00:01What I'd like to present, was asked today to present an idea or concept we've been working on.
00:05And I was kidding with Carl the last time I saw him at a presentation. I love this, at least this time it's 35 minutes…
00:12…but I love this thing where they say, You have 15 minutes; tell us about your life's work.
00:16Okay, we'll give it a shot, okay. So the…we've been working on this for a good while.
00:22Peggy Carr is one of the most creative people I think I've ever met in my life. She's a landscape architect.
00:27We work with architects, engineers, environmental scientists, those people like that.
00:31My background is civil engineering, systems ecology, and urban planning, so I'm seriously schizophrenic.
00:39And before I start, I'd, I'd really like to just take a short time to give this little anecdotic story that I think sets where we're at.
00:49And it's, it's not meant to be funny, but it's meant to pontificate without actually looking like I'm doing that, I guess.
00:57So there's a sparrow and a robin and they're up north. And this…it's, winter is approaching and the sparrow says…
01:06…to the robin, "We better get going. You know, I mean, it's…winter's going to set in; we're going to be in trouble."
01:10And the robin says, "No sweat, don't worry, I've got it. I know the system. I'll take care of you. I'm your friend."
01:17A little while later, a big storm comes in and it's starting to snow and freeze, and the robin goes…
01:21…"Wow, we got to get out of here. We're in trouble." And they start flying south and the sparrow says to the robin…
01:27…"Robin, my wings are icing. I'm in trouble." And the robin says, "You're on your own."
01:31About that time, the sparrow starts spiraling down out of the sky and he falls in this really big pile of steamy…
01:38…moist, wet, soft cow manure. And he's going, "Man, I'm going to die and I'm in a pile of manure."
01:46And he realizes it's melting his wings, okay?
01:48And he's going to be able to live. And he starts to chirp and sing and everything and a cat comes by and eats him.
01:54And there's some, there's some morals to this, okay. And the first moral is, not everybody that says they are your friend is, okay.
02:02Secondly, not everybody that tells you they know the system does.
02:06And the corollary here is, all models are bad, some models are useful, okay.
02:12Another one is that every time you fall in a pile of manure, it's not necessarily a bad thing.
02:19And the last one is, when you're warm and happy, keep your mouth shut, okay.
02:22And I'm always scared when somebody asks me to do this, 'cause I'm up here starting to sing and I'm waiting for this cat, okay, so.
02:30So with that, I'll try to go on. There are significant people that have helped us over the years.
02:34Peggy and I started doing this. Abdulnaser Arafat is one of my doctoral students.
02:38He's now a postdoc at the University of Florida. I like to tease Naser - we call him Naser - that I'm Doctor Arafat's chair, okay.
02:45And then the other one is Iris Patten, who's now faculty member at the University of Arizona. And where did I point this?
02:52Oop, I'm pointing the wrong thing, okay.
02:54The presentation today, I want to start with a little bit of an understanding about Florida so you know where we're coming from.
02:59Talk a little bit about why I believe geodesign's important.
03:02Look at the MyRegion project, which I think helped some of that.
03:05Talk to you about what we're doing with LUCIS Plus. LUCIS is the land-use conflict identification strategy…
03:11…and the students came up with this really cool idea of planning land-use scenarios, so that's where the Plus came from.
03:17And now they got land-use W and land-use E for water and energy and stuff like that.
03:21And the fun part about being in academics is you allow your students the freedom to, to play.
03:26And then what lessons are learned.
03:28How geodesign, what the geodesign educational opportunities are in the school of landscape architecture…
03:33…and planning at U of F.
03:34And then an interesting geodesign problem that I hope I can get to, but I'm a classic academic, more…
03:39…slides than I probably should have. So why geodesign?
03:44I think it's first and formidably the best solution for this problem that we have that's called disjointed incrementalism.
03:51And what disjointed incrementalism does, and I'm going to paraphrase Carl here, and Carl said that geodesign is…
03:58…geography changing, change by design.
04:00Well, disjointed incrementalism is geography changed by institutional happenstance.
04:05And the incremental changes that occur over time are done so in such a local decision way that with the absence…
04:12…of no regional context. And so what happens is you get what we call Florida sprawl.
04:17And by the way, we do Florida sprawl really well, okay.
04:20And what happens is you get this occurring, and you don't know it's occurring until all of a sudden it's there.
04:26And to paraphrase Doug Olson yesterday, he might say that, that disjointed incrementalism is the vector…
04:33…for the global disease that he was talking about. So what happened?
04:38How did we get all started? We did a lot of green waste planning and stuff like that. People started to ask us how…
04:43…land-use changed. And then he asked us to take a look at what Florida might look like in 2060.
04:49And so we have this way that we deal with, and the population was going to go from roughly 18 million people…
04:54…to 36 million people, projections. That's not going to change much.
04:59Florida has, even with the economic downturns and the, and the…the housing market doing what it's doing and everything else…
05:06…Florida is not going to change that much.
05:08There will be something changing, but it won't be this idea that people are not coming to the state of Florida for that particular reason.
05:16And it's interesting to look at.
05:17What we did with this is, we looked at, at urban densities, but we looked at them a different way.
05:21We started to look at gross urban density.
05:23We started to look at what the total population was and what the urban footprint was, and how could we use that?
05:28Could we use that in a very, very large regional context, which was Florida.
05:33And the interesting part here is, in people per acre, not units per acre, not square foot of commercial infrastructure…
05:40…or those kinds of things. People per acre. Alachua County has 1.7 people per acre.
05:46Per - in the urbanized area - 1.7 people per acre, okay.
05:51Miami Dade, and I don't know if you've been to Miami, but Miami is pretty dense. Miami Dade is about 15 people per acre.
05:56Orange County is about 4. Gilcrest County, half a person per acre. And if all of a sudden they start, oh, you get to spill over…
06:04…and they start developing at a rate, they're developing it, that historic rate of a half a person per acre…
06:09…and you're eating up land like you wouldn't believe, and so what happens is, that's what Florida looks like in 2005.
06:16The light blue is water. The green is existing conservation lands. We bought a lot of conservation lands in the state of Florida.
06:23And then the brownish-red colors are the current development. The 2060 projection looks like that.
06:30It pretty well puts to rest that inverted U that is supposed to be the megalopolis that starts in Miami…
06:35…goes up to I-4, crosses I-4, and comes back down.
06:38The whole peninsula is going to be a megalopolis, by the way, by the turn, unless we do something different.
06:44And that means we're going to have to structurally change the way we look at the world and the way we look at government.
06:50If you did what, if you looked at what we did, we actually went from 6 million acres of urban to 13 million acres of urban.
06:56We held the conservation lands constant in this model for a reason. They asked us to.
07:01They wanted to know what the development would look like on places where they were proposing new conservation…
07:05…lands, and the only way to do that was to look at the modeling structure. So, how is…what is LUCIS?
07:12Okay, what does it do? It's a process for land-use analysis and population allocation, which comes after the identification.
07:19Using traditional suitability is, and to try and identify conflict.
07:23So it's essentially a traditional suitability model with some really nice additions, I think.
07:30The MyRegion project was done for East Central Florida Regional Planning Council.
07:34And I want to give Phil Laurien, the director of East Central Florida, who's now retired…
07:38…and Claudia Paskauskas - that's a mouthful - credit for doing a lot of what we did. Taking what we did and adding, and adding to it.
07:48Doing environmental, some environmental analysis, looking at REMI models for economic data and those things.
07:56And so the project, to cut it short 'cause I want to go by some slides so I can talk more about others.
08:01They really believed in this idea that their region was, was developing in this disjointed incremental fashion.
08:08That it was the typical sprawling development within the areas. The view was that it was environmentally unhealthy.
08:14The urban environment wasn't efficient and wasn't particularly exciting.
08:18There was nothing about that urban environment with, with unit after unit after unit with a palm tree in the front yard and…
08:23…some stuff like that, that was particularly exciting. Nice weather, not particularly…
08:27'Course, if you've been at Florida in July and August, I'm not necessarily sure it's nice weather, okay. So this is what it looked like.
08:34And if we kept doing, since…since the year 2000, the region added 300,000 new housing units and over a half a million…
08:41…new residents, and it looked like that. In 2050, with some of the stuff we looked at, if we continue to develop…
08:52…the way we do, we'll have built 2,340,000 new units, single-family housing mostly, okay.
09:00We'll commit to a pattern of commuter that will double the road network and traffic will get worse.
09:06We'll have 344 square miles of sensitive habitat that will lost to urbanization in just this MyRegion area…
09:12… and you'll see where that's at in a minute.
09:14I apologize for that. And we'll consume 2,577 additional square miles of urban land.
09:20And at the time, we don't know what the heck gas prices are going to be in 2060, we have no idea.
09:29MyRegion, the strategic planning task force had seven senior members on it and the regional board had 226 members…
09:36…as Doug was talking about. You get a chance to interact with people.
09:39And these people are real estate agents, they're developers, they're environmental scientists, they're…
09:44…environmentalists, they're planners, they're just interested general public, okay.
09:49And if you've ever been in a land-use meeting, the four-letter words come flying.
09:54Okay, when you start to tell somebody that you're not going to allow them to develop or do something on their private property…
10:00…the way they want to do it, you can actually have your life threatened.
10:04I was in Monroe County at one time when I was a graduate student, we were working on critical lands of state concern.
10:09There were two highway patrols on either side of myself and my major professor.
10:13And this person came up and said, "I'd like to give you both 100 acres of my land."
10:17And John said, "Well, I can't do that. That's a bribe." And the guy said, "No, no, no, no. I want you to have 100 acres…
10:23…of my land 'cause I want you to understand what it really means to me for what you're talking about doing."
10:29And John said, "I'm sorry, we do understand, and, but we can't take the land."
10:33And he said, "In that case, don't come down here, 'cause I'll bury you on it."
10:37And I went, "That's a wallet issue. That's a…." When you're dealing with people's private property and you're doing…
10:44…land-use analysis, you're going to deal with some really intense issues, and I think Doug got to that the other day.
10:49He had a person screaming. I'm a tenured faculty member of the university, I can say it differently, I think.
10:56So what did it look like in 2005? The 2005 snapshot looked like this.
11:00Now the color, I took these right out of their report, which, by the way, you can go online at…
11:06…eastcentralfloridaregionalplanningcouncil.org, or ecfrpc.org, and you can get the summary report for this thing.
11:13It has a DVD in it, too. The urban area is 2,600 square miles. The habitat destroyed during that process was roughly 394 square miles.
11:23That indicator I don't really understand very well.
11:28Green acres, the green areas was about 2,100 square miles, or 24 percent.
11:31Thirty-four-mile average speed for what's commute. Zero miles of passenger rail.
11:38A hundred and 18 billion dollars of gross regional product in 2000 dollars, and the average wage was about $35,000.
11:46And the existing urban density centers looked like this. So that's an area.
11:50Seven counties. It's Volusia County; Seminole County; Lake County; Orange County; Brevard County,…
11:56…which is where Cape Canaveral, Cape Kennedy is; Polk County; and Highlands - or Osceola County, excuse me.
12:05And one of the areas of interest that later on is to do here, that, there's a big huge development that's been proposed…
12:10…down there called Destiny. I'm not sure, way out in the middle of nowhere like that, that would be my destiny.
12:16I hope it's not, but the reality is there is that going on. So I apologize. You now know I am not a designer…
12:23…'cause there wouldn't be a designer in the world who would put up a colored map that would look like that, okay.
12:28But what happens is, we ran the LUCIS process and we find out, we get conflicts, and I'll tell you exactly how…
12:33…that's done in a second. But it turns out that white area and the black area is preferred for urban use the way we look at it.
12:40It's about 18.8 percent of the area, agriculture's about 10.2 percent, conservation is about 28.7 percent…
12:47…and then we deal with minor and major conflicts for a total of about 2 million 460-some thousand acres of land…
12:54…there, and it's, in that total area. And so what happens is, they began to look at these, these ideas.
13:02And we always deal with a trend, 'cause there are no perfect plans. There's no such thing as a perfect plan.
13:08If you don't have something to compare it to, so we start off with a trend and we compare everything we do to…
13:12…that trend to try and figure out what it is we've got.
13:15And if you look here, the description of the trend says most development occurs in suburbs farther from traditional centers.
13:21Most housing is single story, single family. They're on one-third to one-half acre lots.
13:26There are a few bike paths and no leafy walking trails - well, no walking trails.
13:30People drive to jobs, schools, doctors, stores, and strip malls. We do strip malls really well.
13:36The very young and very old have to depend on people to get them around. There are limited bus services…
13:40…commuter run miles in this scenario was 43 miles from DeLand to Kissimmee.
13:46There was about 344 square miles of conservation areas that would have been lost - sensitive wildlife areas…
13:54…about the size of Manhattan. We would… The area would increase about 1.7 times to the size of Rhode Island, okay.
14:06And it would double if the land area urbanized that started in 1565 with the Native American Indians, all the way to 2005.
14:14And I don't want to spend a lot of time on this, but the economic growth in the area doubled to about $421 billion…
14:21…and it would employ roughly 3,768,000 people.
14:28So that was the, some of the economic analysis, and that's the trend.
14:31Now the yellow up here, that yellow, that gray is the existing, the yellow is all the new urban development.
14:37And you can see that the people are really going to do this. Now once you do that, you start to ask people questions.
14:44Is this what you want? And virtually everybody, including even real estate people, do not really want to see that.
14:51They really don't want sprawl. They want some other way to deal with what's going on.
14:56 And so what happens is, we brought in 3,000 people, we had two visioning games, they put down 65,000 dots…
15:03…of where they thought the density ought to go, and we integrated that to try and come up with these places where…
15:07…density could be. Now you can game this.
15:10There's no doubt about it, and as I think Doug would tell you and Carl will tell you, it's easy to game the system…
15:14…and in fact, you can see that the people that were interested in what was going on down there in, in Destiny…
15:21…were gaming the system. So because you bring the general public in doesn't mean it's the absolute correct…
15:27There is no absolute correct answer.
15:29On the other hand, if you bring the people in and you get people involved, and we had this, by the time we were done…
15:35…it was presented on the regional TV for about four hours. There were, there were general public voting on this kind of thing…
15:42…for the particular scenarios that they enjoyed.
15:46So the three scenarios were green area scenario, a center scenario that was pretty much cities, towns, and villages…
15:52…connected by basic rail, okay. And then there was this corridor idea, which was intense light rail, street cars, commuter rail…
16:00…representations, and that.
16:01And these were just visions of what they would like to see or what they thought they might be interested in.
16:07The green area scenario turns out that instead of developing the way it would, the region turned out to have…
16:14…39 percent urban and 51 percent conservation, with 10 percent undeveloped, which was a significant saving.
16:22There was 2,483 square miles of proposed new conservation lands, and an addition of 4,627 square miles…
16:30…of conservation land equaling one-half the size of the state of Vermont.
16:35They really, they really began to want that. This is just the green area scenario. It didn't win, by the way.
16:40The wildlife routes are preserved. There's greenbelts. There's connectivity.
16:44You can see that the connectivity in the dark areas are the existing conservation, the light greens are…
16:50…the corridors, okay. The gray, again, is the same urbanized area.
16:55It turns out that the air quality didn't get a whole lot better in any one of these scenarios.
17:01In fact, it got worse than 2005. Water consumption was 8 percent less than the trend.
17:06As a result of the increased density in urban areas, there were 200,000 more jobs than the trend, and the economic…
17:13…value was $448 billion worth of gross regional product, which is 6 percent, 6 1/2 percent larger than…
17:20…trend, and there were 3,966,000 employees, or employment.
17:26And the urban areas began to look like that. The…they became denser, obviously.
17:32So we did the same thing with the center scenario. And the center scenarios, they began to work with this idea of…
17:37…where would they want centers? And as you can see, Destiny didn't win out as one of the centers, but the…
17:43…other places began to say, We would really like to be urbanized areas.
17:47And when we looked at this, the development, it got, got denser. It grew vertically as well.
17:53In the Garden Cities areas, there are greenbelt conservation, 4,198 square miles, or 47 percent of the region was still in greenways.
18:04Air quality was 17 1/2 percent better, and the water consumption was 8 percent less.
18:09So it didn't change the water consumption much.
18:11People were…you had biking, you had transit opportunities and those kinds of things.
18:16The total employment was 4,123,000 people, which is 355 thousand more.
18:23 And the gross domestic product was $460 billion.
18:29Now I'm doing this rapidly, I understand that, but that's what happens in 35-minute presentations.
18:34And the center areas looked like this, in terms of their densities.
18:38So then they went and said, okay, let's look at the corridors.
18:41And the corridors turned out to have a massive amount of transit, which wasn't realistic…
18:46…but the…the 226 people wanted to see what that will look like. So transit is the transportation backbone of the region in this scenario.
18:56Cities are encouraged to create taller, one-third mile of transit stops - taller development within one-third miles of transit stops.
19:04Many vacant strip centers became new, new town centers.
19:08There is a 413-mile system of commuter rails, light rails, and that. That's an incredible amount, you know, of rail, to say the least.
19:16The average person spends 1.3 hours per day in the car, which is less than what was going on at 1.5 hours per...
19:23…day in the car with, with the trend.
19:26Residential side streets generally remain intact.
19:29The buildings were taller, the neighborhoods looked and are similar to the centers but were more like a…
19:33So this is sort of their idea at the time of a really mass-transit TOD operation.
19:39Because the urban footprint is denser along the rail lines, the amount of urban land consumed from 2005 to 2050…
19:45…is just 660 square miles. It's not in the thousands. We cut it into basically someplace in the range of about a third.
19:56The region is 36 percent urban. Total conservation land is 3,816 square miles, and there's 42 percent of the region.
20:03Twenty-one percent of the region remains undeveloped. Air quality is 9 percent better. Water is, is 9 percent less. Consumption is 9…
20:11The economy is stimulated by the ease of moving people. More affordable housing choices are in the mix of land uses.
20:18The gross domestic product is $513 billion, 22 percent more than the trend, and there are 4,225,000 employees…
20:30…employment for the same number of people.
20:35The urban centers, clearly you can see, and that's Orlando in the center right there, that's Orlando in the center.
20:41Well, it turns out that they then went back and they started to look at the results.
20:45And what they found out was - and this blue, this light blue here, is always going to be the trend…
20:49They calculated some acres wrong so I hid them, so I covered up their mistake.
20:54So what happens is, you have a population of 3,500,000 to start with.
20:58You end up with 7,123,000 people in the region when you get done.
21:03The developed, or committed urban lands, it…in, existing is 2,600 acres, the trend is 5,000 acres…
21:12…the green area is 3,500 acres; the centers is 3,400 acres; and the corridors, 3,200 acres.
21:20Again, you can see along the way, in terms of the number of persons per acre, is 2.15, at this time,…
21:27…and it increases from 2.15 to 3.15 to 3.22 to 3.44.
21:32Not a huge amount of, of people per acre in gross urban density.
21:39The environmental indicators, it turns out again that conservation lands, there was 2,144.
21:45The trend didn't add any existing conservation lands.
21:48And by the way, the State of Florida has just stopped its land purchase at this particular time because of the economy.
21:53So they really aren't buying lands now.
21:56The green acres has 4,600, the centers has 4,200, and the corridors has 3,800, so it has less conservation lands.
22:05Again, if you look at what's going on in terms of threatened and endangered species habitat areas, there was 394.
22:11That's an additional 344 square miles. Instead it went to 44, 45, and 28.
22:19We didn't…by the way we developed, the pattern that we chose to help them develop with, and the pattern they chose…
22:24…that we helped implement, or model, reduced the loss of endangered species, biodiversity…
22:31…habitat that supported endangered species, wetlands, any number of other things.
22:35I think it was Doug the other day, said about wetlands, it turns out, why would a farmer drain a wetland?
22:42Well, in Florida, it's not necessarily a farmer. We've got lands that are called agricultural lands not zoned for agriculture.
22:50Interesting title, right? What does that mean?
22:52That means that as an agriculture person, I can declare it a wetland, then I can develop it, okay.
22:58So you can't develop, you can't clear wetlands in Florida to do development, but you can clear wetlands in Florida…
23:04…for agricultural use.
23:05And so what happens is, there's now a code in the property parcel dataset that says, "agricultural lands not zoned for agriculture."
23:11Or if you want to leave your lands in agriculture and collect an agricultural exemption, okay, there's a place…
23:19…in this area and it's called The Villages. It's an incredibly interesting place for retirement.
23:24Everybody's driving around with their Gator flags and their Auburn flags and their Harvard flags.
23:28I don't think they do Harvard flags, okay. But what happens is, they're driving around in their golf carts with…
23:32…these flags and everything else, and they're golfing and doing all this stuff, and they're…they got the biggest real estate program…
23:38…in the nation, and they bring people in and they're developing.
23:41A man owns 24 square miles down there and he's got a couple of the square miles down there with a buffalo on…
23:47…each of the square miles and he gets an agricultural exemption, okay, to defer the costs.
23:54Transportation indicators, okay. The one I think that's interesting here, you…I'll be glad to go over this…
24:02…but I think it's more important to look at the cost of what adding that new, all those new rail in, okay.
24:08The trend, no out of beltway and with some 43 miles of that is $22 billion worth of…
24:15…and this, you'll notice, I think this is the 2000, this is 2060, or 2050, there's $22 billion worth of development.
24:24In the green areas, there's $34 billion worth of development for the new roads, okay and the…
24:30…new transit opportunities, or the new transit. The centers has 44 billion, and the corridors has 44 billion.
24:39So in other words, that big jump in the economic indicators that we're talking about, okay, didn't all…
24:44…occur because they were building rail.
24:47So there were new jobs that were created that were permanent jobs, not jobs created to just generate rail…
24:52…but there was a significant amount of economic opportunity that occurred in building the rail.
24:57And then clearly, there is a private-sector investment that goes all along rail that's unbelievable.
25:02In fact, all you have to do is look at Portland, Oregon, and they've got a couple billion dollars' worth of…
25:07…private-sector investment along their rail areas. Again, some indicators. The average speed…
25:15You notice, the trend is, is basically 33 miles per hour, the, or I mean, today it's 33. The trend is 21, 21, 25, and 23.
25:27It doesn't change that much, 'cause urban area…the most amazing places in the world - New York, Paris, San Francisco,…
25:35…Boston - they're congested because they're cities. Cities are congested.
25:41Some of the most creative places are congested.
25:43The solution, in my opinion, and here's the academic in me, is not to go try to figure out how to do new roads…
25:48…but let's get some mass transit into here. And you're still not going to decrease the congestion…
25:53…'cause cities are going to be congested. It's, it's the, it's the, the way that cities work. That doesn't mean they have to be bad, okay.
26:01That doesn't mean you can't get to where you work faster or those kinds of things.
26:06It depends on your mode choice for how you want to get there. The economic and water indicators, okay…
26:13…17 hundred million gallons a day on the trend, 1,500 and 70 million gallons a day for the green acres…
26:20…1,560 and 1,550. The water consumption doesn't change that much. That's going to require other kinds of technology.
26:26It doesn't change based on the land uses as much.
26:31So population projections. This was really interesting because it, it started a general discussion that some…
26:36…people would actually be better doing the sprawl than they would be in doing the other alternatives.
26:41And so what happens, if you look at Brevard County under the…the BEBR moderate projections by 2050…
26:47…they would have 932,000 people. The green acres was 914. The centers would be 958. They would go up…
26:54…because they have an attraction of more. The corridors would be 967, and the trend would be 888.
27:00They wouldn't actually get as much in the trend. They would begin to attract because of the centers.
27:04A tract development attracts some people, attract job opportunities, and attract other activities based on the fact…
27:11…that they were developing in some center particular strategy. So how does LUCIS work? Now I showed you what it is.
27:19We won a national award for best, best use of technology by a university. And My Region won best use of technology…
27:25…by a regional planning, planning organization from the APA for that project.
27:31And so, LUCIS really is not…it's…and Peggy…Peggy is an incredibly interesting person.
27:39I wanted to call it LUCAS, L-U-C-A-S, for land-use conflict analysis strategy.
27:44Peggy wanted to call it land-use conflict identification strategy. You know who wins in these discussions, okay?
27:50I've been married 40 years, I'm well trained, okay. I tease my students, I'm a magic wallet. Money shows up in it.
27:57I have…my wife's an accountant. I have absolutely no idea where, where any of our investments are or anything like that, you know.
28:04I'm the reverse. If she dies, I don't know where to go. There's a, there's a safe, and I'm supposed to go in there and do something, okay.
28:10So the LUCIS project, we…we start by developing goals, objectives, and subobjectives, and we model those.
28:16We model suitability reflecting those goals, objectives and subobjectives.
28:20We create preference from suitability, and I'll show you how to do that.
28:22We either normalize or transform that preference into a way that we can…we collapse it into categories of high,…
28:29…medium, and low, and then we use those collapsed preferences to help us identify land-use conflict and land-use alternatives…
28:35…or land-use opportunities, as well. So here's just some example, okay.
28:42So with a, a subobjective, three goals. We have these three major goals. For greenfield development…
28:48…we look at agriculture, we look at conservation, we look at urban.
28:52Depending upon where we're at, conservation might actually be titled ecological significance…
28:56…'cause people do not like to hear the word conservation. I'm not exactly sure why.
29:01They just don't like to, to have it that way. So rather than argue about a miniscule point, we change it.
29:06But I work with doctoral students, and so you'll notice that that process is in alphabetic order…
29:12…agriculture, conservation, and urban. That way they can't forget it.
29:16Okay, so when we're dealing with these numbers, the reality is, keep it the KIS method, keep it simple.
29:23And so we model things like multifamily use, we model single-family use. We model commercial, retail,…
29:29…service, industrial, institutional, entertainment. That's just in the urban area.
29:34We model biodiversity, species biodiversity, habitat biodiversity, surface water, underground water.
29:40We model connectivity, habitat connectivity. In agriculture, we look at the various different forms of agriculture…
29:47…including the orchards, including high intensity like cattle and pigs, chickens.
29:55We model low intensity. The horses, the horse farms that we have and those kinds of things like that.
29:59We model each and every one of those. There's 500 different models, I think, in this.
30:04And by the way, it's not…it's going to be easier to use than it actually is right now.
30:09Like problem with working with doctoral students, okay. The suitability for the goals, then, and that's - there's one of our models.
30:16I like, I like our…we decided to have our models go from bottom to top, 'cause everybody else's goes from left to right, okay.
30:23And I'm at a university and I can't figure out how to go from the left to the right. It just never, I don't do that very well.
30:29So what I…that must have missed everybody, okay, yeah. I don't go conservative, okay, so.
30:35So what happens is, we model this. And this is the noise for single family.
30:39And when…what you look at is, we're looking at airports, the regional parcels. What kind of parcels might generate noise?
30:44Active rail, interstates, major roads, power plants, water treatment facilities, sewer treatment facilities.
30:51This is a deterministic model. This is not a stochastic model.
30:55I don't know how many times I've gone into a land-use meeting and I've said, in fact, I will do it right here.
31:01How many of you would like to live next to a prison? Oh, my God.
31:04How many of you would like to live next to a prison? How many would like to live next to a sewage treatment plant?
31:11Right? You run a stochastic model, those are going to come up not significant.
31:15Nobody in here except Carl said he would like to live next to a prison, okay.
31:18I would suggest that's a significant variable, and the way to deal with it is, is these deterministic models.
31:24So now I'm going to have to go real fast, 'cause I have five minutes.
31:26That's what that model looks like, and it turns out that up in Seminole County, there's a lot more noise.
31:32So we look at the standard stuff. Oops.
31:34We look at the standard stuff - hazards, air quality, floods - to do the physical, and we weight those…
31:39…okay, and so weighted suitability model. We do the same thing for prisons, entertainment, water and sewer facilities, okay.
31:46Existing single family, retail, environmental amenities; and this is a single-family model that I'm dealing with.
31:53Major roadways and services, and we weight those. And then we look at the existing land uses.
31:59What land use is good for single-family residential? In Florida, agriculture. But some agriculture isn't.
32:05If you're raising palm trees, that's a very, very valuable land…
32:09…especially if you're putting those palm trees as part of the landscaping for the various single-family residential…
32:15…properties that are current.
32:16We model the density and we look at three, three decades of density. We model a historic growth over a three-decade period of time.
32:24And then we take this, the physical, the proximal, the existing land uses, the density, and the growth history…
32:30…and we turn that into an existing category.
32:34Next, we take the stakeholders and we ask them to help us.
32:37And then they, they help us determine what's important among those categories.
32:41This is those people in the, in communities. This isn't experts.
32:44This is the 3,000 people, or the people who are beginning to work on, on…that you're beginning to work with.
32:49And when we're done with that, if this goes forward, you get an urban category.
32:54Now we have urban, we have agriculture, and we have conservation.
32:59We also have single-family residential, multifamily residential, we have all those available.
33:04And so what happens now is, we can collapse those. And one way to collapse those is you can just do these natural breaks.
33:09You can collapse what you've got in that raster…raster and vector.
33:13You can use natural breaks, you can use manual method, you can use equal intervals.
33:17I've become a proponent of equal intervals. I used to be a proponent of standard deviation…
33:21…but I've become a huge proponent of the equal intervals. It keep everything in the same scale much better.
33:27When you get done with it, you take this kind of a thing and you begin to drop it into three categories…
33:31…where the green is high preference, the yellow is low preference, and the red is, or I mean the yellow is…
33:37…moderate preference and the red is low preference.
33:39And so that's what a natural break looks like.
33:41And you can see between those three, just trying to give you this idea, it does matter how you do it.
33:48The next part of this is, we identify the conflict. And this is the very…this is simple. It requires math.
33:54Anything you do with rasters requires some kind of math.
33:57So we take the ag categories of "three-two-one" and multiply them times 100. This is graduate-level PhD math, okay.
34:05You take the three-two-one, you multiply it by a hundred. For the…for the conservation, okay, it's ACU.
34:11You take the three-two-one; you multiply it by 10; and the urban, you leave it alone.
34:15Now you add them all together and you end up with numbers that look like three-three-three.
34:19That's a high preference on all three of those categories. That's conflict, okay.
34:24Where you get a three-two-one, you have a high agricultural preference, a moderate conservation preference…
34:27…and a low urban preference, okay. Probably not going to develop really quickly. So you end up with 27 categories.
34:35I'm not going to go through all of them, okay, but what happens is, you can see that that gives you a really, really…
34:40…flexible way to look at things on very incrementally small areas.
34:45The next one is, you try to keep it in the same category.
34:48So now you're looking at commercial, multifamily, and retail for mixed-use opportunity, and you can do exactly the same thing.
34:55So now, inside of urban areas, we can begin to look at what we've got for mixed-use opportunities…
35:01…using exactly the same thing. And I love the one-one-ones. Everybody goes, Why the one-one-ones?
35:13Three-three-three is a high preference. If I'm looking for mixed use, that three-three-three is a really good place.
35:21So one of the things we do next is, we start to do scenario development.
35:25And our scenario development turns around and says, let's look at a mixed use redevelopment.
35:29And we…the students love these ideas. Well, it turns out, I guess, the dashboards are these spreadsheets, too.
35:36And so what happens now is, we create spreadsheets.
35:38And we'll do something like use census blocks and transportation analysis zones 'cause the person who was from…
35:43…California the other day got up and did this presentation and said, "I have to know stuff in these really little areas."
35:48Well, we have to be able to summarize it back up. So all this locational stuff helps us summarize it back up.
35:54The next thing we do is, we add in that conflict. Right over here is the conflict. And we add in the, the suitability levels.
36:01And after the suitability levels, we can add in the acres that we're working with and the actual parcel acres.
36:06We have parcel IDs, so we can flip back and forth between the actual vector datasets as well as the raster datasets.
36:13And from there, we use this, this allocation by year and population. We can allocate employment, we can allocate population…
36:19…we can do it by year. We have gross urban densities and those kinds of things. So we jump into this spreadsheet.
36:25And that spreadsheet's pretty interesting, 'cause it's got 5.5 million records.
36:29So you've got some real interesting suitability out there, and you've got it at small scale.
36:35And I've got a feeling I'm about ready to go off, so. Here's the redevelopment mask. I'm going to go up for one more minute.
36:41I'm just - I'm going to pull a Carl. Stop. Okay, so.
36:44And what happens is, now I can look inside the redevelopment areas for the mixed use.
36:48And that right there is redevelopment commercial. This is redevelopment retail. That's redevelopment multifamily.
36:58You put them all together and I want you to look, oops. I want you to look at this area right in here, okay.
37:05The redevelopment retail, the multifamily, and right here you can see there's those points.
37:11It automatically comes along and tells you where, where your mixed-use opportunities are best. We've put it together with greenfield.
37:20That's what the trend looked like with the 7.1 million. This is a composite. They…they couldn't do the, the rail…all that rail.
37:27 So they asked us to put together the composite. We put it together the way I just described.
37:32We did the next one, and it turns out we put seven million people on one quarter the area.
37:37We saved the entire ecological plan, and we never even really did the…had to run into conflict with any of the ecological areas.
37:46Now if you go to a land-use meeting, you walk into that meeting, and that large developer has that…
37:50…land out there and you go, "We just saved all that development on the land you want to develop,"…
37:54…they're not necessarily happy. Do you want me to quit?
38:00Okay. This is a very interesting mix. We can take that and try to figure out, what, what would be the mix when you did it?
38:07So this idea of, of, if you believe in suitability, we have commercial, retail, and multifamily, we can come up…
38:13…with what a commercial mix looks like. Look at this area, this area, and this area. That's the commercial percentage.
38:20That's the retail percentage, and that's the multifamily percentage. So watch this right here.
38:26That's…that's multifamily. Not really good for retail, but really good for commercial.
38:32There's commercial office place and mixed-use residential opportunity in that whole entire area right there.
38:37And we know what percentages that, that development might, might look at.
38:45This is a new way of doing a proximity. Those are all the multifamily units in the, the area. That's all the commercial opportunity.
38:55There's all the transit centers on the rail, or I mean, not on the rail, on the bus routes, okay.
39:01And we now look at walkability to those areas and then we do network analysis to come up with network…
39:07…accessibility from multi - all the multifamily units to all the commercial activity. That's built into the model.
39:15And so, lessons learned, and this is where I'll stop for you.
39:19Regional urban form can be determined using GIS. It really is a matter of using technology.
39:28Regional geodesign models can produce results that are summarized to local areas, making geodesign proactive,…
39:34…flexible, and community based, and I took that directly from your work.
39:38Existing land-use plans can be compared to multiple regional geodesign scenarios and assist decision makers.
39:46Regional geodesign allows the development of policy alternatives that do not restrict design creativity.
39:52I'm going to say something affectionately here about architects because I'm an associate dean in a program that…
39:57…has a lot of architects, but landscape architects and almost all designers, you're out there all the same.
40:04Most of those schools are called schools of architecture, okay. So that's SOA, okay.
40:09Well anybody ever watch the program Sons of Anarchy? If you've ever been in on an architecture faculty meeting, it, it…
40:17…you're not going to go to a designer and say, "Here. Here's a form base. I want it to look this way." It's not going to happen.
40:24You have to allow them the creativity to practice their profession, but you have to have some kind of regional context…
40:29…that guides that. This process, I think, we're…hopefully, this process is useful in that particular method.
40:36Planners and urban designers can analyze and identify important regional parameters and still allow designers…
40:41…the freedom to create exciting urban spaces, and regional geodesign has the potential to change our antiquated…
40:51…disjointed incremental development policies. And if we do that, we've done a really big thing in just geodesign as it is. Thank you.
Regional GeoDesign for Land Use Analysis
Paul Zwick from the University of Florida presents urban and regional modeling scenarios for Orange County, Florida, through the MyRegion Regional Visioning Project.
- Recorded: Jan 6th, 2012
- Runtime: 40:59
- Views: 22717
- Published: Jun 26th, 2012
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