch of things conspire to maintain...

05:12...the status quo, and the status quo is bad.

05:15And so as a result, making things that are fundamentally different or better is difficult.

05:20You have to tell a compelling story to get someone to sponsor you.

05:24You have to convert code authorities, a whole bunch of other things, who basically...

05:29And you look at things like the Federal Acquisition Regulations, which govern how the Department of Defense buys things.

05:34It's an encyclopedia-sized volume, and basically, anytime someone screwed the government...

05:40...they made a rule that said you can't do that.

05:43It's not anymore elegant than that; there is no big idea; it's just, oh, well, we got screwed because someone to put the thing...

05:49...on the left rather than the right, so you basically write a thing saying, you know...

05:53...the requirements all specify that you do this and this [UNINTELLIGIBLE], and if you don't, they're in violation...

05:57...you don't pay them, you send them to jail, you do a bunch of other things.

06:00And so, that's how most zoning happens, you know. You have preemptive zoning that says, well...

06:04...we're not going to allow toilet in structures.

06:08Well, if you're an artist, you occasionally pee, and it's actually nice to have a toilet.

06:14I live in a city that doesn't allow toilets structures.

06:16Because why? Because the sense is, a hundred gypsies will move in and establish themselves...

06:24...[UNINTELLIGIBLE] of your toilet as the coalescing factor in this artist's studio.

06:30Preemptive zoning - it's all around. Every building you see in every major city is subject...

06:34...to a whole bunch of those sorts of things.

06:36So it doesn't matter, that's from a civility, sensibility, public health, a bunch of other reasons...

06:41...it's probably a good idea to have a toilet in a little building you're going to spend a lot of time in.

06:45You can't have it in the town I live in because of those sorts of things.

06:50So there's a lot of that that goes on.

06:53And the inability of designers who may have great talent in visualization...

06:59...may have great talent in how do you assemble ideas...

07:02...how do you assemble ideas, of how do you make things with high touch, high tech, any number of things like that...

07:06...they often don't have the ability to tell the story in a compelling enough way to get enough people lined up...

07:12...to be able to make the miracle to make the things happen.

07:15And so, how do we help them?

07:17How do we create a set of things which actually helps them tell those stories, and I would argue that's one...

07:22...of the underpinnings of geodesign - it's telling the story.

07:25I would also argue that a set of iterative tools that allows you to do that changes the way you design.

07:32The ability to rapidly iterate...the ability...

07:34Just like you look at film editing.

07:36Computers and film editing - I started editing films when you basically had UNINTELLIGIBLE...

07:41...or Moviolas, and you wanted to change a shot, it took 20 minutes to go find the shot.

07:46You cut it too many times, you damaged the film, you had to make a new work print.

07:50Every time you make a new work print, you handle the negative, you might screw up the original negative...

07:54...so there a lot of pressure - don't do that.

07:55So it forced you to be thoughtful.

07:59It also precluded you from wanting to experiment a lot, just because there was a price to pay...

08:04...an opportunity cost for experimentation.

08:07The good news and the bad news - computer editing came in overnight and it changed things.

08:11And the good news is you can do a hundred different assemblies, you know, do them in minutes, look at the results.

08:17The bad news is it was no longer important to be thoughtful, because there wasn't a consequence to being unthoughtful.

08:23And this sort of question of the consequences of being thoughtful versus not is an important one...

08:29...especially because many of the fundamental issues facing the future of our planet have very long time constants.

08:36And the problem with things with long time constants is we are living in a nation of short-attention-span people.

08:43The kinds of dialogs that happen today - you know, there are people Tweeting about this conference right now.

08:49You can't Tweet more than 140 characters because it was designed not to be able to do that.

08:55It is difficult to express a coherent thought in that much time, so as a result, most Tweets are not coherent thoughts.

09:02And we sort of put it together and we add our own version of coherence.

09:06But the problem is where we are heading, especially in the United States of America, and I always speak...

09:13...about that because it's the only country I know really well.

09:15I travel a lot, but I know this country reasonably well.

09:19And part of the challenge with this short-attention-span thinking is we are at a stage, what I would argue...

09:25...it is impossible to have a sustained public dialog on a complex subject.

09:31And as a result, we don't, and we make decisions based upon hyperbole, on popularity...

09:37...on public rumor, on bullshit, on a whole collection of other things, but not actually a reasonable...

09:44...public dialog and debate about a complex topic, because in a short attention span world, we actually want...

09:51...short, concise, brief, get-to-the-point answers; and without having it - now this has been a long trend.

09:57You know, you look at the past hundred years, whether it's the invention of the postcard - you know, turn of the century.

10:03Someone had to invent it - it's too long to write a letter; do a postcard.

10:06If you make it little, then nobody feels like, you know...

10:09The postcard was a Tweet.

10:11It just happened a hundred years ago.

10:13And the concept of this Tweet was, you only make it this big, and yeah, you could write really small...

10:18...but there's a limit to how small you can write and still see it, so it was a way of basically saying...

10:22...just get to the point and, you know, tell me you love me or do so something like that, and send this thing off.

10:28There has been, you know, Reader's Digest.

10:31Have you heard of it? How many of you read it?

10:34Interesting. You'll notice a very few number of hands; probably 10 hands in the room went up.

10:38It is the most widely circulated magazine on earth.

10:41Here's Reader's Digest.

10:43I have never looked at Reader's Digest except in a doctor's waiting room.

10:46And then I'm afraid to touch it, so I literally just looked at it.

10:53Yet, it's vastly popular.

10:54CliffsNotes. Remember Cliff? You know.

10:57The '50s, right about the time CliffsNotes was, well, gee, you're going to school, you have to get a degree.

11:02How many of you used CliffsNotes?

11:04Oh, a lot more than Reader's Digest.

11:07You know, why?

11:08Because you had to pass the course, you wanted to learn something, but you certainly wouldn't want to...

11:12...take the time to read that great work of literature or, you know, other thing like that, because you don't have time.

11:18You got a lot of things to do, and this is the pressure of modern life.

11:21Word processing - again, you know, letter writing and such.

11:24When you had to write a letter, and if you made a mistake, you had to either start again, or big X or blot it out.

11:32If you had to correct, or used carbon... you know, there's a whole bunch of things.

11:35So progress and innovation and technology makes the dialog shorter.

11:41Television commercials - used to be, television commercials were 90 seconds or 60 seconds long at the beginning of television.

11:47Why? Because the advertisers of the day looked at this fabulous new communications and storytelling...

11:52...medium and said, you can't tell a successful message about selling a product in less than 60 seconds.

12:00Now you look at a 60-second spot, it looks like a miniseries...

12:03...because a normal spot is 30 seconds or 15 or 10 or 5.

12:07Why? Because our brains have been rewired to accept information faster.

12:14The good news is, you get a lot more done.

12:16The good news is, in professions where there's a lot of specialization, you get deeper and deeper and deeper and deeper.

12:21The bad news is, becoming a generalist becomes increasingly impossible because...

12:25...you can't take get deep enough in any of the subjects to actually make a contribution other than being an observer.

12:32And at the same time, quality of life is deteriorating.

12:37That would be alright because you can sort of opt in and out. Actually, you can't.

12:41Try not answering your e-mail for a week or a month and watch what happens, okay?

12:47First of all, you go into withdrawal and you're [UNINTELLIGIBLE].

12:49Second of all, you know, the idea that you're going to get back on e-mail and actually have to look at the...

12:54...50,000 things that, you know, arrived in the 20 minutes you were off.

12:58There is a pressure, and this pressure changes society. It changes the way we think. It has impact...

13:03...it has a whole collection of other things.

13:06The real problem is, the big issues facing our urbanization, we saw it before, we got...

13:12...a hundred years before oil runs out, DNA of the automobile hasn't changed in a hundred years.

13:17What are we actually planning to do about that?

13:20Nuclear energy, you know.

13:23Group says the best thing since sliced bread; it's the only way that's going to get us through.

13:25Another group says, forget it, not there, [UNINTELLIGIBLE].

13:29These are difficult things. The ozone layer. Global warming.

13:32These are issues where the consequences of your actions have very longtime constants.

13:39And as a result, you're not going to see anything really happening based upon the little decisions you're doing here.

13:45And in a world of short attention spans, that creates a real problem.

13:49Because there is no appetite in political leadership to want to do something unpopular here that will get you...

13:56...not reelected, et cetera, et cetera, because you're actually affecting something out there.

14:01There isn't a great appetite for that.

14:03Short-attention-span nations work on crisis, and you go from one crisis to the next; you find the designated victim...

14:09...to blame for the crises; you move on to the next thing.

14:12That's where we are now.

14:14Why am I bringing this up?

14:15Because I think actually geodesign, which to me is a form of storytelling that combines geography...

14:23...combines the databases of everything that is geotemporally locatable in the world - whether it's events...

14:30...devices, places, things, and all of that.

14:32With modeling and simulation, whether that's real time or hyper-real time, to be able to look at it...

14:38...and visualization - to be able to look at and tell the stories and examine the consequences of your actions.

14:46So that if your models are right and you get people to believe it, we actually take a moment to get people...

14:51...to understand that science actually has some relevance in this, and that when we want to talk about...

14:56...something like global or something like that, there's actually science that matters and you have to take the time...

15:02...to understand it, and if you're a leader who's going to make a decision in it, you have to take the time...

15:06...to understand the subject, or you have to trust someone who has taken the time to understand the subject...

15:11...because the dirty little secret in all of this is there are no quick, easy answers to long, complex problems.

15:18Or at least, we haven't found any of them.

15:20And, just as any of these new technologies that are introduced into your life, such as e-mail, Tweeting, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera...

15:27...et cetera, adds value to your life and empowers you to do a whole bunch of things, build social networks...

15:33...do things that you haven't done before, you pay a price for it.

15:36 Now, if the price you're paying for it is something that's reversible, meaning I'm just going to...

15:40...stop Tweeting or I'm going to do something else, great.

15:43If it's something like you burnt the ozone layer off the planet by, you know, clumping it up...

15:48...with chlorofluoromethane and, you know, a bunch of other things...

15:51...well, you know, nobody did that intentionally.

15:54And, in fact, if one scientist didn't happen to look at this...

15:58...then we might still not know that it was going on until, oh, what is this ozone [UNINTELLIGIBLE], why is it happening?

16:04The problem is, on these complex topics, why don't we know about it?

16:08Because at any given moment in time, the number of people thinking about it might be zero, or one, or three, globally.

16:16There's just nobody thinking about it.

16:18And that's why this empowerment of individuals is actually very, very important.

16:23Because you may be the one or one of your kids may be the one that gets around to noticing something...

16:28...that nobody else noticed because the time constants are so long, you don't even see signs of it for 20 or 30 years.

16:34Once you've seen signs of it, it might be irreversible.

16:37Or you might be able to just catch it.

16:39Or there's a price you're going to have to pay, which is a big price to turn the thing around or do something else.

16:45So that's why geodesign matters.

16:48I would argue that this ability to look into the future, show people the future, have it influence your design process...

16:56...[UNINTELLIGIBLE] you can rapidly iterate and look at alternatives, it changes the way you design.

17:01And not only does it change the way you design, but it changes the way you execute design because...

17:06...ultimately it lets you tell the story in a way assuming you take the time to learn the subject...

17:12...build the credibility, validate the models - a whole bunch of things.

17:15Nothing worse than modeling in simulation where basically, it gives you the correct answer to the wrong question...

17:21...and we see a lot of that going on.

17:24But basically, once you get it right, this becomes an enabler, and why does it become an enabler?

17:29Because one of you in this room was qualified to get the model right.

17:33You got the model right, that knowledge shared across all of your geodesign platforms.

17:38Just like the network affected the smart cars.

17:46And then by the way, that, plus an insight of yours and an insight of yours, ends up being really relevant...

17:49So that bit of insight and knowledge didn't have to be re-created again everywhere, it's shared everywhere.

17:53...for a problem none of you ever heard about or understood; but this person does and because it's on the network...

18:00...they are able to understand that and put it together, and in fact, an entire community can form around...

18:05...that whole new subject area; and I would argue, that's the power of geodesign.

18:10It's this network extension of shared intelligence where basically the insights of individuals can be shared...

18:17...among others and that can be used as the foundation to build upon it.

18:20So it's nice to say we'll build better cities, we'll understand transportation, the toxic waste plume...

18:26...you know, we can [UNINTELLIGIBLE] it a little of that.

18:28But I would argue, getting it right just as the Apple store, and this notion of apps, and this notion of wireless...

18:36...mobility, has totally transformed how we think about mobile communications, et cetera, and by...

18:41...definition, transforming the way we think about our planet, and education and transportation and commerce...

18:47...and a whole bunch of other things like that.

18:49On one level, it's doing that; on the other level, it's introducing the option for cyberterrorism...

18:54....and cyberwarfare and a whole collection of other things.

18:56With any of these innovations come corresponding problems.

18:59The time constants are such that you're constantly going back and forth between the yings and the yangs of it.

19:04Understanding the [UNINTELLIGIBLE].

19:05I mean, I was there when the Internet was getting started and, you know, I had e-mail when I was at MIT in 1970...

19:11...but we weren't thinking now about how my kid, you know, 40 years in the future, is going to be learning...

19:18...on one level about her world and building friendships, et cetera, and learning about ballet...

19:22...and a whole bunch of other things that she learned all by herself, because all I am is a better version of Siri.

19:27She tells me what she's interested in; I do data entry; "Thank you, Daddy" - she takes it away...

19:32...and, you know, she's perfectly happy.

19:35I wouldn't have thought about the enablement and what happens when this is how they've grown up in...

19:39...a networked world and understanding it.

19:41I also wouldn't have thought about predators and folks like that who can be out there wanting to do her harm...

19:47...and how am I going to protect her from that?

19:49It's a very difficult set of challenges that you balance, but the answer is not to remain stationary and don't embrace it.

19:56What geodesign is going to do is, on one level, I believe, be the greatest gift for humanity that we have ever experienced.

20:03It is going to be the underpinning just as the Internet, I believe, is the most important technological...

20:09...advance since language.

20:11Far more important than reading and writing.

20:13I said in the past, I think reading and writing gets 250 years; it's a fad, it's over...

20:17...unnecessary, replaced by something else.

20:19Storytelling is fundamental; I think we're wired to be able to do that.

20:22But reading and writing, poof - it'll be gone.

20:25Right now you have, you know, how many people around the world?

20:30Seven billion.

20:33We know exactly how many there are because someone's paying for each and every one of them.

20:37You know how many?

20:38Six billion. Okay?

20:40Now, she has four of them, so it does skew the number slightly, et cetera, but there's something...

20:49...very fundamental and important going on.

20:52And the empowerment that ideas like geodesign have, just as the founders of the Internet, understood this is about...

21:02...connecting everyone on earth and understood that and came up with the architectures of IP...

21:06...and a collection of other things to be intrinsically scalable so that even though, at a time it was done...

21:12...there were a few hundred computers in the world, we could actually now anticipate billions of computers...

21:17...in the world and it was scalable and you can actually change the architecture as we're doing.

21:22...[UNINTELLIGIBLE] six so that we extend this space of address so that it's scalable, et cetera...

21:27...scalable solutions that are important.

21:30So what do you do about this?

21:33How do you actually move forward? [UNINTELLIGIBLE].

21:35You're designers; you're design professionals, [UNINTELLIGIBLE] folks and that.

21:38What's it take to get this stuff done?

21:42And, you know, I was interested - I was on the army science board a long time ago and they commissioned...

21:46...a study on future leaders.

21:48And this was when scenario planning was popular so you basically picked two axes you think are important...

21:55... you know, it could be sales and cost of goods - and you basically look at this quad chart...

22:01...to see what are your possible futures?

22:03Why? Because it means if one of these futures starts happening, at least you've gone through the intellectual...

22:08...exercise of understanding what it might be about and how.

22:12And, the two axes - because the army is really good at measuring things, okay?

22:17So they have things; they know your intelligence, your inseam, how long it takes you to answer a question...

22:22...how fast - everything about you is measured and recorded.

22:25And the two things they thought important for leadership was intelligence.

22:29So they start with intelligence and basically said, okay, one of you is the smartest, one of you is the dumbest.

22:37So just like this, we could measure this, you pick a metric; one of you in this room is the dumbest, one of you is the smartest.

22:42And we could, you know, plot a distribution of you there.

22:45Is it a bell curve? Is it skewed?

22:47You know...hard to know.

22:48And the other was motivation.

22:51So basically, they went from the laziest person, you knew, over here to the most energetic person over here.

22:59It seemed for the army, these were two reasonably good metrics, what happened.

23:03Now, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that if you picked in this room, the dumbest, laziest person...

23:11...there is one of you here.

23:16Hence one of you met them at the beginning of this session.

23:23Probably, if you're looking for the global leader of tomorrow to make the vision of our new cities and world...

23:29...and planet and sustainability and the things all we would agree are important, you don't start with the laziest...

23:34...dumbest person in the room, okay?

23:38And, you know, the interesting thing is, it's not the worst.

23:43It turns out if you pick the dumbest and most energetic person in the room, this can actually be a lot worse.

23:53How many of you have been in organizations run by a dumb, energetic person?

23:58Okay! I rest my case.

24:02And it also turns out, perhaps paradoxically, that the best leaders don't come from here.

24:10Smart and energetic. Why?

24:12Because these people are a huge pain in the ass.

24:16They can do everything better than everybody else in the organization, they're always right, they're this...

24:21...you know, and this kind of thing.

24:22And you know, basically, just kind of annoying to work for these people because, yes, they may...

24:26...be visionary and great leaders and all that but, you know, give it a rest, okay?

24:30This is just that.

24:33It turns out that the best organizational leaders in the army came from this.

24:38People who were smart and kind of lazy.

24:43Why? Because they build self-correcting systems.

24:46So they build teams, they provide leadership, they give guidance; they want to stay at the golf course, okay?

24:53They want to relax and know everything's working fine, and any potential problem that can happen...

24:58...this self-correcting process with the teams who have been empowered corrects itself.

25:02So it turns out, smart, lazy people actually make the most effective leaders in that situation.

25:07Problem is, what do you do with this information? Recruit smart, lazy people?

25:11You know. Then you have an organization where everybody phones it in and pretty soon, there's just nobody...

25:16...to actually do real work.

25:18So the problem is, looking at these issues, understanding these issues is not really good enough.

25:23You actually have to have a construct that allows you to be thoughtful, allows you to generate communities...

25:31...of talent that come around and provide a vision that's self-correcting that puts them there.

25:35It's a different way of creating a market.

25:38It's a way of creating an intellectual market within your organization that has the power and the ability to be...

25:44...definitionally better than you, as the leader, are.

25:46If you do it right, just as the App Store model caused the products of Apple to be better than...

25:52...anything at Apple could be designed internally. Because why?

25:56You got everything that's designed in Apple internally, plus you have the added-on layers...

26:02...of all the apps being designed by clever, interesting people on top of it.

26:05This has got to be better than just this or just that.

26:08So that ability to combine things.

26:10So the problem is, and this is the unpopular part of the discussion, is if we're going to address these...

26:18...big, global issues facing us, and whether that's disease, whether it's education, whether it's fresh water...

26:26...whether it's you know, you name it; it's this a whole list of really big issues that we have to deal with...

26:31...global warming, et cetera, et cetera.

26:32If you're going to get that done, you actually have to take a long view.

26:37Right now, organizations develop a plan.

26:41How many of your organizations have a five-year plan?

26:45How many have you have ever thought seriously farther than 18 months into your five-year plan?

26:50Not one hand.

26:51Okay; that's what spreadsheets were made for.

26:53You punch it in Excel; you have reasonable growth expectations, outcomes, et cetera; it runs the numbers...

26:58...say yeah, [UNINTELLIGIBLE]; oh, no, that looks like we're being too ambitious; dial it down a little; this does this.

27:03But nobody thinks in a next-quarter short-attention-span business environment.

27:05And I think that's actually a quite good way to think about our planet and about global extinction...

27:07You know, if you're thinking out 18 months, you're doing well.

27:11And many people are thinking, next quarter or 20 minutes or 5 minutes into the future.

27:17So the problem is, I would argue, that we actually need to start a different type of dialog, and for this planet...

27:24...we need - pick a number - a 250-year plan...

27:28...just as we need a 250-year plan for the country and a 250-year plan for geodesign.

27:33Borrowing from the military, that thinks about modern warfare differently.

27:37Old days, they used to think about attrition.

27:39You beat the enemy senseless until they stopped fighting you; that was the basis of war.

27:44We've now switched to something which we think is a new idea - Sun Tzu probably thought it was new idea...

27:49...a few thousand years ago - but it's called a effects-based warfare, where you basically start with an interesting premise...

27:56....which is, you know, what is my current state?

27:59State of affairs or the topic to worry about.

28:01What is your desired end state, and then how are you going to get there?

28:10...and about a whole bunch of things.

28:11Here we are now.

28:12If we pay attention, we know where we are now.

28:15We can actually take a census, understand where we are, the statistics and all that.

28:19Let's look forward 250 years; where do we want to be then?

28:24Now we know a bunch of things will happen.

28:25We'll run out of oil.

28:26We'll do this - yeah, we'll find more, we'll run out of it again, we'll do a whole bunch of things.

28:29So you know, there's not going to be this; there's not going to be that.

28:31There's going to be a collection of things.

28:33Where do you want to be in 250 years?

28:35What's the end state?

28:36I would argue that having the discipline to just sit down for a day and think about that will change...

28:42...your whole thought process.

28:44If you get it right, it doesn't mean you're going to know exactly what the future is any more than in scenario...

28:49...planning, you know exactly what the outcomes are, but having a sense that it's over there, and having a...

28:54...sense that, in 250 years, you'd like to address these things at least gives you an intellectual template...

29:01...and a road map to test your ideas against.

29:04It also gives you a way of having a different type of conversation, saying that, well, on one level...

29:09...there's the time and pressure of the near term.

29:11The mid-term and the near term, the projects you have to deliver, the things you're being gauged upon.

29:16Right now, most of us don't have a metric to gauge that against the long-term end state that we would like to end up in.

29:22So it might turn out to be a great idea; it might not.

29:25But I would argue, having a 250-year plan...

29:27...enabled by geodesign would give one a framework, give our leaders a framework...

29:33...give our urban planners a framework, give our architects, our zoning people the framework to say...

29:37...you know, people have been thinking about this; people continue to think about it.

29:41That same network effect in geodesign, the more work people do on the long-term plan, the more that body of knowledge increases...

29:48...that becomes the template that other people can build and learn from.

29:51And pretty soon, you're on the path to doing something, I would argue, that could be really important...

29:56...which is provide an intellectual and creative framework for the design communities to use in what is...

30:01...the end state that we're trying for.

30:04Now, will you get it wrong?

30:06Of course, you'll get it wrong, so by definition you need to incorporate the notion of...

30:11...agility and flexibility into this 250-year plan so that, as you get something wrong...

30:17...you can react to it easily and quickly and be able to come up with, frankly, a better idea, and say...

30:23...oops, we got this wrong, we have new information - plug it into the model; the model changes...

30:28...we now understand there's something we actually missed.

30:30That's the power of distributed network simulations and such.

30:34Once you figure out what it is, it also means that people with wild ideas can plug it into the model...

30:40...and everybody can learn from that.

30:42When I say "plug it into the model," it means, gee, I have a model of how trees grow, and how people move...

30:48...and how cities sprawl and how the rains move, et cetera, et cetera.

30:52So the idea is, you can create a vision of the future and get to see, will it happen? Will it not?

30:59What did you get wrong? What did you get right?

31:01I would argue, the very act of doing that, building these models, will show you things you never thought about.

31:07And you didn't realize the effects of this because you have to think about not just the first order effect...

31:12...of what you design - if you're talking about designing cities and worlds in our future - but the second...

31:17...third, and nth order effects, which are often not obvious at the time you do it.

31:22It sometimes takes time.

31:23You have to go live with it, you gotta see what - you know, the people who designed the projects...

31:26...didn't think they were building ghettoes.

31:28They thought they were building something which was an efficient process and urbanization to do something.

31:33It's just they didn't understand a set of social dynamics of how people in cities would behave.

31:37And so now that we do, you say, Okay, well, we understand this tends to happen.

31:41It doesn't mean you can't have an innovative idea where you think you can reinvent the project...

31:45...and do it in a way that's fundamentally better and superior.

31:48Great! Plug it in, try it out.

31:51If it doesn't work in the model and you're a good enough storyteller, get someone to sponsor you doing it...

31:57...and then we all get to see.

31:58That's part of this ongoing experiment that the design is about.

32:02So, I'm running late on time.

32:06The organizations that you have to build to do this - it's important that you understand...

32:11...the people in your organization and your customers.

32:14And the people in your organization are like you.

32:17Why? Because if you built your organization, you hired the people you like, and you didn't hire the people you don't like.

32:22And if you were hired, it's because they hired you because you're like them, and it didn't.

32:27And we talk about how we love and embrace change; we don't, nobody likes change, it's annoying, it's disruptive.

32:33We talk about how innovation is essential.

32:35It isn't; it's mainly just a big pain in the ass, and most people don't like it and don't want to have anything to do with it.

32:40You know, every company on earth says you have to get out of the box; what they mean is...

32:44...we need a new box, and I want to as quickly as possible get you from the old box into the new box.

32:49But importantly, this notion of, how do you build organizations that do this, I would argue, there really are...

32:58...two types of people in the world who build organizations in their own image.

33:03Two types of people?

33:04I guess people who believe there are two types of people in the world and people who don't would be one of them.

33:09Express the vision to me in a PowerPoint deck called a preliminary requirements document.

33:10So you know, there's this sort of thing, but I digress.

33:14The first type is what I would call a requirements person.

33:17Requirements person believes in a generally quite quantitative process to how you get business of design done.

33:26You put together a team; you empower this team.

33:28Okay.

33:30What does empowering mean?

33:31No one knows, but you can't have a team that isn't empowered and expect them to be effective...

33:34...so you sprinkle water on them and you empower them - in my case, Diet Coke, and go forth.

33:40You give them terms of reference, et cetera.

33:42Any well-empowered requirements-based team believes that, in order to be effective, you have to be measured...

33:49...so they will bring out a set of metrics, because if you can't measure it, you can't manage it, et cetera, et cetera.

33:54They are encouraged to go off and speak to the customer because they are admonished...

33:58...that they never speak to the customer [UNINTELLIGIBLE], look at best practice, see what they're doing in Bolivia...

34:04...you know, go around and look at all of the great projects and come up with, you know, a vision.

34:14You do that.

34:15You put it together, you submit it to senior management, and it's based upon questioning the customer...

34:19...research and development, prototyping, a whole bunch of due diligence that you do for it...

34:24...good economic modeling, et cetera.

34:25It is immediately rejected - faster than the speed of light, in fact, is it rejected. Why?

34:30Because it's too expensive and it's going to take too long.

34:33So you start a process called value engineering, which means, go back to the customer...

34:36...and tell them, I know you said you have to have all these things, but it's going to take too long...

34:39...you can't afford it - what can you live with?

34:41The integrated process team, IPT, that's been put together to do this project, one by one, people are leaving.

34:47This is boring, nobody's taking it seriously.

34:49Finally you're down to the last two people at Esri responsible for this grand vision and...

34:56...they're spending most of their time looking for the tallest building in Redlands to throw themselves from...

35:02...in order to, in protest to, you know, the fact that the grand vision for geodesign and how we're going to...

35:09...productize this, is not going to happen.

35:12As if by magic, it gets approved. Why?

35:15Well, it's interesting.

35:16Because actually no one has ever seen the moment of approval in a requirements-based organization. Why?

35:21Because nobody in a requirements-based organization has a "yes" vote but everybody has a "no" vote.

35:27So the only reason something happens is someone forgot to say no.

35:31Somewhere in the organization, they forgot to say no.

35:33The door slammed shut, it blew from the in basket into the out basket.

35:37There was a photograph taken once of this process happening.

35:40Some people think it was Photoshopped, but nonetheless, we don't know how projects are approved, but it happens.

35:47In which case, the work product from the IPT is tossed over to the transom to some group of people...

35:53...whose job it is to execute.

35:55They say, what is this piece of crap?

35:58We tried this three times; it's never worked in the past, nothing you're saying is any new, it's not going to work in the future.

36:04We say, what are you talking about? You were part of the IPT that made this.

36:09They say, We never borrow good people in the IPTs; they've got real work to do, so we disavow all knowledge...

36:14...of this thing, but we'll build it anyway.

36:17They build it, time goes on, it gets tossed over another transom to the customer, who says, What the hell is this?

36:23This has nothing to do with anything we talked about; it's not even recognizable.

36:27But we'll try it.

36:28They try it; one of two things happens.

36:30Either it's a huge success, in which case, everybody basks in the reflected glory of a well-executed requirements program...

36:36...and life moves on, people are promoted - life is good.

36:39And understand, in these organization where nobody can say yes/no, know, a behavioral model...

36:42...is that you are never rewarded for success but you are always punished for failure.

36:50And you wonder why in government organizations that you're working with to get things done...

36:54...that the bureaucrats you're working with don't love your great new plan?

36:57It's because, if anything goes wrong with your plan, they will be punished and a career-ender.

37:03And if you're plan goes right, they will get no credit for it, you will credit for it.

37:08So all you're doing is driving up risk and cost and a whole bunch of other things...

37:11...which is why it's in their DNA not to approve your grand plan for the new city.

37:16Anyway, does that process sound familiar to any of you?

37:18I'm sure none of you have experienced it.

37:20But I'm here to tell you, there's a fundamentally different process, which I always call the big idea process...

37:26...as compared to other requirements' process.

37:27And I'm not saying one is better than the other.

37:29But in big-idea organizations, you never have teams; you basically have visionaries.

37:34You have people who are anointed as being the visionary du jour because they had something that was a success.

37:40Motion picture business, star architects, other folks like that, the person is a superstar because they did...

37:45...something really great, they were acknowledged for it; we trust that they'll find a way to pull this whole thing together.

37:50You never talk to the customer.

37:52Because the sense is, the customer will only give you a mild, incremental improvement...

37:56...if that, on what you already have.

37:58You want to invent a smartphone, go to a BlackBerry user and say, What would you do to make the phone of the future?

38:05How many of them do you think would say, "Get rid of all the buttons, make the screen three times as high...

38:09...get me half the battery life, make the battery not interchangeable, create an App Store, and give me multi-touch"?

38:16Okay? How many BlackBerry users do you think - how many groups of users would ever come up with that?

38:22And the answer is, none of them would.

38:25And in fact, most of the people that resisted switching over to iPhones and the next generation of smartphones...

38:31...it's because everything about it ran against their grain, and everything they loved about their device, they took away.

38:37Now, why do they change? Because they don't have a choice.

38:41Because, you know, they die; you know, there's a whole bunch of things that happen - they basically do that.

38:46They're embarrassed by their girlfriends or children or other things into, what are you doing with that diesel phone?

38:55You basically wear them out, is why people change.

38:57Well, there's a whole other community that embraces it.

38:59I urge you to raise...Clayton Christensen's Innovator's Dilemma, talking about in companies...

39:04...how companies keep going to the fancier, higher-margin things, because the people come in from the bottom...

39:09...and take the commodity businesses, which they don't want anyway because...

39:12...there's is no margin, and then someone comes in and takes theirs and they keep going.

39:16Problem is, as you go up this food chain, because here's where you get the margin...

39:20...where you can actually make money, the size of the market keeps going down until eventually, you have no market.

39:25You can't move down the food chain because...

39:27...your cost of business is up and you go poof.

39:30And that's what's happening; look at the Eastman Kodaks, look at the General Motors; look at the companies that have been there.

39:35Can they survive these near-death experiences?

39:38Sometimes. Poloroid didn't; a whole bunch of them haven't.

39:41There are almost no companies that are more than a hundred years old.

39:43Time constants. Why?

39:45Because it's hard to be more than a hundred years old because everything that made you great is the thing...

39:49...that prevents you from being different in this innovative new world.

39:54So what's the point?

39:56Big-idea organizations - they look at the world entirely differently.

40:00They have a team. The job of a team is to get the vision of the grand fromage to happen.

40:02And then, by the way, let's go pick the actors that were in the highest-grossing films of all time.

40:06The guy or gal who's the director - you know, you work on a Steven Spielberg movie...

40:09...you're a three-time Academy Award ... you know, director of photography, musician, et cetera, et cetera - you know...

40:16...you're not there to do your movie; you're there to do Steven Spielberg's movie.

40:19And your job is to use your creative talent to make it better, and if you're the director of photography...

40:24...make it beautiful; if you're the set designer, make it beautiful.

40:27And any of you get run over a truck, the union will have a replacement there that afternoon to look at the dailies...

40:32...and they'll keep shooting and life will be good.

40:34And it goes on.

40:36And, you know, every so often, people say, this is a hit-driven business, you know, and a bunch of things will flop and all it takes is one hit.

40:43You know, one out of 10 films in the movie studio, it works.

40:46The rest of them are going to be dogs, it doesn't happen.

40:49So how do you do this, then?

40:51How do you put things together?

40:53Because the grown-ups say, wait a minute, you know, why don't you go some due diligence?

40:57Go find out, what are the highest-grossing films of all time.

41:00Find out what they've got.

41:07Get me some of those, let's put it together, put a requirements document together, and let's make a movie, okay?

41:12So that's why people design our cities; let's put the requirements together for the city, we'll do a...

41:16...design charette, we'll put the whole thing together, here's what matters, overlay it, with all the rules, okay.

41:20So, your answer would be, Leonardo DiCaprio, you know; a dinosaur or some blue guy, you know...

41:30...and a thing; and a boat, okay.

41:32Highest-grossing films - those are the things. We got it, boss. Here's a big three... we're ready to go.

41:39And all of a sudden, look back and say, what are you kidding me, this is going to cost too much...

41:42...we'll never get this, take too long, et cetera.

41:45Great. [UNINTELLIGIBLE].

41:46We'll get rid of the blue guy; [UNINTELLIGIBLE] DiCaprio on the boat; what kind of movie do you want to make?

41:50Ask the audience, you know.

41:52Well, you ask the audience and they generally say, Don't look at us, we're not the professionals...

41:57...you're the creative people, you know.

41:58But I can tell you the one thing - we love surprise endings.

42:01Okay. Everyone you ask about what your favorite kind of movie is, surprise ending is very high on the list.

42:06How many of you like surprise endings?

42:07Good. Right. Okay.

42:08Would you do Titanic?

42:10I mean, you knew the ending, right?

42:11The boat's going to sink.

42:14Anyone walk in to see Titanic, that didn't expect at some point in the damn movie, the boat's going to sink.

42:20Okay? It's a given.

42:22Reality is, you don't make the great movies.

42:25You don't make anything based upon a bunch of requirements.

42:27A bunch of requirements, asking the audience, doing all of that, following rules, playing by the rules...

42:32...might get you a little run in extension.

42:34You had something that's really popular here; you could have version 2, version 3, version 11, et cetera.

42:40Pretty soon, you run out.

42:41You want innovation, you need big ideas.

42:43Big ideas come from individuals, not teams of people who can inspire people, terrorize people...

42:49...some combination of things to bring their force of will to bear to get their ideas and visions to happen.

42:55Some of you in this room are those visionaries, and geodesign to you will be an empowerment tool that allows...

43:01...the people who are there to help you move forward.

43:04You realize, you're not going to succeed without them helping you and so you play by the rules...

43:09...in order to get that to happen.

43:10...If you're not one of those creative people who's going to [UNINTELLIGIBLE] thing, go find one, because they're...

43:15......a very powerful force to get the big ideas that have changed our world to happen.

43:20Architecture is full of them; urban planning, a whole bunch of things.

43:23Someone just has an idea.

43:24Everyone says it's impossible, it'll never happen - they make everybody's life miserable, put their life, their...

43:30...reputation, their finances, their family on the line, to get the thing to happen, because that's how these people work.

43:37So what's the problem?

43:38Let's just get a few of each, we'll put together the 250-year plan, and we can move out.

43:43Problem is, these people, the requirements people who build most of our world, the big-idea people...

43:49...who develop the ideas, hate each other, okay.

43:53So, requirements people, big-idea people.

43:57The requirements people the big-idea people are undisciplined babies, irresponsible...

44:03...completely disruptive to how the organization works and simply shouldn't be tolerated.

44:08Okay. Suffice to say, the big-idea people think the requirements people bring the life force out of the room.

44:14They don't even have to say a word; their mere presence precludes the possibility of a creative outcome.

44:21Problem is, if you, the future designers of our cities and our world, don't solve this problem and get...

44:28...those two groups to play well together, you cannot build cities without requirements people.

44:33It will not happen.

44:34Those are the people that run the world, run the government, and run the things that you need to get a yes from.

44:40It doesn't matter if you're on time, on budget, you design something really bad and awful and it will never...

44:47...be better than really bad and awful, and you're not going to get there by filling out the requirements.

44:51There's a common misconception in the requirements organizations, that simply having the right requirements...

44:56...gives you the correct outcome or a creative outcome or an innovative outcome.

45:00There is no evidence to suggest that's true.

45:02I know of no example of a requirements process that has ever yielded a creative or innovative output...

45:07...because it's not what it does.

45:09Why is that a problem?

45:10Well, it's a problem because sometimes you need real innovation, which is what we need in our society...

45:15...and our planet right now.

45:17We had a pretty good run without requiring innovation.

45:19I said before, innovation is really annoying.

45:22If you manufacture penicillin, do you want innovation?

45:24Do you want everyone in the company leaving their personal imprint on the molecular structure of your drug?

45:29Probably not.

45:33Designing our cities is much like that.

45:35You build buildings, you want to be just the same as the others.

45:38They want to be safe; they want to be this, they want to be that.

45:40The fact is, the end state is never where you want to be.

45:44That's the course we're on now, and we've got to fix it.

45:47I'm looking at you to fix it, and I think the big principles that you have to look at in this are, first of all...

45:54....understanding, big ideas are not due to the United States.

45:58Bill of Rights, remember that?

46:00Pretty big set of ideas.

46:01You could argue, it was the 250-year plan.

46:04It was done about 250 years ago; it's working just as well now as it did the day that it's authored, and...

46:10...it created, much like the smart and lazy speaker, it created a self-correcting mechanism to run this nation...

46:17...by and created, incidentally, a global, a world market for freedom, freedom rights...

46:24...independence, a whole bunch of things which other people built their constitution, other elements on.

46:29It's a very powerful, fundamental idea.

46:31It is an algorithm; it is a thing which allows you to go back and look at it.

46:35It can be debated; it has some ideas that were strong; some that were weaker; some that have to be...

46:40...contemporized, as we're looking at with gun control and a whole collection of things, due to the...

46:45...changes in behaviors of society and consequences that take a long time constant to figure out, but it was an important idea.

46:52So I think you need to design the bill of rights for our planet, and I think you need to use geodesign to do it.

47:00I think we have to come up with a fairly simple set of principles that, 250 years from now, when people look back...

47:06...they're going to say, gee, that was a remarkable document that those people put together, just as...

47:10...Bill of Rights was, because it provided a self-correcting process that became more and more relevant as time went on.

47:18Why?

47:19Because the Bill of Rights doesn't talk about why it's illegal to park your horse out in front...

47:23...of the capitol building overnight.

47:26Okay? That's how urban planning, rules - it's none of that.

47:30It basically says, here's what's important to human beings.

47:33Because the thing to keep in mind is, rules of thumb like Moore's Law, tell us that every 18 months...

47:40...a number of transistors, which we can equate to the processing power of a computer, is going to double...

47:46...at constant cost, or the cost is going to drop in half for constant computing power.

47:51It's worked for 30 years, it's going to continue to work.

47:52You know how much computing power you're going to have and have available.

47:55Ferren's Law is that human beings in our cities and our planet isn't governed by Moore's Law...

48:00...and the time constants of how people change and societies change and cultures change, on the macro level...

48:06...takes a very long time.

48:07And we care about the same things we've always cared about, which are love, companionship, our families...

48:13...food, shelter, safety, those fundamental things.

48:16And that's what you need to do when building the bill of rights for our planet.

48:20I would argue that geodesign is the organizing principle in what will become the toolkit that allows you...

48:25...first of all, to do that; to create the marketplace for sharing the intellectual and creative ideas...

48:31...to provide the platforms that the innovators can test their ideas against; and, at the same time, to provide a path...

48:37...forward so the near-term projects, which is what all of us as design professionals are involved with...

48:42...on a daily basis, can be judged against some goal and road map for the greater good.

48:49I think if I had to give you a big six, it's in the midst of the chaos that comprises most of our modern life...

48:54...and contemporary design process, encourage taking time to have a long-term plan...

49:00...and spend a little bit of your life with some time reserved to think in the long term.

49:05Two, be brave and willing to take on hard, long-term problems even though it's unfashionable...

49:11...and all of the forces of nature and of the design world and the practices you're working in...

49:16...are going to punish you rather than reward you for that.

49:20There is an opportunity cost; it will not happen if you just allow things to run their course.

49:25Use science combined with engineering and design to rise above the rhetoric...

49:31...to start and sustain a public dialog - emphasis, public dialog - on the topics that really matter...

49:39...so that we can actually have a debate and a discussion; and if people are being asked to make sacrifices...

49:44...which they will - people will make sacrifices from their world view of where they are now...

49:50...in order to make the future happen.

49:52They're not going to do that unless you've taken the time to tell the story in a compelling way...

49:57...where they realize why it's worth making a sacrifice.

50:00You talk to anyone who's a parent, and they will make a sacrifice - can I have the slide, plese?

50:06One slide I brought you.

50:08That's my daughter Sarah with the gang she runs.

50:12And you know, that's what we're doing all of this for.

50:17We have to protect the people who don't have the power to protect themselves.

50:20We have to protect the species that don't have the power to protect themselves.

50:24We have to work against the self-interest groups that may, in fact, not align with the long-term plan that's beneficial.

50:32Why? Because a different set of mechanisms run, that corporations that exist as a multinational corporation...

50:39...to maximize the profits to their investors.

50:42A person running that in the United States goes to jail if they don't take seriously running to maximize...

50:48...the profits for their investors.

50:49Nowhere is there a bill of rights for the planet that someone says, But by the way, it's okay if you pay attention...

50:56...to these things that matter.

50:58There needs to be, because otherwise, I would argue, the forces of nature that cause one set of entities [to be] successful...

51:04...will by definition suppress another set of entities.

51:07Some of those entities need to be protected from suppression.

51:10Some, by the way, should just go away, and it's just fine.

51:13There are a whole bunch of thing where, you know, not everything should be preserved in our planet, and we have to understand that.

51:18I think we have to create aspirational role models so kids like my daughter have people to look up to...

51:23...to say, I want to be like that when I grow up.

51:26And the role models can't just be musicians and can't just be drug dealers in the inner city...

51:31...and they can't just be celebrities.

51:33They have to have people who have had an impact on our world.

51:36One of the things geodesign can do...

51:38...is help elevate the presence of those people so we create role models so that we actually have the feed stock...

51:45...intellectually and creatively in the geodesign community necessary to take it to these next stages.

51:50Because if you can't attract the best and the brightest, you're done.

51:53They're going to move somewhere else, and this stuff is not going to happen the way it ought to.

51:59I think you have to lead by geodesign; I think you have to use it as a tool to educate our educators...

52:05...to educate our politicians, to educate our political and media leadership, so that they understand...

52:12...the consequences of their action.

52:14But rather than just say this is all doom and gloom so might as well just stay home and kill yourself...

52:18...that actually, here's something we can do about this.

52:21You have to be, on one level, realistic about understanding the science and mechanisms [of] what's really happening.

52:27On the other end, you have to be proactive and positive about how are we going to get our way out of this.

52:32Because nobody is interested in hearing more bad news.

52:35You want to pick what's wrong with our country at the moment, everything you hear is bad news.

52:40In order to have good news, you have to, I would argue, have this aspirational end state...

52:45...which is understandable and, with hard work, achievable; because everyone I know who has a family...

52:52...will make enormous sacrifices for their family.

52:55We do all of this for our kids.

52:56That's why we need to do geodesign; it's for our kids.

53:00It's not for anything else.

53:02It's giving the world back in a slightly better way than the way we found it.

53:08To do this, I would argue, as geodesigners, you are going to be entrusted, the geodesigners of the future...

53:14...with the same power over our life and death that our doctors have...

53:17...just with a longer time constant, okay?

53:20So they make a mistake, your surgeon makes a mistake, and you hear those words...

53:24...you'd really not like to hear, "Oops," you know?

53:28You know, not good.

53:30The mistakes you make in planning and designing our cities may take a hundred years...

53:34...until someone understands the consequences of those actions.

53:39Hippocratic Oath for geodesign - first, do no harm.

53:43Really sort of understand what you're doing and the effect and, by the way, you're going take chances, you're...

53:48...going to do things, but if you know this is going to create long-term harm and damage, it is not okay to do it...

53:54...even though you're being paid to do it and there's a lot of pressure that says you should do it. It's not okay.

53:59You need to have a long-term vision.

54:01I'm recommending 250 years, but something that is a living document that is the expression...

54:07...of the best, brightest, and most creative people thinking about this subject in a way that is comprehensible to others.

54:13The others who make decisions and the others who have to live by those decisions, called "our people."

54:18And the species who don't happen to be people but are also living inhabitants of this planet...

54:23...who we have the custodianship over.

54:26We have the power to make them go away; we have the power to protect them; it is our obligation to life to protect them.

54:33Consider the second, third, and nth order effects of what we create.

54:38Not in a way that it paralyzes you.

54:39Because you can get into this analysis/paralysis mode, where we're going to study this for the next hundred years.

54:44I'm not suggesting that at all.

54:46What I'm saying is, understand the consequences of what you're doing.

54:51But you have to think more about what you're doing than did you check off all the boxes...

54:56...gee, I've got [UNINTELLIGIBLE], you know, super palladium platinum rating.

55:00I've got this, I've got a whole bunch of other things.

55:02But the net result is the city will have no water in 50 years, and therefore maybe this isn't...

55:08...actually the right place to go build this new city.

55:11You have to think about that.

55:12And finally, I would take your charge seriously as the custodians of our planet and that storytelling...

55:23...is the most powerful tool you have to send the messages of your insights forward.

55:28We're not on this earth very long.

55:30You know, a mere blip; you look at the history of our planet.

55:35Try to leave it a little better than how we found it.

55:38You know, just, that's part of the profession.

55:40Your job is to really just, at the end of the day, [UNINTELLIGIBLE] place is a little better than when you found it.

55:44And if we all do that, if we take the time to be thoughtful, if we work to build consensus...

55:51...because on one level you have the paradox of the great visionaries - don't actually want to listen to anyone.

55:56It's just their plan they want to execute.

55:58At the same time, nobody's going to let them do it if it's going to be on a global scale without building a consensus.

56:04So, you've got to build it.

56:05And you, Mr./Ms. Visionary over here, have to realize your vision is never going to happen unless...

56:11...you build the sort of consensus necessary to make it happen; and you, the people who are going to go build it...

56:16...have got to realize it doesn't matter what your budget, schedule, and time is; if it turned out to be a bad idea...

56:22...you're going to fail.

56:23And as a result, you're going to fail in the domain we're talking about; we're going to fail...

56:27...our planet's going to fail, our society's going to fail.

56:30I've taken far more too much time.

56:33Really appreciate the opportunity to get back to talk to you.

56:35But, please don't do this for me, do it for her.

56:39Thanks.

Copyright 2014 Esri
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Five Minutes into the Future: An Argument for Taking a Longer View

Bran Ferren, chief creative officer of Applied Minds, LLC explores how geodesign is becoming a new form of storytelling that will elevate the importance of key issues and global topics.

  • Recorded: Jan 24th, 2013
  • Runtime: 56:40
  • Views: 501
  • Published: Feb 12th, 2013
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