00:01Welcome to Census 2010 and the Data User

00:03I'm Lynn Wombold with Esri.

00:05I'm a demographer, and the other geographers allow me to sit in once in awhile.

00:15This morning we're gong to talk about Census 2010…

00:18…which is the benchmark of all demographic data for the next decade.

00:24Before we get too far into this, I'd like to tell you yes, I have a lot of tables…

00:29…and facts and figures and things in here.

00:32These presentations are going to be available online.

00:36There will be a conference proceedings CD, but you will also be able to get this online.

00:41So don't make yourselves crazy trying to copy down all the facts and figures.

00:45You'll be able to get it later.

00:48Okay, let's get started here.

00:51When last we met, last year, we were talking about what we expected to happen with Census 2010.

00:58This time we can talk about what's actually going…

01:02…what has happened and what is still happening with Census 2010.

01:06So I'm going to speak a little bit about what's new…

01:09…and we're going to take a look at the counts themselves.

01:13What we expected to find, what we've actually found…

01:17…and, of course, the change over the past ten years.

01:21The wonderful thing about a decennial census is that it gives you pause…

01:25…to turn and see some of the longer term trends.

01:30Sort of seeing the forest as opposed to just looking at the trees.

01:34You see the big picture.

01:36Demographic change tend not to be sudden.

01:39It's not economic change, come on.

01:42A lot of the trends occur over a very long period of time.

01:45And if you're not a demographer, you can miss them.

01:48So I'm here to help you see what we think are the big trends that we've seen so far.

01:53And of course, what would we be without looking at geographic change, eh?

01:59So. First of all, what to expect.

02:06The data that's been released so far, we've got first the reapportionment counts.

02:12We have gotten the redistricting data.

02:16And those are the main reasons for the census.

02:18We could actually just pretty much stop right now.

02:21The apportionment counts are what you need.

02:23That's your constitutional mandate for the census.

02:27And the redistricting data is all released on time.

02:32That's what a lot of the presentation this morning will be about, so…

02:40The reapportionment counts we got actually 10 days early.

02:45They're due by December 31st of the census year…

02:47…we picked them up 10 days early, thank you Census Bureau.

02:52And that's what's going on right now, is reapportioning the House of Representatives.

02:59Oh, my gosh.

03:03I see what the problem is. My apologies. This is last year's presentation.

03:11This is where we are in terms of what's new with this census.

03:18Right now we have the apportionment counts, we have the redistricting data.

03:22Summary file one is in progress.

03:24As of about a week ago, I think we had 12 states there.

03:29So what's new with this particular census…

03:31…just you haven't been paying attention, weren't here last year, whatever.

03:36When they finish with releasing Summary file one…

03:40…state by state, that's pretty much going to be it.

03:44There is no sample beta with this particular census.

03:47We're done now.

03:48Short form only, there you go.

03:51So. It also happens to be the most expensive census to date.

03:56Not surprising there.

03:58It did come in under budget.

04:00According to the bureau, everything came in under budget, so we're good.

04:04But 14.5 billion by comparison in 2000, it was 4.5 billion.

04:14So you're looking at an increase, either total or per capita of about 200 percent.

04:21That's more or less how it breaks down over the past hundred years or so, quite an increase.

04:27So when you look at the difference, the decrease in the number of questions and the amount of data…

04:33…the increase in the cost, I think if you put the two trends together…

04:38…maybe they could just text it to us the next time and save a little bit of money.

04:43Anyhow, let's take a look at the counts and what we've got going on here.

04:55Reapportionment counts, like I said, we got early.

04:58The redistricting counts we also got a little bit early.

05:01Those are due out, again, by federal law, Public Law 94171.

05:06Have to be released within one year of the census and so they were.

05:10The Census Bureau has been releasing a little bit earlier.

05:14So question of the day is, What did we expect?

05:20For reapportionment, these numbers were put together by Kim Brace of Election Data Services…

05:27…but they were based upon our state population totals.

05:32And prior to receiving the accounts, it was last fall that they put this out…

05:36…this is what they expected to see in terms of reapportionment of the House of Representatives.

05:42As you can see, quite a gain in Texas.

05:47Quite a gain across the south actually.

05:50Loss in the Midwest, loss in the northeast, and the west picking up a few states.

05:57The trick with Congressional reapportionment, though, is that it is not just total population.

06:03By law they also have to take into account federal military…

06:08…and civilian employees overseas and their dependants.

06:12At least that can be allocated back to a state.

06:15So the formula is a bit more complex than just state resident population totals.

06:21So this is what we expected to see.

06:26This is what we see.

06:29This is exactly what happened.

06:30Kim Brace got the numbers exactly right.

06:34If you look at the changes by region, that's what you get.

06:37A net gain of seven in the south, the west picked up four seats, and the losses, of course…

06:45…continue to be concentrated primarily in the northeast.

06:48They lost five seats there, and the Midwest, they lost six seats.

06:53I should point out, though, among the states that are losing seats…

07:00…they didn't really lose population except for Michigan.

07:02That was the only state that actually had a decline in population.

07:07The loss of a seat has more to do with population size…

07:11…relative to the other states than it does to loss or gain of the population.

07:18The other thing that was projected accurately…

07:21…was that they thought maybe North Carolina was close to picking up one more seat.

07:28As it turns out, the last seat in the House was assigned to Minnesota.

07:33North Carolina was close primarily because of the military overseas population…

07:38…that actually would be assigned back to North Carolina.

07:43They picked up the last seat in 2000, barely edging out Utah.

07:47So I guess it was Utah's turn this time.

07:50Maybe in 2020 they will get another one.

07:53But that's what we see in terms of reapportionment.

07:57Right now what you see is virtually every state and local entity now dealing with redistricting data.

08:05We don't really do redistricting, my team doesn't…

08:08…but what I'm going to show you is what we have seen in the data so far…

08:13…that will certainly affect them.

08:15Now a year ago, we told you this is more or less what we expected to find…

08:19…for population counts from 2010 Census.

08:24We expected the total pop would be around 310 million as of April 1 based upon our updates.

08:31We expected that almost 76 percent of the population would be voters 18 and over…

08:38…and that's what we expected to see in terms of the race and Hispanic origin distribution.

08:45And what I should point out here is that the tables and the graphs…

08:49…that I will be showing you, I'm showing race as non-Hispanic.

08:55In other words, there's no double-counting going on here, zero-sum gain.

09:01So this is what we expected, and this is what we found.

09:08Little high in the population, it came in slightly under at 309 million…

09:14…rounding of course; 76 percent are voters.

09:18And as it turns out, the race Hispanic origin distribution…

09:22…is virtually identical to what we had projected.

09:35What it shows us though, moving on, is one of the major trends…

09:40…that demographers have seen for quite some time.

09:43Whether all data users take a look at or not over the course of the decade I'm not too sure.

09:49But I can tell you that everybody dealing with redistricting now is going to be looking at it.

09:55One of the major trends, really, is the increasing diversity of the U.S. population.

10:00And that's one of the things that I wanted to focus on today.

10:05Now this is taking the same pie chart that I showed you before…

10:08…but here I'm showing you the proportion of change by race and Hispanic origin.

10:16The net gain for the U.S. was 27.3 million.

10:22And what you can see here is that well over half of that net gain is due to…

10:28…the increase in the Hispanic origin population. 56 percent.

10:35A distant second place, of course, would be the Asian Pacific Islander population.

10:42And what you see is the White non-Hispanic population contributing only eight percent…

10:50…of the net increase in the U.S. population.

10:54If you look at the growth rates, you can see the difference.

10:59Hispanic origin, that's 43 percent of the course of the decade.

11:05What you see is the White non-Hispanic population increased only 1.2 percent.

11:13That is not an annual number.

11:15That's for the 10 years.

11:19So the overall change in the total population was not even 10 percent for the entire decade.

11:26Why?

11:2764 percent of the population is White non-Hispanic or Anglo is a term we use in New Mexico.

11:37Basically pulls down the growth rate.

11:41Hispanic population of 43 percent but, as you can see, the Asian Pacific Islander…

11:46…the base is smaller but the rate of growth is almost the same at 42.7.

11:52Other rapidly growing groups, the multiracial population, of course.

11:58Almost a 30 percent increase over the course of the decade.

12:03And this is, of course, the first decade that we've had the opportunity to measure it.

12:07It was Census 2000 that introduced the possibility of reporting more than one race, so.

12:15The only thing you can conclude from looking at this and looking at the growth rates…

12:20…over the course of the past decade is that diversity is the key.

12:24That is the future.

12:25That's what's going on.

12:29Now if you want to measure diversity, what we did was we came up with an index…

12:33…after 2000 that we thought would help us out.

12:36In effect what this index does is it shows us the likelihood of two people from the same area…

12:44…drawn at random, being from different race ethnic groups.

12:49That's all it is.

12:51The values range from zero, which is absolutely no diversity…

12:56…everybody in the area, same race or ethnic group.

13:00It doesn't say anything about the composition…

13:02…it doesn't tell you which group, it just says they're all the same.

13:05To one hundred.

13:07At one hundred it means that the population of the area is equally divided…

13:12…among all the race ethnic groups.

13:15As you can see, the U.S. diversity index has definitely increased in the past 10 years.

13:21And for the record, yes, we estimated a diversity index of 61 before we saw the census.

13:29If you really want to see what's going on, though, it does help to drill down and look at…

13:34…this is county-level data, the diversity index in 2000.

13:38The first year.

13:39As you can see, the most diverse areas are definitely along the southern border and up the coastal areas.

13:50Points of immigration, no doubt.

13:54In 2000, there were four states where White non-Hispanics became the minority.

14:05New Mexico, California.

14:08For the purposes here we treat the District of Columbia as a state.

14:11Definitely the District, and Hawaii.

14:172010, another state joined the list…Texas.

14:23And we have a few other states that are definitely headed in that direction.

14:28If these trends continue, you can expect to see Florida, Georgia, Maryland, and Nevada join the list.

14:36The thing of it is, 15 states experienced a decline.

14:41Not necessarily in overall population, but in the White non-Hispanic definitely.

14:45While the Hispanic population actually doubled in nine states.

14:51What makes it interesting, though, is if you can look at the actual change.

14:58The areas that were the least diverse…back one…that's 2000.

15:07As you can see, the areas that are least diverse are up in New England, West Virginia, North Dakota.

15:152010, and there's your change.

15:21All aspects, all areas, the diversity of the population is definitely increasing.

15:28It is a clear trend, and if this hasn't convinced you, take a look at it by age.

15:37This particular graph shows you the change for the total population and the population 18 and over.

15:44The adult population.

15:47And the growth rates are quite a bit different.

15:51For most of the groups, the population 18 and over appears to be growing more quickly.

15:58This quite frankly is just an effect of aging, that's all it is.

16:02The population's getting older, deal with it.

16:04It's also reflecting immigration.

16:09Where you really see the contrast, though…

16:11…is when you look at the under 18 population compared to the over 18 population.

16:20And what we see here, plain and simple, is that in the under 18 population…

16:26…White non-Hispanic, black non-Hispanic, American Indian non-Hispanic…

16:33…the children are decreasing.

16:39Adults still growing, but children, not so much.

16:43Where you see the growth in the under 18 population and the children, multiracial, definitely.

16:53Asian Pacific Islander, Hispanic origin.

16:59The fastest growing group here is the multiracial group.

17:03It is the youngest.

17:05Of course, we've only been tracking it recently, but it is showing the fastest growth.

17:14Again, looking at the pie chart and looking at children.

17:18Population under 18 by race.

17:20Hispanic origin, this is what we see as of 2010.

17:27If you remember, there were five states now in which White non-Hispanic became a minority.

17:33But when you look to the children…

17:34…there are now 11 states in which White non-Hispanic has become the minority.

17:42The proportion, too, is different.

17:45Among children, it's only 54 percent.

17:50If you look at adults only, it's 67 percent.

17:56And the proportion of Hispanic children, it's almost one in four.

18:01Whereas, if you look at it for the adult population, it's only 14 percent.

18:06It's quite a bit different.

18:08If you want a glimpse of the future.

18:13On the one hand, we have current voters population 18-plus…

18:17…on the other hand we have future voters population under 18.

18:23This is what you're looking at in terms of the diversity of the population of voters in the future.

18:33Now this isn't really a projection.

18:35I'm not extrapolating births here or immigration trends.

18:40These people are already here, they've already been born, that's the future right there.

18:47Increasing diversity.

18:51Now it will change over time, to be sure.

18:55Because frankly, we are looking at changes in immigration rates and changes in fertility.

19:01That kind of goes without saying.

19:06Immigration has cut back.

19:09In fact, immigration from the United States has increased.

19:13It's entirely possible there are some early signs right now…

19:16…that we are now looking at net outflow in terms of migration streams.

19:23The diversity is there, though, as you can see.

19:26Birth rates are dropping, migration is changing.

19:30So whether or not it continues in the same vein will be interesting see over the course of the decade.

19:36I can tell you yes, that birth rates are dropping for all race origin groups.

19:42Not multiracial, we don't have that data yet.

19:45They actually introduced a change to the birth certificate in 2003.

19:50But as of 2008, only 30 states are actually reporting it…

19:55…so you don't really get a feel for multiracial fertility rates just yet.

20:01Right now though, they're pretty much down across the board.

20:04Seriously, if you want to see how the economy is doing…

20:11…forget the Index of Consumer Confidence, just look at the birth rates.

20:15Trust me, it's a great early warning signal.

20:18Okay, now, let's see if you've all been paying attention.

20:22Pop quiz time.

20:28You've seen the trends in diversity so far.

20:32When do you think that children in all areas…

20:35…well, let's just say for the U.S. as a whole, will become minority White non-Hispanic?

20:41Any guesses? 2016? Anybody? Too early, you're right. 2040? It's too late, you're right.

20:532023? A few votes for 2023. All right, 2032. It's moving quickly.

21:05On the rise, current trends, the decline in immigration and fertility rates change it.

21:11Okay, now we know the pop under 18 is moving more quickly.

21:15What about adults?

21:18And here we're looking at just when the children become minority, when do the adults follow suit?

21:24When can you expect that? Ten years later? No takers. Twenty? A few. Twenty-five.

21:38Anybody going for the long run?

21:42Another twenty years after the children.

21:46Okay. Now for the bonus round.

21:50When will the Hispanic population become the majority group?

21:55Any guesses? 20 years? Okay? 50 years? 30? 40? Ah, 40 has it.

22:14You have been paying attention.

22:15Now, either that or I've stacked the deck fairly well.

22:22Diversity, as I said, is one of the major trends.

22:26The other one that we're going to take a look at is housing.

22:31Let's face it, this was the predominant trend in the past decade.

22:36Fascinating stuff.

22:37Now you understand I'm still just working off of the redistricting data that we got.

22:42So I have total housing units, occupied housing units…

22:47…which the Census Bureau added this time to the redistricting data.

22:51Thank you, Census Bureau.

22:53And there are also a few profiles out there for higher levels, the U.S. and the states that I've looked at.

22:59But most of this data really is based upon dual housing units/occupied housing units.

23:07Now the trend in diversity has been going on for years.

23:10The change in the housing market, we are really looking at the past.

23:15And as you will see, the present and probably the future for the next few years.

23:23What Census 2010 is going to do is document both the rise and fall in the housing market.

23:30So I'm going to take you back a little bit to the point…

23:35…at which the housing market really started to change.

23:38And that would be in 2005.

23:41For anybody who has been reading our trend analysis annually…

23:45…I'm sure you all have…fascinated by demographic trend analysis.

23:502005 is when we started to call warning shots.

23:55The housing market was booming.

23:57Home value appreciation was incredible.

24:01But that's what started us wondering.

24:03We took a look at it and said, Really?

24:07Because the appreciation in home value was way exceeding the change in household income.

24:16And yet we were also seeing rates of home ownership increase…problem!

24:23…So we did take a look at the mortgage market.

24:26We did take a look at who was buying and where.

24:30And we did expect that appreciation was going to start to slow down.

24:34What we were saying was, there is a problem here.

24:38Home value cannot appreciate that rapidly that fast for that many years.

24:43And it had been going up.

24:45So the Federal Reserve Board, fortunately, saw the same thing…

24:49…and they had fired the first warning shot.

24:51Hello, we're going to increase interest rates.

24:55And yes, that was one of the accelerants in this trend, low interest rates.

25:01So, 2006, the question was, What's the future of the housing market?

25:07Mortgage rates were definitely rising now.

25:11The inventories were going up too.

25:14And it was at this point in time that construction really had contributed…

25:20…enormously to the housing inventory.

25:24It had kept the economy going.

25:26It was one of the few growth sectors in the economy at the time.

25:29We weren't adding that many jobs.

25:32However, like I said, the warning shots were there.

25:35And 2006 is when everybody started to see it fall apart, no doubt.

25:42Slower growth, definitely.

25:44New home sales were already down.

25:47However, as of 2006 we hadn't seen the economic fallout.

25:53We saw that in 2007.

25:56Then the question become, What just happened?

26:00And did somebody get the number of that bus?

26:04Mortgage rates were increasing, and at this point in time, we saw the side effect.

26:09The change in the housing market touched the economy.

26:13GDP dropped one percentage point.

26:17And when it's growing at three percent a year, one percentage point matters.

26:22And there was a problem.

26:23There was very serious problems indicated.

26:27In hindsight, yes, the National Bureau of Economic Research did say…

26:32…that the Great Recession started in December of 2007.

26:36This is based upon our updates, which we did a little bit earlier.

26:39And like I said, the warning signs were there.

26:42A lot of people assumed that we were headed into recession at this point in time.

26:47By 2008, however, what we saw was that the problem was much larger than anybody had anticipated.

26:56Where a lot of people were expecting it to start getting better, it was getting worse.

27:02More things were coming to light, it was more or less like…

27:06…watching Rupert Murdoch's newspapers fall apart.

27:11It became deeper, it became more endemic.

27:15It was touching every aspect of the economy.

27:18And what you had then was the housing market setting up a feedback group.

27:23Because at this point in time, you still had delinquencies, interest rates were going up…

27:28…there were foreclosures, and now people were losing their jobs which was adding to the foreclosures.

27:37So it became a vicious cycle, and it became problematic.

27:422008, in fact, was the first year that we actually saw home value decline.

27:49It has in the past, but it hadn't in 10 years, so it was something to see.

27:55What we also saw here, too, were that the inventories had continued to grow.

28:00It took the construction industry quite a while to actually slam on the breaks.

28:06And really, for about a year what we had were gross sectors…

28:10…in things like lawyers to get you out of real estate contracts.

28:17People who were paying attention in tracking foreclosures.

28:21Talk about depressing! But yes, those were the growth sectors.

28:26At this point in time, too, population growth slowed.

28:30Fertility rates were down.

28:31I mean, we didn't have the numbers then, but demographer, hello, studied them for years.

28:37I knew they were down. Everybody did.

28:40The population just flat-out quit moving.

28:43They didn't move into attractive areas, areas where home value depreciated.

28:49They didn't move out of areas that they had been leaving.

28:53Out-migration stopped, in-migration stopped.

28:56Everything slowed down.

29:00So by 2009, what people were saying was, What recovery?

29:07Technically the Great Recession did end in June of 2009.

29:12That's how the economists called it, 18 months long.

29:17The problem we have, of course, is the unemployment.

29:21It is what they call a lagging economic indicator.

29:24It is not the first sign of a recession.

29:28But it will certainly knock the steam out of recovery…

29:30…if you do not get unemployment down and job growth back up.

29:36It's really fairly straightforward.

29:41What we had on top of all of this, first the interest rates.

29:46When those went up, then we had a problem.

29:49A lot of people did go into foreclosure.

29:52It was creative financing.

29:55It was the imbalance between household income and home value.

30:01But when the housing market collapse touched the entire economy…

30:05…now you have unemployment driving foreclosures.

30:09What all of this did was to produce an enormous increase in vacancies…home vacancies.

30:17And that's the problem that we're looking at now.

30:21The vacancy rate in 2000 was 9 percent.

30:25That's fairly low.

30:28By 2008, it was up at 10.5 percent.

30:33So based upon all of this, what did we expect?

30:37We expected to find 132 million housing units, we expected the vacancy rate…

30:44…would be closer to 12 percent, we expected to find a little over 116 million households.

30:54In a nutshell, we expected an increase of 15.8 million in the housing inventory…

31:02…and an increase of 4.6 million in the number of vacant housing units.

31:07In other words, almost 30 percent of the total.

31:11We also expected that owner occupancy would decrease.

31:19It was 66.2 percent in 2000 and we knew it was going down.

31:24So what do we actually find?

31:31Fewer housing units if Census 2010 actually counted them all correctly.

31:38Vacancy rate a little bit lower than what we had anticipated.

31:43Number of households almost exactly what we were calling.

31:48And the rate of home ownership actually down below what we had.

31:52Hah! And they thought we were pessimistic.

31:57So that's what we found.

31:59So what was the net effect over the whole decade?

32:02The rise and fall of the housing market?

32:07This is what we expected in change based upon our 2010 updates that would be in the orange there.

32:15What we actually see according to the census is, of course, in the white.

32:24The changes were very close.

32:27Looks like we over estimated vacant units a bit but, again, that depends upon…

32:31…whether or not Census 2010 got it all right.

32:34Unfortunately, median home value is no longer available.

32:39We can't calibrate that.

32:41However, since that was one of the culprits behind the change in the housing market…

32:45…I had to throw it up there.

32:48To understand what these trends convey, though, you need to break it down geographically.

32:55What you see here is a disparity.

32:58There is a difference between population change and housing change.

33:03Now to a certain degree, that can be expected.

33:08But the regional differences do emphasize the gap…

33:12…particularly in the northeast and the Midwest as you can see.

33:16There are some reasons why you can see housing unit growth increase.

33:22If an area in 2000, for example, had a fairly good sized demand…

33:29…a good, robust housing market, they probably had a low vacancy rate and room for more building.

33:37The other thing you need to take into account with vacancies, of course is seasonal units.

33:41According to the census, a seasonal unit would be tabulated as vacant…

33:48…because it is not occupied all year round, usual place of residence.

33:53So. And there was definitely an increase in the number of seasonal units…

33:58…over the course of the decade.

34:01Some of what fueled boon was demographic change.

34:06You had the coming of age of Gen Y, and you had the Baby Boomers looking at it going…

34:11…Oh, my gosh, look at the increase in home value.

34:15I'll put my retirement money in real estate.

34:19So yes, they did.

34:21So you had investment opportunities…

34:23…there were second homes, there were demographic changes that affected this as well.

34:30And that has to do with some of the discrepancies.

34:32So let's break it down a little bit more.

34:36There you see the change in vacant units versus total housing units.

34:41Yipes. There definitely is a gap there.

34:48But can we account for it?

34:52Here we're looking at seasonal housing units as well.

34:58There was quite a bit of a growth market there.

35:02But what you can see from this is that the seasonal vacants do not account…

35:08…for the incredible growth of vacant housing units.

35:13In fact, the increase in seasonal units represents only 23 percent of the total increase in vacant units.

35:23That's not what was going on here.

35:26What's going here is over-building, plain and simple.

35:32And there you have it.

35:33The past decade, the current problem, and the next few years.

35:40Vacant units are still sitting out there.

35:42There is a huge inventory sitting out there of homes.

35:47And home value isn't going to change.

35:49Things aren't going to change until that inventory comes down a little bit.

35:54Ironically, there are still some growth markets out there.

35:58They're for rentals.

36:01Some cities are now coming up with shortage in their rental housing market…

36:06…but overall for single family homes and owner-occupied homes, no.

36:14Until the inventory comes down, there's your problem.

36:18The housing unit growth way exceeded population demand.

36:23And again, these trends do become clearer when you take it down.

36:27There we have Census 2000, those are the vacancy rates.

36:33The darker areas that you see on this map are highlighting primarily seasonal areas, really.

36:41If you look at the upper portion of Michigan, if you look at Colorado…

36:47…you practically see the ridgeline of the Rockies right there.

36:52Seasonal units for the most part.

36:54Areas that are very light here, where you have a very low vacancy rate.

36:59Could be one of two things.

37:00Either very little activity at the time or an area in which the vacancy rate…

37:06…had grown too low because of higher demand.

37:12There's the same map in 2010.

37:16A little bit darker, a little bit different.

37:21And yes, it is showing areas of growth from 2000 to 2010.

37:27Where you can really see it, though, is when you look at the change…

37:32…2000 to 2010 the increase in vacancies.

37:36At this point in time a lot of your seasonal areas have dropped off the map.

37:41What you're looking at here are housing markets that overheated and over built.

37:50Quite simply, here in the darker areas the housing activity exceeded…

37:54…either demand or they ability to pay the mortgage.

38:01And this is going to dampen activity in the near future.

38:04Until this inventory comes down, it is going to affect housing change in the near future.

38:11Because the bottom line is this, this is a maturing society.

38:16Growth rates are coming down.

38:19Fertility rates are coming down.

38:21Birth rates are down right now.

38:26National trends, of course, don't affect every market equally.

38:32There's your population change.

38:36You can see areas of activity on there, to be sure, in the south, along the coast, and the west.

38:43But as you can see, for most of the country, there isn't that much in the way of population change.

38:50Variation in local markets, to be sure.

38:54But hopefully this has shown you a little bit about…

38:57…how these national trends can affect your local markets.

39:03So finally, let's take a look at geographic change.

39:09Very important if you want to compare 2000 to 2010.

39:14Keep in mind, please, all areas are subject to change.

39:19The Census Bureau got very busy in the past decade, and you will see all areas changing.

39:28They've adjusted state lines, they've adjusted county lines.

39:32There are differences here.

39:37The statistical areas, oh for Pete's sake, those are always subject to change.

39:41You know that.

39:42Tracts tends to be fairly constant.

39:44Block groups, not so much.

39:48CDP census designated places.

39:51Ah, they're not incorporated so technically they're statistical.

39:56They come and go with every census to there's always change there.

40:02Metropolitan areas will not change just yet.

40:05But that's coming.

40:06And of course, all of the favorite areas, at least judging by what users call for on our website ZIP Codes…

40:16…polygons, that sort of a thing, they are all subject to change as well.

40:21Because the underlying geography has changed.

40:27So this little table shows you change in inventory, inventory only.

40:38Yes, there are a couple new counties in Alaska.

40:40Alaska does tend to be rather casual with their counties.

40:45Tracts, yes. Block groups…blocks.

40:48The Census Bureau got real busy with the water blocks.

40:51A lot of those are water blocks.

40:53But as you can see, and this is just changing inventory, this isn't change in the boundaries of these places.

41:01And you need to be careful if you're going in to do a comparison.

41:09Quite simply, you can have an area that has exactly the same geocode, same everything…

41:18…and yet the boundary has changed.

41:21You really do need to pay attention to what you're looking at.

41:28So, we're to expect these? Yes.

41:30Because the underlying blocks and block groups have changed.

41:34If you look at a new ZIP Code, if you run a new polygon, a new circle…

41:39…if you're a favorite site, your numbers will be different.

41:45What you need to bridge the two is a correspondence file.

41:512000-2010.

41:53We're building that right now.

41:55We're using boundary files, we're using coordinates, that's how we know that there are so many changes.

42:01We are also using the Census Bureau's tabulation block to tabulation block correspondence file.

42:07Basically everything we can get our hands on.

42:11Why do you need a correspondence file?

42:13This is a great example.

42:16This little block group is shown in black in one corner.

42:21That's your 2000 boundary.

42:26In Cyan there, the larger boundary, that's the 2010.

42:32It's a little block group in California.

42:36It's in the same neighborhood, it has exactly the same geocode.

42:422010 and 2000.

42:44But as you can see, it is not the same block group.

42:50Don't go by the geocodes.

42:53You need a correspondence file if you're going to do the comparison.

42:57Just be careful.

42:58Like I said, the Census Bureau did realign a lot of the boundaries.

43:02They invested a lot in it, and we see changes.

43:06We have seen blocks that were assigned to one county now being assigned to a different county.

43:12So yeah, there was a lot of realignment of blocks and really yes, you do need to pay attention to it.

43:19So, what are our coming attractions?

43:23New Congressional Districts, the point of the whole census…

43:26…will be introduced in 2013 with the 113th Congress.

43:31They're busy redoing the redistricting…they're redistricting right now.

43:35Revised metropolitan areas for those of you who like micropolitan, metropolitan.

43:41Basically the core base statistical areas.

43:44Those will be realigned in 2013 as well.

43:49The release of SF1 will be done in August.

43:55And what's going on right now is the CQR count question resolution program.

44:01This is where local communities have the opportunity to challenge their Census 2010 counts.

44:07And yes, there may be changes.

44:11That will be forthcoming.

44:13So we have my team, the data development team.

44:18We do appreciate your interest in demographic data and Census 2010.