00:01Welcome to Census 2010 and the Data User
00:03I'm Lynn Wombold with Esri.
00:05I'm a demographer, and the other geographers allow me to sit in once in awhile.
00:15This morning we're gong to talk about Census 2010…
00:18…which is the benchmark of all demographic data for the next decade.
00:24Before we get too far into this, I'd like to tell you yes, I have a lot of tables…
00:29…and facts and figures and things in here.
00:32These presentations are going to be available online.
00:36There will be a conference proceedings CD, but you will also be able to get this online.
00:41So don't make yourselves crazy trying to copy down all the facts and figures.
00:45You'll be able to get it later.
00:48Okay, let's get started here.
00:51When last we met, last year, we were talking about what we expected to happen with Census 2010.
00:58This time we can talk about what's actually going…
01:02…what has happened and what is still happening with Census 2010.
01:06So I'm going to speak a little bit about what's new…
01:09…and we're going to take a look at the counts themselves.
01:13What we expected to find, what we've actually found…
01:17…and, of course, the change over the past ten years.
01:21The wonderful thing about a decennial census is that it gives you pause…
01:25…to turn and see some of the longer term trends.
01:30Sort of seeing the forest as opposed to just looking at the trees.
01:34You see the big picture.
01:36Demographic change tend not to be sudden.
01:39It's not economic change, come on.
01:42A lot of the trends occur over a very long period of time.
01:45And if you're not a demographer, you can miss them.
01:48So I'm here to help you see what we think are the big trends that we've seen so far.
01:53And of course, what would we be without looking at geographic change, eh?
01:59So. First of all, what to expect.
02:06The data that's been released so far, we've got first the reapportionment counts.
02:12We have gotten the redistricting data.
02:16And those are the main reasons for the census.
02:18We could actually just pretty much stop right now.
02:21The apportionment counts are what you need.
02:23That's your constitutional mandate for the census.
02:27And the redistricting data is all released on time.
02:32That's what a lot of the presentation this morning will be about, so…
02:40The reapportionment counts we got actually 10 days early.
02:45They're due by December 31st of the census year…
02:47…we picked them up 10 days early, thank you Census Bureau.
02:52And that's what's going on right now, is reapportioning the House of Representatives.
02:59Oh, my gosh.
03:03I see what the problem is. My apologies. This is last year's presentation.
03:11This is where we are in terms of what's new with this census.
03:18Right now we have the apportionment counts, we have the redistricting data.
03:22Summary file one is in progress.
03:24As of about a week ago, I think we had 12 states there.
03:29So what's new with this particular census…
03:31…just you haven't been paying attention, weren't here last year, whatever.
03:36When they finish with releasing Summary file one…
03:40…state by state, that's pretty much going to be it.
03:44There is no sample beta with this particular census.
03:47We're done now.
03:48Short form only, there you go.
03:51So. It also happens to be the most expensive census to date.
03:56Not surprising there.
03:58It did come in under budget.
04:00According to the bureau, everything came in under budget, so we're good.
04:04But 14.5 billion by comparison in 2000, it was 4.5 billion.
04:14So you're looking at an increase, either total or per capita of about 200 percent.
04:21That's more or less how it breaks down over the past hundred years or so, quite an increase.
04:27So when you look at the difference, the decrease in the number of questions and the amount of data…
04:33…the increase in the cost, I think if you put the two trends together…
04:38…maybe they could just text it to us the next time and save a little bit of money.
04:43Anyhow, let's take a look at the counts and what we've got going on here.
04:55Reapportionment counts, like I said, we got early.
04:58The redistricting counts we also got a little bit early.
05:01Those are due out, again, by federal law, Public Law 94171.
05:06Have to be released within one year of the census and so they were.
05:10The Census Bureau has been releasing a little bit earlier.
05:14So question of the day is, What did we expect?
05:20For reapportionment, these numbers were put together by Kim Brace of Election Data Services…
05:27…but they were based upon our state population totals.
05:32And prior to receiving the accounts, it was last fall that they put this out…
05:36…this is what they expected to see in terms of reapportionment of the House of Representatives.
05:42As you can see, quite a gain in Texas.
05:47Quite a gain across the south actually.
05:50Loss in the Midwest, loss in the northeast, and the west picking up a few states.
05:57The trick with Congressional reapportionment, though, is that it is not just total population.
06:03By law they also have to take into account federal military…
06:08…and civilian employees overseas and their dependants.
06:12At least that can be allocated back to a state.
06:15So the formula is a bit more complex than just state resident population totals.
06:21So this is what we expected to see.
06:26This is what we see.
06:29This is exactly what happened.
06:30Kim Brace got the numbers exactly right.
06:34If you look at the changes by region, that's what you get.
06:37A net gain of seven in the south, the west picked up four seats, and the losses, of course…
06:45…continue to be concentrated primarily in the northeast.
06:48They lost five seats there, and the Midwest, they lost six seats.
06:53I should point out, though, among the states that are losing seats…
07:00…they didn't really lose population except for Michigan.
07:02That was the only state that actually had a decline in population.
07:07The loss of a seat has more to do with population size…
07:11…relative to the other states than it does to loss or gain of the population.
07:18The other thing that was projected accurately…
07:21…was that they thought maybe North Carolina was close to picking up one more seat.
07:28As it turns out, the last seat in the House was assigned to Minnesota.
07:33North Carolina was close primarily because of the military overseas population…
07:38…that actually would be assigned back to North Carolina.
07:43They picked up the last seat in 2000, barely edging out Utah.
07:47So I guess it was Utah's turn this time.
07:50Maybe in 2020 they will get another one.
07:53But that's what we see in terms of reapportionment.
07:57Right now what you see is virtually every state and local entity now dealing with redistricting data.
08:05We don't really do redistricting, my team doesn't…
08:08…but what I'm going to show you is what we have seen in the data so far…
08:13…that will certainly affect them.
08:15Now a year ago, we told you this is more or less what we expected to find…
08:19…for population counts from 2010 Census.
08:24We expected the total pop would be around 310 million as of April 1 based upon our updates.
08:31We expected that almost 76 percent of the population would be voters 18 and over…
08:38…and that's what we expected to see in terms of the race and Hispanic origin distribution.
08:45And what I should point out here is that the tables and the graphs…
08:49…that I will be showing you, I'm showing race as non-Hispanic.
08:55In other words, there's no double-counting going on here, zero-sum gain.
09:01So this is what we expected, and this is what we found.
09:08Little high in the population, it came in slightly under at 309 million…
09:14…rounding of course; 76 percent are voters.
09:18And as it turns out, the race Hispanic origin distribution…
09:22…is virtually identical to what we had projected.
09:35What it shows us though, moving on, is one of the major trends…
09:40…that demographers have seen for quite some time.
09:43Whether all data users take a look at or not over the course of the decade I'm not too sure.
09:49But I can tell you that everybody dealing with redistricting now is going to be looking at it.
09:55One of the major trends, really, is the increasing diversity of the U.S. population.
10:00And that's one of the things that I wanted to focus on today.
10:05Now this is taking the same pie chart that I showed you before…
10:08…but here I'm showing you the proportion of change by race and Hispanic origin.
10:16The net gain for the U.S. was 27.3 million.
10:22And what you can see here is that well over half of that net gain is due to…
10:28…the increase in the Hispanic origin population. 56 percent.
10:35A distant second place, of course, would be the Asian Pacific Islander population.
10:42And what you see is the White non-Hispanic population contributing only eight percent…
10:50…of the net increase in the U.S. population.
10:54If you look at the growth rates, you can see the difference.
10:59Hispanic origin, that's 43 percent of the course of the decade.
11:05What you see is the White non-Hispanic population increased only 1.2 percent.
11:13That is not an annual number.
11:15That's for the 10 years.
11:19So the overall change in the total population was not even 10 percent for the entire decade.
11:2764 percent of the population is White non-Hispanic or Anglo is a term we use in New Mexico.
11:37Basically pulls down the growth rate.
11:41Hispanic population of 43 percent but, as you can see, the Asian Pacific Islander…
11:46…the base is smaller but the rate of growth is almost the same at 42.7.
11:52Other rapidly growing groups, the multiracial population, of course.
11:58Almost a 30 percent increase over the course of the decade.
12:03And this is, of course, the first decade that we've had the opportunity to measure it.
12:07It was Census 2000 that introduced the possibility of reporting more than one race, so.
12:15The only thing you can conclude from looking at this and looking at the growth rates…
12:20…over the course of the past decade is that diversity is the key.
12:24That is the future.
12:25That's what's going on.
12:29Now if you want to measure diversity, what we did was we came up with an index…
12:33…after 2000 that we thought would help us out.
12:36In effect what this index does is it shows us the likelihood of two people from the same area…
12:44…drawn at random, being from different race ethnic groups.
12:49That's all it is.
12:51The values range from zero, which is absolutely no diversity…
12:56…everybody in the area, same race or ethnic group.
13:00It doesn't say anything about the composition…
13:02…it doesn't tell you which group, it just says they're all the same.
13:05To one hundred.
13:07At one hundred it means that the population of the area is equally divided…
13:12…among all the race ethnic groups.
13:15As you can see, the U.S. diversity index has definitely increased in the past 10 years.
13:21And for the record, yes, we estimated a diversity index of 61 before we saw the census.
13:29If you really want to see what's going on, though, it does help to drill down and look at…
13:34…this is county-level data, the diversity index in 2000.
13:38The first year.
13:39As you can see, the most diverse areas are definitely along the southern border and up the coastal areas.
13:50Points of immigration, no doubt.
13:54In 2000, there were four states where White non-Hispanics became the minority.
14:05New Mexico, California.
14:08For the purposes here we treat the District of Columbia as a state.
14:11Definitely the District, and Hawaii.
14:172010, another state joined the list…Texas.
14:23And we have a few other states that are definitely headed in that direction.
14:28If these trends continue, you can expect to see Florida, Georgia, Maryland, and Nevada join the list.
14:36The thing of it is, 15 states experienced a decline.
14:41Not necessarily in overall population, but in the White non-Hispanic definitely.
14:45While the Hispanic population actually doubled in nine states.
14:51What makes it interesting, though, is if you can look at the actual change.
14:58The areas that were the least diverse…back one…that's 2000.
15:07As you can see, the areas that are least diverse are up in New England, West Virginia, North Dakota.
15:152010, and there's your change.
15:21All aspects, all areas, the diversity of the population is definitely increasing.
15:28It is a clear trend, and if this hasn't convinced you, take a look at it by age.
15:37This particular graph shows you the change for the total population and the population 18 and over.
15:44The adult population.
15:47And the growth rates are quite a bit different.
15:51For most of the groups, the population 18 and over appears to be growing more quickly.
15:58This quite frankly is just an effect of aging, that's all it is.
16:02The population's getting older, deal with it.
16:04It's also reflecting immigration.
16:09Where you really see the contrast, though…
16:11…is when you look at the under 18 population compared to the over 18 population.
16:20And what we see here, plain and simple, is that in the under 18 population…
16:26…White non-Hispanic, black non-Hispanic, American Indian non-Hispanic…
16:33…the children are decreasing.
16:39Adults still growing, but children, not so much.
16:43Where you see the growth in the under 18 population and the children, multiracial, definitely.
16:53Asian Pacific Islander, Hispanic origin.
16:59The fastest growing group here is the multiracial group.
17:03It is the youngest.
17:05Of course, we've only been tracking it recently, but it is showing the fastest growth.
17:14Again, looking at the pie chart and looking at children.
17:18Population under 18 by race.
17:20Hispanic origin, this is what we see as of 2010.
17:27If you remember, there were five states now in which White non-Hispanic became a minority.
17:33But when you look to the children…
17:34…there are now 11 states in which White non-Hispanic has become the minority.
17:42The proportion, too, is different.
17:45Among children, it's only 54 percent.
17:50If you look at adults only, it's 67 percent.
17:56And the proportion of Hispanic children, it's almost one in four.
18:01Whereas, if you look at it for the adult population, it's only 14 percent.
18:06It's quite a bit different.
18:08If you want a glimpse of the future.
18:13On the one hand, we have current voters population 18-plus…
18:17…on the other hand we have future voters population under 18.
18:23This is what you're looking at in terms of the diversity of the population of voters in the future.
18:33Now this isn't really a projection.
18:35I'm not extrapolating births here or immigration trends.
18:40These people are already here, they've already been born, that's the future right there.
18:51Now it will change over time, to be sure.
18:55Because frankly, we are looking at changes in immigration rates and changes in fertility.
19:01That kind of goes without saying.
19:06Immigration has cut back.
19:09In fact, immigration from the United States has increased.
19:13It's entirely possible there are some early signs right now…
19:16…that we are now looking at net outflow in terms of migration streams.
19:23The diversity is there, though, as you can see.
19:26Birth rates are dropping, migration is changing.
19:30So whether or not it continues in the same vein will be interesting see over the course of the decade.
19:36I can tell you yes, that birth rates are dropping for all race origin groups.
19:42Not multiracial, we don't have that data yet.
19:45They actually introduced a change to the birth certificate in 2003.
19:50But as of 2008, only 30 states are actually reporting it…
19:55…so you don't really get a feel for multiracial fertility rates just yet.
20:01Right now though, they're pretty much down across the board.
20:04Seriously, if you want to see how the economy is doing…
20:11…forget the Index of Consumer Confidence, just look at the birth rates.
20:15Trust me, it's a great early warning signal.
20:18Okay, now, let's see if you've all been paying attention.
20:22Pop quiz time.
20:28You've seen the trends in diversity so far.
20:32When do you think that children in all areas…
20:35…well, let's just say for the U.S. as a whole, will become minority White non-Hispanic?
20:41Any guesses? 2016? Anybody? Too early, you're right. 2040? It's too late, you're right.
20:532023? A few votes for 2023. All right, 2032. It's moving quickly.
21:05On the rise, current trends, the decline in immigration and fertility rates change it.
21:11Okay, now we know the pop under 18 is moving more quickly.
21:15What about adults?
21:18And here we're looking at just when the children become minority, when do the adults follow suit?
21:24When can you expect that? Ten years later? No takers. Twenty? A few. Twenty-five.
21:38Anybody going for the long run?
21:42Another twenty years after the children.
21:46Okay. Now for the bonus round.
21:50When will the Hispanic population become the majority group?
21:55Any guesses? 20 years? Okay? 50 years? 30? 40? Ah, 40 has it.
22:14You have been paying attention.
22:15Now, either that or I've stacked the deck fairly well.
22:22Diversity, as I said, is one of the major trends.
22:26The other one that we're going to take a look at is housing.
22:31Let's face it, this was the predominant trend in the past decade.
22:37Now you understand I'm still just working off of the redistricting data that we got.
22:42So I have total housing units, occupied housing units…
22:47…which the Census Bureau added this time to the redistricting data.
22:51Thank you, Census Bureau.
22:53And there are also a few profiles out there for higher levels, the U.S. and the states that I've looked at.
22:59But most of this data really is based upon dual housing units/occupied housing units.
23:07Now the trend in diversity has been going on for years.
23:10The change in the housing market, we are really looking at the past.
23:15And as you will see, the present and probably the future for the next few years.
23:23What Census 2010 is going to do is document both the rise and fall in the housing market.
23:30So I'm going to take you back a little bit to the point…
23:35…at which the housing market really started to change.
23:38And that would be in 2005.
23:41For anybody who has been reading our trend analysis annually…
23:45…I'm sure you all have…fascinated by demographic trend analysis.
23:502005 is when we started to call warning shots.
23:55The housing market was booming.
23:57Home value appreciation was incredible.
24:01But that's what started us wondering.
24:03We took a look at it and said, Really?
24:07Because the appreciation in home value was way exceeding the change in household income.
24:16And yet we were also seeing rates of home ownership increase…problem!
24:23…So we did take a look at the mortgage market.
24:26We did take a look at who was buying and where.
24:30And we did expect that appreciation was going to start to slow down.
24:34What we were saying was, there is a problem here.
24:38Home value cannot appreciate that rapidly that fast for that many years.
24:43And it had been going up.
24:45So the Federal Reserve Board, fortunately, saw the same thing…
24:49…and they had fired the first warning shot.
24:51Hello, we're going to increase interest rates.
24:55And yes, that was one of the accelerants in this trend, low interest rates.
25:01So, 2006, the question was, What's the future of the housing market?
25:07Mortgage rates were definitely rising now.
25:11The inventories were going up too.
25:14And it was at this point in time that construction really had contributed…
25:20…enormously to the housing inventory.
25:24It had kept the economy going.
25:26It was one of the few growth sectors in the economy at the time.
25:29We weren't adding that many jobs.
25:32However, like I said, the warning shots were there.
25:35And 2006 is when everybody started to see it fall apart, no doubt.
25:42Slower growth, definitely.
25:44New home sales were already down.
25:47However, as of 2006 we hadn't seen the economic fallout.
25:53We saw that in 2007.
25:56Then the question become, What just happened?
26:00And did somebody get the number of that bus?
26:04Mortgage rates were increasing, and at this point in time, we saw the side effect.
26:09The change in the housing market touched the economy.
26:13GDP dropped one percentage point.
26:17And when it's growing at three percent a year, one percentage point matters.
26:22And there was a problem.
26:23There was very serious problems indicated.
26:27In hindsight, yes, the National Bureau of Economic Research did say…
26:32…that the Great Recession started in December of 2007.
26:36This is based upon our updates, which we did a little bit earlier.
26:39And like I said, the warning signs were there.
26:42A lot of people assumed that we were headed into recession at this point in time.
26:47By 2008, however, what we saw was that the problem was much larger than anybody had anticipated.
26:56Where a lot of people were expecting it to start getting better, it was getting worse.
27:02More things were coming to light, it was more or less like…
27:06…watching Rupert Murdoch's newspapers fall apart.
27:11It became deeper, it became more endemic.
27:15It was touching every aspect of the economy.
27:18And what you had then was the housing market setting up a feedback group.
27:23Because at this point in time, you still had delinquencies, interest rates were going up…
27:28…there were foreclosures, and now people were losing their jobs which was adding to the foreclosures.
27:37So it became a vicious cycle, and it became problematic.
27:422008, in fact, was the first year that we actually saw home value decline.
27:49It has in the past, but it hadn't in 10 years, so it was something to see.
27:55What we also saw here, too, were that the inventories had continued to grow.
28:00It took the construction industry quite a while to actually slam on the breaks.
28:06And really, for about a year what we had were gross sectors…
28:10…in things like lawyers to get you out of real estate contracts.
28:17People who were paying attention in tracking foreclosures.
28:21Talk about depressing! But yes, those were the growth sectors.
28:26At this point in time, too, population growth slowed.
28:30Fertility rates were down.
28:31I mean, we didn't have the numbers then, but demographer, hello, studied them for years.
28:37I knew they were down. Everybody did.
28:40The population just flat-out quit moving.
28:43They didn't move into attractive areas, areas where home value depreciated.
28:49They didn't move out of areas that they had been leaving.
28:53Out-migration stopped, in-migration stopped.
28:56Everything slowed down.
29:00So by 2009, what people were saying was, What recovery?
29:07Technically the Great Recession did end in June of 2009.
29:12That's how the economists called it, 18 months long.
29:17The problem we have, of course, is the unemployment.
29:21It is what they call a lagging economic indicator.
29:24It is not the first sign of a recession.
29:28But it will certainly knock the steam out of recovery…
29:30…if you do not get unemployment down and job growth back up.
29:36It's really fairly straightforward.
29:41What we had on top of all of this, first the interest rates.
29:46When those went up, then we had a problem.
29:49A lot of people did go into foreclosure.
29:52It was creative financing.
29:55It was the imbalance between household income and home value.
30:01But when the housing market collapse touched the entire economy…
30:05…now you have unemployment driving foreclosures.
30:09What all of this did was to produce an enormous increase in vacancies…home vacancies.
30:17And that's the problem that we're looking at now.
30:21The vacancy rate in 2000 was 9 percent.
30:25That's fairly low.
30:28By 2008, it was up at 10.5 percent.
30:33So based upon all of this, what did we expect?
30:37We expected to find 132 million housing units, we expected the vacancy rate…
30:44…would be closer to 12 percent, we expected to find a little over 116 million households.
30:54In a nutshell, we expected an increase of 15.8 million in the housing inventory…
31:02…and an increase of 4.6 million in the number of vacant housing units.
31:07In other words, almost 30 percent of the total.
31:11We also expected that owner occupancy would decrease.
31:19It was 66.2 percent in 2000 and we knew it was going down.
31:24So what do we actually find?
31:31Fewer housing units if Census 2010 actually counted them all correctly.
31:38Vacancy rate a little bit lower than what we had anticipated.
31:43Number of households almost exactly what we were calling.
31:48And the rate of home ownership actually down below what we had.
31:52Hah! And they thought we were pessimistic.
31:57So that's what we found.
31:59So what was the net effect over the whole decade?
32:02The rise and fall of the housing market?
32:07This is what we expected in change based upon our 2010 updates that would be in the orange there.
32:15What we actually see according to the census is, of course, in the white.
32:24The changes were very close.
32:27Looks like we over estimated vacant units a bit but, again, that depends upon…
32:31…whether or not Census 2010 got it all right.
32:34Unfortunately, median home value is no longer available.
32:39We can't calibrate that.
32:41However, since that was one of the culprits behind the change in the housing market…
32:45…I had to throw it up there.
32:48To understand what these trends convey, though, you need to break it down geographically.
32:55What you see here is a disparity.
32:58There is a difference between population change and housing change.
33:03Now to a certain degree, that can be expected.
33:08But the regional differences do emphasize the gap…
33:12…particularly in the northeast and the Midwest as you can see.
33:16There are some reasons why you can see housing unit growth increase.
33:22If an area in 2000, for example, had a fairly good sized demand…
33:29…a good, robust housing market, they probably had a low vacancy rate and room for more building.
33:37The other thing you need to take into account with vacancies, of course is seasonal units.
33:41According to the census, a seasonal unit would be tabulated as vacant…
33:48…because it is not occupied all year round, usual place of residence.
33:53So. And there was definitely an increase in the number of seasonal units…
33:58…over the course of the decade.
34:01Some of what fueled boon was demographic change.
34:06You had the coming of age of Gen Y, and you had the Baby Boomers looking at it going…
34:11…Oh, my gosh, look at the increase in home value.
34:15I'll put my retirement money in real estate.
34:19So yes, they did.
34:21So you had investment opportunities…
34:23…there were second homes, there were demographic changes that affected this as well.
34:30And that has to do with some of the discrepancies.
34:32So let's break it down a little bit more.
34:36There you see the change in vacant units versus total housing units.
34:41Yipes. There definitely is a gap there.
34:48But can we account for it?
34:52Here we're looking at seasonal housing units as well.
34:58There was quite a bit of a growth market there.
35:02But what you can see from this is that the seasonal vacants do not account…
35:08…for the incredible growth of vacant housing units.
35:13In fact, the increase in seasonal units represents only 23 percent of the total increase in vacant units.
35:23That's not what was going on here.
35:26What's going here is over-building, plain and simple.
35:32And there you have it.
35:33The past decade, the current problem, and the next few years.
35:40Vacant units are still sitting out there.
35:42There is a huge inventory sitting out there of homes.
35:47And home value isn't going to change.
35:49Things aren't going to change until that inventory comes down a little bit.
35:54Ironically, there are still some growth markets out there.
35:58They're for rentals.
36:01Some cities are now coming up with shortage in their rental housing market…
36:06…but overall for single family homes and owner-occupied homes, no.
36:14Until the inventory comes down, there's your problem.
36:18The housing unit growth way exceeded population demand.
36:23And again, these trends do become clearer when you take it down.
36:27There we have Census 2000, those are the vacancy rates.
36:33The darker areas that you see on this map are highlighting primarily seasonal areas, really.
36:41If you look at the upper portion of Michigan, if you look at Colorado…
36:47…you practically see the ridgeline of the Rockies right there.
36:52Seasonal units for the most part.
36:54Areas that are very light here, where you have a very low vacancy rate.
36:59Could be one of two things.
37:00Either very little activity at the time or an area in which the vacancy rate…
37:06…had grown too low because of higher demand.
37:12There's the same map in 2010.
37:16A little bit darker, a little bit different.
37:21And yes, it is showing areas of growth from 2000 to 2010.
37:27Where you can really see it, though, is when you look at the change…
37:32…2000 to 2010 the increase in vacancies.
37:36At this point in time a lot of your seasonal areas have dropped off the map.
37:41What you're looking at here are housing markets that overheated and over built.
37:50Quite simply, here in the darker areas the housing activity exceeded…
37:54…either demand or they ability to pay the mortgage.
38:01And this is going to dampen activity in the near future.
38:04Until this inventory comes down, it is going to affect housing change in the near future.
38:11Because the bottom line is this, this is a maturing society.
38:16Growth rates are coming down.
38:19Fertility rates are coming down.
38:21Birth rates are down right now.
38:26National trends, of course, don't affect every market equally.
38:32There's your population change.
38:36You can see areas of activity on there, to be sure, in the south, along the coast, and the west.
38:43But as you can see, for most of the country, there isn't that much in the way of population change.
38:50Variation in local markets, to be sure.
38:54But hopefully this has shown you a little bit about…
38:57…how these national trends can affect your local markets.
39:03So finally, let's take a look at geographic change.
39:09Very important if you want to compare 2000 to 2010.
39:14Keep in mind, please, all areas are subject to change.
39:19The Census Bureau got very busy in the past decade, and you will see all areas changing.
39:28They've adjusted state lines, they've adjusted county lines.
39:32There are differences here.
39:37The statistical areas, oh for Pete's sake, those are always subject to change.
39:41You know that.
39:42Tracts tends to be fairly constant.
39:44Block groups, not so much.
39:48CDP census designated places.
39:51Ah, they're not incorporated so technically they're statistical.
39:56They come and go with every census to there's always change there.
40:02Metropolitan areas will not change just yet.
40:05But that's coming.
40:06And of course, all of the favorite areas, at least judging by what users call for on our website ZIP Codes…
40:16…polygons, that sort of a thing, they are all subject to change as well.
40:21Because the underlying geography has changed.
40:27So this little table shows you change in inventory, inventory only.
40:38Yes, there are a couple new counties in Alaska.
40:40Alaska does tend to be rather casual with their counties.
40:45Tracts, yes. Block groups…blocks.
40:48The Census Bureau got real busy with the water blocks.
40:51A lot of those are water blocks.
40:53But as you can see, and this is just changing inventory, this isn't change in the boundaries of these places.
41:01And you need to be careful if you're going in to do a comparison.
41:09Quite simply, you can have an area that has exactly the same geocode, same everything…
41:18…and yet the boundary has changed.
41:21You really do need to pay attention to what you're looking at.
41:28So, we're to expect these? Yes.
41:30Because the underlying blocks and block groups have changed.
41:34If you look at a new ZIP Code, if you run a new polygon, a new circle…
41:39…if you're a favorite site, your numbers will be different.
41:45What you need to bridge the two is a correspondence file.
41:53We're building that right now.
41:55We're using boundary files, we're using coordinates, that's how we know that there are so many changes.
42:01We are also using the Census Bureau's tabulation block to tabulation block correspondence file.
42:07Basically everything we can get our hands on.
42:11Why do you need a correspondence file?
42:13This is a great example.
42:16This little block group is shown in black in one corner.
42:21That's your 2000 boundary.
42:26In Cyan there, the larger boundary, that's the 2010.
42:32It's a little block group in California.
42:36It's in the same neighborhood, it has exactly the same geocode.
42:422010 and 2000.
42:44But as you can see, it is not the same block group.
42:50Don't go by the geocodes.
42:53You need a correspondence file if you're going to do the comparison.
42:57Just be careful.
42:58Like I said, the Census Bureau did realign a lot of the boundaries.
43:02They invested a lot in it, and we see changes.
43:06We have seen blocks that were assigned to one county now being assigned to a different county.
43:12So yeah, there was a lot of realignment of blocks and really yes, you do need to pay attention to it.
43:19So, what are our coming attractions?
43:23New Congressional Districts, the point of the whole census…
43:26…will be introduced in 2013 with the 113th Congress.
43:31They're busy redoing the redistricting…they're redistricting right now.
43:35Revised metropolitan areas for those of you who like micropolitan, metropolitan.
43:41Basically the core base statistical areas.
43:44Those will be realigned in 2013 as well.
43:49The release of SF1 will be done in August.
43:55And what's going on right now is the CQR count question resolution program.
44:01This is where local communities have the opportunity to challenge their Census 2010 counts.
44:07And yes, there may be changes.
44:11That will be forthcoming.
44:13So we have my team, the data development team.
44:18We do appreciate your interest in demographic data and Census 2010.
Census 2010 and the Data User
Lynn Wombold addresses what we can learn from the new census, including changes in the population and geographic base.
- Recorded: Jul 13th, 2011
- Runtime: 44:24
- Views: 62534
- Published: Sep 6th, 2011
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